Welcome to our EPL DFS coverage for Jan. 4. Here you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate from projection to pricing to popularity across soccer DFS.
EPL Odds Report
Southampton (+450) vs. Liverpool (-189), O/U 3.5
EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Jan. 4
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
EPL DFS Picks: Captain
Danny Ings (DraftKings $11,400 FanDuel $13)
Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $16,200 FanDuel $16)
This EPL Showdown features Southampton welcoming Liverpool. Southampton sports the fifth-best home defense in the EPL. The issue with them is their home offense, which ranks fourth worst in the EPL. This is a favorable matchup against Liverpool’s below-average road defense, though Liverpool’s road offense ranks fourth best in the EPL.
Danny Ings is a goal-or-bust option, and the home underdog tag is a big reason for the price. I like him as a GPP play for leverage. He is averaging 2.83 shots/assisted shots per game. Ings contributes on 36% of his club’s overall scoring and was a top-three goal scorer a season ago. The interior defense of Liverpool has been weakened further with the injury to Joel Matip, and if Southampton is to break through, they need contributions from Ings.
Mohamed Salah is a pay-up-to-be-contrarian option given his asking price. He can build a floor through volume shooting, and he takes penalties. Salah averages 5.2 shots/assisted shots per game and contributes on 43% of his club’s overall scoring. This is also the highest-scoring club in the EPL, and Salah is always a brace threat.
Andrew Robertson (DraftKings $12,300 FanDuel $9)
Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $12,000 FanDuel $10)
On FanDuel you cannot Captain a defender. Both Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold are the defender plays by a long shot. On DraftKings they allow for salary relief to pay up in the Flex. Robertson has probably the higher floor, with nine crosses and 2.25 shots/assisted shots per game.
Alexander-Arnold averages 6.78 crosses and three shots/assisted shots per game. The key difference is Alexander-Arnold has the higher ceiling; with double the shot attempts, he is looking to score more than assist. Robertson is the safer cash Captain, while Alexander-Arnold is the better GPP option. Alexander-Arnold could come in as the highest GPP Captain given the salary relief to fit in the Sadio Mane or Salah in the Flex.
Other Options: James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings $13,800, FanDuel $14), Sadio Mane (DraftKings $14,700, FanDuel $15)
EPL DFS Picks: Flex
Che Adams (DraftKings $7,400 FanDuel $12)
Roberto Firmino (DraftKings $8,600 FanDuel $12)
Che Adams and Roberto Firmino are the odd men out. Adams is a solid GPP Flex with output on different fronts. He averages 2.93 shots/assisted shots per game with 1.66 drawn fouls. Adams contributes on 32% of Southampton’s overall scoring and is easy to fit in a Liverpool-favored stack with a scoring threat on the comeback.
Firmino has the upside to score, with 3.18 shots/assisted shots per game. Even at a reduced asking price, he still needs to get on the scoresheet. He is a cheap exposure to a Liverpool stack or a more balanced stack with James Ward-Prowse and Ings.
Jan Bednarek (DraftKings $3,600 FanDuel $8)
Jan Bednarek is a pure punt option who can be used to fit the 5-1 Liverpool onslaught stack. He should see a heavy dose of clear opportunities on FanDuel for those MME that fade Robertson or Alexander-Arnold. On DraftKings the punt option ownership will flow to Nathaniel Phillips or Fabinho, which makes me willing to take a chance on Bednarek and his defensive volume increase.
Other Options: Jordan Henderson (DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $8), Theo Walcott (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $11).
Related EPL Content
- VIDEO: The EPL DFS Strategy Show with Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker and Jovanni Vidal
- EPL Soccer Projections for DraftKings
- EPL Soccer Projections for FanDuel
Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo EPL home page. Just click HERE.