The Showdown EPL DFS slate brings a crucial match between Tottenham and Arsenal. Up for grabs is the final spot for the Champions League, with Chelsea staying ahead in third. Tottenham cannot jump ahead of Arsenal with a win, but a loss will all but hand the Gunners the spot. Tottenham comes in at +115 (BetMGM) on the moneyline, and the over on the 2.5 goals is -125 (BetMGM). Both defenses are in top half of the EPL in home/away splits. Tottenham allows 1.05 expected goals at home, which ranks fourth in the EPL. Arsenal is seventh in the EPL on the road with 1.45 expected goals per match. Tottenham produces 1.80 expected goals per match, while Arsenal is at 1.35 on the road. The over seems like a solid spot with no shortage of firepower from both sides.
EPL DFS Picks Today: DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Soccer
Son Heung-Min (DraftKings: $18,000, FanDuel $15)
Harry Kane (DraftKings: $14,700, FanDuel $14)
Tottenham is in a must-win match, and it has two offensive weapons that have carried the load for them over the last two seasons. Son Heung-Min leads the club in scoring and contributes on 50% of goals. He averages 2.45 shots per match and 52% on-target accuracy. Heung-Min builds a floor with 6.73 crosses per match and 3.79 scoring chances created. His volume and sole possession of set shares makes him the cash play at the Captain spot.
Harry Kane is the GPP goal-hunting option. The salary relief he offers over Heung-Min allows for a more balanced build. Kane creates 3.17 scoring chances and 3.37 shots per match. He handles the penalties for Tottenham and contributes on 38.8% of its scoring. Pairing the two attackers is the way to attack this Showdown with Flex value plays to fill the roster below.
Martin Odegaard (DraftKings: $7,400, FanDuel $11)
Ryan Sessegnon (DraftKings: $4,800, FanDuel $5)
Arsenal has a number of contributors. Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli lead the way in goal contribution, while Martin Odegaard has 18% contribution. Odegaard averages 1.61 shots per match and a team-leading 4.37 scoring chances created. His 2.41 won tackles/interceptions will see a bump when halting the Tottenham attack. He handles some set shares and comes in as the cheapest goal contribution option for Arsenal.
Tottenham’s wingbacks have lifted the offense. Ryan Sessegnon averages 4.42 won tackles/interceptions per match. He also offers 1.16 scoring chances created and 2.21 open-play crosses per match. The salary is easy enough to pay off with goal contribution upside very much in play.
Eddie Nketiah (DraftKings: $9,400, FanDuel $10)
The ownership for Arsenal will gravitate to Saka with his floor built on crossing volume and upside mixed between penalty shares and over 2.25 shots per match. Eddie Nketiah is priced up and will receive lower ownership than he should. In cash games, it is impossible to fit him with Kane, Saka and Heung-Min. Saka would be the pay up from Arsenal in cash games. Nketiah over Saka in GPP is leverage considering his brace upside and recent form. Nketiah has four goals in five starts for the Gunners. His shot volume in full-match run at 3.43 leads the club, and he has an on-target rate of 43.5%. To go full boom or bust, he can provide that at the Captain spot with Heung-Min and one of Saka or Kane in the Flex. Arsenal wants to come away from this match with points just the same as Tottenham, and Nketiah has been a big factor in rescuing their Champions League hopes.
Other Options: Bukayo Saka (DraftKings: $10,600, FanDuel $13), Nuno Tavares (DraftKings: $5,600, FanDuel $4), Dejan Kulusevski (DraftKings: $7,800, FanDuel $12).
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