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The Corner Kick: EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel | Aston Villa Stack? 12/26

Jovanni Vidal

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Jovanni Vidal breaks down English Premier League soccer odds and strategy, and gives his top EPL DFS Picks for DraftKings + FanDuel lineups.

Welcome to our EPL DFS coverage for Dec. 26, I hope you had very Happy Holidays and came back ready for some great soccer action. Here you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate from projection to pricing to popularity across soccer DFS.

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EPL Odds Report

Aston Villa (-111) vs. Crystal Palace (+280), O/U 2.5

Fulham (+220) vs. Southampton (+130), O/U 2.5

Arsenal (+300) vs. Chelsea (-111), O/U 3.5

EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Dec. 26

These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.

Note: the DraftKings main slate is three games, while FanDuel has a five game main slate. Picks in the Other Options section are the preferred options for DraftKings two game late slate.

EPL DFS Picks: Forward/Midfield

Olivier Giroud (DraftKings $7,900 FanDuel $18)

Mason Mount (DraftKings $7,700 FanDuel $16)

Chelsea has a plus match up against an Arsenal side that seems to be in freefall mode. Arsenal has a mid-tier home defense in the EPL, allowing an expected goals of 8.5. Chelsea has the third ranked overall offense in the EPL, with an expected goals for of 23.9. While their road offense is not as impressive, the Chelsea attack is coming into this matchup too cheap. I would add Timo Werner and Christian Pulisic from Chelsea to the GPP attackers as well.

Olivier Giroud has been a finisher for Chelsea. With 3.66 shots per full game run, I like him to find the back of the net at low ownership considering his goal dependency. Tammy Abraham may get the nod in front of Giroud. If this is the case, I would swap to Abraham. Both players hold low floors and have the same scoring upside.

Mason Mount is handling set pieces for Chelsea, which gives him a safe floor. His upside comes into play if his teammates connect on those crosses. His floor is the highest among the Chelsea midfielders and attackers. He averages 3.92 crosses, 2.3 won tackles and interceptions and 4 shots and assisted shots per game.

Anwar El Ghazi (DraftKings $8,700 FanDuel $15)

Ollie Watkins (DraftKings $7,200 FanDuel $17)

Aston Villa’s offense ranks seventh overall in the EPL, and fifth at home with an expected goals for of 11.4. The chances to score have increased since Anwar El Ghazi and Bertrand Traore have seen the starting rotation. They welcome a mid-tier ranked Crystal Palace defense, with an expected goals allowed of 8.8.

El Ghazi looks to have assumed the PK role for Villa. His floor is built off of volume shots which sit at 8 per start and crossing volume of 7 per start. His price seems high, but if you consider the caliber defense he is facing, his volume should persist. Given the spread ability to contribute for Villa, you can make a case for Jack Grealish and Traore or Watkins to get different.

Ollie Watkins still posses the shot volume and close range attack that can get him on the score sheet. He needs goals and, given the added offense around him, he is a GPP play. His scoring drought of late will keep his ownership low, so you will not need much to get leverage on the soccer DFS field. He is averaging 3.58 shots and assisted shots.

Nicolas Pepe (DraftKings $5,600 FanDuel $14)

Andros Townsend (DraftKings $7,600 FanDuel $12)

We are getting a pretty big discount on Nicolas Pepe. He has a tough matchup, but can be a leverage play with offensive involvement in volume. He is averaging high volume shooting and crosses, with limited minutes. If Willian sits out, Pepe gets a huge bump in volume with set pieces. With Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to return, Pepe could slip past the Chelsea defense unnoticed. If Aubameyang sits unexpectedly, which has happened already, Pepe will command the PK duties.

Andros Townsend brings a high floor, with 5.91 crosses, 2.33 shots and assisted shots per game and 2.41 won tackles and interceptions per game. Like with the Arsenal attack, the match up is not favorable. In GPPs Townsend, along with Wilfried Zaha and Eberechi Eze, has sneaky upside and a little exposure can get you over the field.

Other Options: Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings $11,100, FanDuel $23), Raheem Sterling (DraftKings $9,400, FanDuel $22), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (DraftKings $8,000, FanDuel $19), Richarlison (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $18), Gylfi Sigurdsson (DraftKings $8,100, FanDuel $14).

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EPL DFS Picks: Defender

Antonee Robinson (DraftKings $4,200 FanDuel $12)

Reece James (DraftKings $5,700 FanDuel $8)

I think you can pay down at defense on this soccer DFS slate. Antonee Robinson comes in too cheap for his involvement. He averages 4 crosses per game and 2.63 won tackles and interceptions. Southampton is a below mid tier road defense, with an expected goals against of 9.7. Robinson should have opportunity to push up the wing and deliver, building value through assisted shots as well.

The Chelsea defense is up in the air. Ben Chilwell and Reece James are questionable with injuries. James is preferred if starting especially with no Chilwell. If both are out, I would bump Emerson up, as he should play a similar role. Chelsea relies heavily on their wing back contributions, so the volume deliveries will be there for the two that start. With talent up front, any of the wing backs will have upside in goal contribution. If Emerson is in, his price is not reflecting the upside and is a great value play.

Other Options: Kurt Zouma (DraftKings $3,900, FanDuel $15), Tyrone Mings (DraftKings $3,800, FanDuel $14), Jannik Vestergaard (DraftKings $3,100, FanDuel $14), Yerry Mina (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $12), Benjamin Mendy (DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $10).

Goalkeepers

Alphonse Areola (DraftKings $4,600 FanDuel $9)

Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings $5,300 FanDuel $11)


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Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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