The EPL main slate featured four matches on DraftKings. Arsenal is an away favorite while West Ham United takes the juice at home against Nottingham Forest. The Arsenal match against Leicester City is the only one with an expected goal total over 2.5 and floor plays should take priority over goal hunters on this slate. Let’s take a look at the EPL DFS picks and find where it makes sense to spend up.
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EPL DFS Picks & Predictions Today
Forwards/Midfield
James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings: $8,300)
Jack Harrison (DraftKings: $7,100)
We have a pair of regulars atop the Stokastic EPL projections. James Ward-Prowse sits as the top value play at 2.09 on DraftKings with an EPL DFS projection of 17.36. Ward-Prowse handles all sets for Southampton and builds his floor on 7.35 crosses and 3.48 scoring chances created. He can add value in the midfield with 3.05 won tackles and interceptions. Ward-Prowse carries as much upside as any of the Saints with 1.70 shots per match and an accurate strike rate on direct set shares. He is a core play and a one-off in any format makes the most sense.
Paul Onuachu, a leverage piece in GPPs for a Saints goal outside the captain, comes cheap. His first taste of action with the club was nothing to write home about, but he is a heralded finisher around the net as proven in his time with Genk.
Leeds United have allowed the fourth most home goals in the EPL, and they rank sixth-worst in expected goals allowed at 1.50 per match. Southampton haven’t been much better on the road, with the fifth most goals allowed and a below-average 1.41 expected goals allowed. The attacking pieces for Leeds United are the set man Jack Harrison with a floor of 6.67 crosses per match and a team-high 4.06 scoring chances created per match. Alongside for GPP stacking pieces is Crysencio Summerville and the man up front who averages over three attempts per match in Patrick Bamford.Â
Alex Iwobi (DraftKings: $6,500)
Martin Odegaard (DraftKings: $7,700)
Everton have the home-field advantage for their matchup against Aston Villa. The team looks up to the task with an improved defense. The core play of the group is Alex Iwobi. Once again he benefits from the absence of Anthony Gordon and Demarai Gray. Iwobi splits sets with Dwight McNeil, but the discount on Iwobi makes him the better play.
Everton cannot score and will be satisfied with a low-scoring win. Iwobi has contributed on 43% of their overall scoring via assists. His 2.42 won tackles and interceptions along with 2.54 scoring chances created adds to his floor alongside his set shares. McNeil has the edge in crossing volume and scoring chances created. Pairing the two together is a solid option for GPP stacks, and one extra member to consider is Amadou Onana. His role in the midfield has increased but his price has not caught up. He sits with 4.01 won tackles and interceptions, which leads the Everton side, and 2.02 drawn fouls per match. His 1.26 shots per match lead both McNeil and Iwobi.
Aston Villa have the talent to find the back of the net. The attacking options include Ollie Watkins, who could find lower ownership with an above $8,000 asking price. Emiliano Buendia comes in at a discounted salary but offers little floor. John McGinn handles the indirect set shares. McGinn has a knack for fouling at an above rate and the arguments could see the Scottish international find himself a yellow card showing.
Arsenal will be a popular play, as they have shown strong recent form and are the largest favorite on the slate. Bukayo Saka needs little introduction and is a core play for set shares and the open play shot volume and drawn foul rate. Martin Odegaard is the oft-overlooked man. The captain of Arsenal looks to keep his troops in the race for the EPL title. Arsenal will have plenty of goals to go around. Odegaard contributes on 29.16% of those goals, which trails only Saka. He leads the club with 5.22 scoring chances created, and his 2.61 shots per match trails only Saka.
Other Options: Eddie Nketiah (DraftKings: $8,200);Â James Maddison (DraftKings: $8,800); Jarrod Bowen (DraftKings: $9,000), Danny Ings (DraftKings: $6,300)
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Defender
Vladimir Coufal (DraftKings: $5,100)
West Ham United must turn their disappointing season around. The pieces responsible for their success have returned slowly from injury, with the exception of Aaron Creswell. The wingback on the other side of the pitch, Vladimir Coufal, has done his part. He sports 2.22 scoring chances created — not a significant mark, but given the lack of goal production for the Hammers, a good enough one.
Coufal sees 3.99 won tackles and interceptions per match and 5.23 crosses per match, which leads every member of the team outside the injured Creswell. The matchup calls for a mix of defensive and open-play deliveries, which means he’ll produce regardless of whether West Ham find scoring boots — making him a sharp EPL DFS pick.
Other Options: Emerson Emerson (DraftKings: $4,700); James Tarkowski (DraftKings: $3,600)
Goalkeeper
Jordan Pickford (DraftKings: $4,900)
Keylor Navas (DraftKings: $4,000)
