The five-game EPL DFS slate has one clear-cut favorite in the home side of Arsenal. Fulham and Brighton are coming in with coin-flip odds, and those are the sides that are undervalued in this one. Arsenal and Tottenham have big names that cannot be ignored. The pivot plays will come from Fulham at home and Brighton on the road. Let’s take a look at the EPL DFS picks and find where it makes sense to spend up.
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EPL DFS Predictions & Picks
Forwards/Midfield
Aleksandar Mitrovic (DraftKings: $8,000; FanDuel: $22)
Andreas Pereira (DraftKings: $7,300; FanDuel: $15)
Fulham has the home-side advantage as they take on a Nottingham Forest squad that won’t go down without a fight. The previous encounter between the two sides saw a goal fest with Fulham edging out the win 3-2 on the road. Fulham has allowed the second-most goals in the EPL this season at home and the most expected goals against per game (1.56). Nottingham Forest has scored the fewest goals on the road this season and averages only 0.91 expected goals per match. Something has to give in this one and the offense of Fulham will look for a few goals to ensure all three points in this one.
The set-piece man is Andreas Pereira with a floor built on 6.93 crosses per match and a team-high 3.77 scoring chances created. His upside comes in the form of a 24% goal contribution rate, which is skewed to the assists side and ranks second on the team behind only Aleksandar Mitrovic. Mitrovic dominates the shot volume at over four per match. He owns eleven goals on the year.
Mitrovic is the goal-hunting option and makes for a discounted pivot off one of the slate’s more popular options like Harry Kane or Bukayo Saka. Mitrovic is the top value forward on DraftKings, according to the Stokastic’s EPL projections, with a value of 1.94 and an EPL DFS projection of 15.65. On FanDuel he sits in a virtual tie with Kane for the top projected scorer at around 24. The affordable salaries of Fulham’s attackers make it easy to pair them with pieces from Tottenham or Arsenal.
The Nottingham Forest side has had all sorts of trouble on the road as mentioned above. The consistent player on the pitch for them is Morgan Gibbs-White. He has a floor with set shares and an attacking mindset to the tune of 2.09 shots per match and 4.64 scoring chances created. His floor makes for a solid cash option given the asking price of $6,800, which draws a value of 1.84, per Stokastic’s EPL projections.
Solly March (DraftKings: $7,500; FanDuel: $17)
Michael Olise (DraftKings: $7,700; FanDuel: $12)
Life won’t get easier for Crystal Palace as they continue to battle without Wilfried Zaha. The lack of help from their supporting cast is making their offense hard to back. At home, they are tied with Fulham in goals allowed. The expected goals allowed mark ranks below mid-tier at 1.33 per match. Brighton does not always come away with big score lines but the effort is there and the attempts are sure to break through the Palace back line.
The spread scoring of Brighton and split sets make it hard to pay up for the ranks of Kaoru Mitoma and Pascal Gross. The matchup calls for exposure to the road team, and Solly March provides a great floor regardless of whether he can contribute to a goal or not. His numbers sit at 4.55 crosses per match and 2.25 shots with 3.67 scoring chances created. Gross edges March out in both crossing volume and scoring chances created, but with Alexis Mac Allister back and handling PK sets, the upside for Gross does not warrant the price.
The home side of Crystal Palace will rely on the open play volume and accurate set deliveries of Michael Olise. Olise sees a floor on 7.29 crosses per match along with 2.5 won tackles and interceptions and 1.88 drawn fouls. Olise is especially hard to ignore on FanDuel. The on-target rate hasn’t been there, but the direct set strikes are. His relatively affordable price frees a lot of salary for big-name goal hunters as well. In cash games, Olise edges out March despite Brighton’s likely significant time of possession. Olise’s set monopoly offers a higher floor than the splits and open play March must navigate.
Eberechi Eze is still a consideration for GPPs with north of two shots per match and drawn fouls. His price should really be south of $6,800 without set shares and would be the top play for any format should Olise not see the starting eleven.
Other Options: Eddie Nketiah (DraftKings: $7,700; FanDuel: $18);Â Ivan Perisic (DraftKings: $5,700; FanDuel: $10); Bukayo Saka (DraftKings: $8,800; FanDuel: $20), Harry Kane (DraftKings: $9,200; FanDuel: $23)
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Defender
Kenny Tete (DraftKings: $6,000; FanDuel: $13)
James Bree (DraftKings: $5,100; FanDuel: $11)
Fulham remains a focal point of the stacking options, and Kenny Tete does it all on offense and defense. He averages 3.44 crosses per match and 1.84 scoring chances created, which should tick up significantly against Nottingham Forest. On defense, he averages 4.9 won tackles and interceptions and can rack up EPL DFS points regardless of possession swings during a match. The asking price should keep his ownership lower than the matchup calls for, but he is in play for all formats.
The Southampton-Wolverhampton matchup should draw little interest. This could be a sneaky good DFS matchup with more goals than the odds suggest. Midfielder James Ward-Prowse should draw plenty of ownership but James Bree is cutting into the crossing volume. However, Bree has a small sample size, and the price elevation might be an overreaction. He averages north of five crosses per match, and defensively, his floor is set with three won tackles and interceptions. That number could tick up against the speed of Wolverhampton on the wings with Adama Traore and Rayan Alt Nouri.Â
There is nothing wrong with punting on a few center backs on a slate where you can stack Kane, Mitrovic and Saka. The center backs that attack often on the corner sets and have great accuracy on their connections include Ben Mee, Craig Dawson and Eric Dier. Should Brighton return Adam Webster to the starting eleven, he could be worth a punt for EPL DFS players as well.
Other Options: Timothy Castagne (DraftKings: $3,900; FanDuel: $11); Ben White (DraftKings: $3,300; FanDuel: $10)
Goalkeeper
Bernd Leno (DraftKings: $5,500; FanDuel: $12)
Aaron Ramsdale (DraftKings: $5,800; FanDuel: $13)
