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Corner Kick: EPL DFS Picks for Matchday 5 with Manchester City | 9/18/21

Jovanni Vidal



EPL DFS Picks. Awesemo's expert strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer lineups, including Manchester City on Saturday.

Welcome to the English Premier League DFS coverage for Saturday, Sept. 18. Here you will find the top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.

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**All Odds from BetMGM**

Burnley (+290) vs. Arsenal (+100), O/U 2.5

Norwich City (+115) vs. Watford (+240), O/U 2.5

Liverpool (-450) vs. Crystal Palace (+1,250), O/U 3.5

Manchester City (-700) vs. Southampton (+1,850), O/U 3.5

Aston Villa (+135) vs. Everton (+200), O/U 2.5


Teemu Pukki (DraftKings: $5,600, FanDuel: $18)

Milot Rashica (DraftKings: $5,100, FanDuel: $12)

Norwich City welcomes Watford to Carrow Road. There are two massive favorites on the slate, which cannot be ignored. Norwich offers the matchup and price relief to get those plays in. Norwich is above average in the EPL, with 3.1 expected goals across two matches at home. Their on-target shot volume is 9.5 per match, which is not promising, but Watford is above average with 4.25 shots on target allowed. Watford is in a prime position to expose the Norwich defense, so Norwich will need volume to secure any form of points.

Teemu Pukki has led the hosts in overall scoring across the past few years and handles penalties. He has gotten off to a slow start, with 1.43 shots per match. His average across his past two seasons is 3.05 per match, with an on-target accuracy clip of 40%. His salary is below $6,000, which offers 2x value with goal upside. His lack of floor makes him a GPP play, but the salary still allows for stacks in cash on a smaller slate.

Milot Rashica handles the indirect shares for Norwich and comes in lower than Pukki. He is the preferred option for cash when price and the floor are considered. Rashica averaged over 2.4 shots per match across the previous two seasons and 2.9 scoring chances created. His floor is built on 6.78 crosses per match.

Raheem Sterling (DraftKings: $7,600, FanDuel: $18)

Jack Grealish (DraftKings: $8,800, FanDuel: $20)

Manchester City plays hosts to Southampton. Southampton has allowed 3.9 expected goals on the road. This number trends along with their 1.67 per match allowed a season ago, which is third worst in the EPL. Manchester City has several options, which is where things get tricky.

Raheem Sterling did not play in their mid-week Champions League match, so he should get the nod here. He ranked second in the club a season ago in overall goals and is third with 4.44 shots per 90-minute run. His form is excellent, including the Europa run. Sterling can distribute as well, with 3.89 scoring chances created on the score sheet. The price is one of the lowest for the heavy favorite side, making his expected ownership climb for all format stacking purposes. He lacks a floor should the hosts be stunned, but the matchup and club’s barrage of scoring suggests this will not be the case.

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Jack Grealish fits nicely with his new club. He builds a floor off scoring chances created (6.05 per match) and crossing volume (2.89 per match). The set-piece shares are still a question, as Ilkay Gundogan continues to handle them. Grealish has the open-play volume of 2.89 crosses, and all his metrics should see a significant uptick with possession dominance against the sit-back approach Southampton takes.

Gundogan is very much in play should Kevin De Bruyne rest the match. His price is below $8,000, and his floor is built off seven crosses per match. De Bruyne’s presence will hurt the floor. Gundogan does push up more with De Bruyne and contributes on scoring chances. He averages 2.75 shots per match, and should Riyad Mahrez join De Bruyne on the bench, the PK sets belong to Gundogan.

Ashley Westwood (DraftKings: $6,100, FanDuel: $13)

The lost man for Burnley seems to be Ashley Westwood. The open-play crossing and drawn fouls from Dwight McNeil garner ownership. Chris Wood is a forward option with salary relief, and a price under $7,000 for scoring upside. Westwood provides the floor option with indirect shares. He averages five crosses per match along with 2.33 scoring chances created. Wood and McNeil are the GPP pieces for a leverage GPP stack, but Westwood is a plug-in for any format as a one-off. He also does well on the defense, with two won tackles/interceptions per match, which should see a slight bump when Arsenal attacks.

Burnley has had Arsenal’s number for a few consecutive matches, all low scoring. This is not the ideal spot to go goal hunting. Arsenal does offer a discount for set-piece man Nicolas Pepe and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. They are favorites on a short slate, so the ownership they garner makes the spend up on Liverpool and Manchester City better.

Other Options: James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings $6,500, FanDuel $16), Conor Gallagher (DraftKings $6,800, FanDuel $18), Sadio Mane (DraftKings $10,000, FanDuel $21), Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $10,800, FanDuel $23), Emmanuel Dennis (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $17), Ismaila Sarr (DraftKings $7,900, FanDuel $18)


Danny Rose (DraftKings: $3,700, FanDuel: $11)

Danny Rose was impressive in his Watford debut. This is a small sample size considering his limited career action runs dating back to the Tottenham timeframe. The importance is his matchup and price. Norwich does not play defense, and the attacking options for Watford are above. Rose can play both sides of the field with open-play crosses, won tackles and interceptions. His push up the wing can draw fouls. His salary for fitting in plenty of stars, including Trent Alexander-Arnold and Joao Cancelo, if running three defenders, which are popular cash options week in and week out.

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Other Options: Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $15), Joao Cancelo (DraftKings $5,500, FanDuel $13), Kieran Tierney (DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $12)


Ederson (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel: $13)

Alisson (DraftKings: $5,800, FanDuel: $12)

Nick Pope (DraftKings: $4,200, FanDuel: $8)

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media! Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Stokastic EPL DFS home page.

Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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