The EPL slate for Saturday is the last go around before the World Cup break. Despite players packing to leave they should still be involved as these matches hold significant weight for the clubs with crucial points on the line. Liverpool come in as the heavy favorites at -400 on the money line against Southampton. The other matches on the DraftKings main slate are even according to the odds and Tottenham sit as -154 favorites against a Leeds side struggling to keep the ball out of their own net. There is value from the Spurs home fixture to be had and Newcastle are not looking as appealing as the previous weeks welcoming Chelsea on the FanDuel six-game main slate. Liverpool is the focal point with Tottenham and Crystal Palace rounding out the roster spots. Let’s dive into the EPL DFS picks for Saturday.
DraftKings & FanDuel EPL DFS Picks November, 12
Darwin Nunez (DraftKings: $8,800, FanDuel: $19)
Liverpool cannot be ignored as they welcome Southampton to Anfield. The previous three matches between the two sides saw Liverpool post two-plus goals in each with the lone home event seeing four goals. They stand fourth overall in the EPL at home offensively with an expected goals of 1.95 per match. Southampton on the road rank fourth best with an expected goals allowed of 1.12 per match. If the defense bolds well then why attack it? The answer is the time of possession and volume for DFS. Southampton allows a mid-tier 12.9 shots per match and the seventh worst created chance rate in the EPL at 22.68 per match. Liverpool has the most shots on target per match at 6.15. The direct approach opens the upside for Mohamed Salah, Darwin Nunez, and Roberto Firmino. The three flood the top of the projections on FanDuel sitting top to third and on DraftKings with a player mentioned below sneaking in between. Salah stands first overall according to the Stokastic EPL projections with 20.21 DraftKings points and 31.91 FanDuel points.
Salah is the leading goal contributor on the club with 39% of the overall scoring. Firmino ties this mark and has done it in a shorter run time. The shot volume between the two mirror each other at a range of 3.12 to 3.56 per match with Firmino holding a lead on the on-target rate at 60%. Nunez is a massive target at the center of the net and the shot volume has consistently been massive to the tune of 6.21 shots per match with 36.1% on target accuracy which trails Salah’s 39% rate. With Liverpool the wing backs cannot be ignored, and they will be involved in the crossing and create chance volume. The asking prices on the three attackers and wingbacks are impossible to fit in an onslaught. The leverage play is to fade Salah in GPP because Firmino has shown upside and Nunez has the volume and discount off the Egyptian international. The popular route is always playing Salah with the paired wingbacks in Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson.
When choosing between Firmino and Nunez the price matters because both are heavily dependent on finding the back of the net. Firmino offers a discount on DraftKings, and his contribution rate would suggest him to score or be the helper to Nunez should he find the back of the net. On FanDuel the salary is flipped to where a $1 discount on Nunez with volume despite a lower on target rate makes him the goal hunter of choice. In the midfield the GPP filler for a Liverpool stack option resides with Harvey Elliot. On the counter side of the pitch Che Adams is a sneaky option at the forward spot with speed and the advantage against a Liverpool side that has conceded to Southampton in the past and has kept just three clean sheets in the EPL this season.
James Maddison (DraftKings: $9,000, FanDuel $20)
Harvey Barnes (DraftKings: $7,300, FanDuel $14)
Leicester City have a tough task ahead of them on the road against West Ham United. The interesting stat is that West Ham are stronger defensively on the road than at home with a split of 0.91 expected goals on the road, good for third best in the EPL, vs 1.05 at home, sitting mid-tier in the EPL. It is already known that Leicester City cannot play defense. Their road offense is the best in the EPL with an expected goals of 1.48 per match. This is a GPP play to sneak in two Foxes in a lineup. For cash games James Maddison is the man with created chances and set shares. Not to mention his fifteen goal contributions in his last sixteen matches. The shot volume stands at 3.19 and he leads his club in scoring.
The piece added for differential in GPP is Harvey Barnes. Barnes won’t come cheap but cheaper than Firmino and Nunez. There is a lot of savings to switch one of them in a Liverpool stack to Barnes who is second on his club sheet in scoring while attempting north of three shots per match and hitting target a team high 50%. Barnes can disappear fast without a goal and the salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings will not destroy your lineups to the degree Nunez and Firmino will without scoring.
Ivan Perisic (DraftKings: $7,000, FanDuel $11)
Brenden Aaronson (DraftKings: $5,200, FanDuel $14)
The matchup between Tottenham and Leeds United will offer plenty of goals. Leeds is resilient on the offensive end but at the cost of the defense. The home side offers targets up top like Harry Kane. He leads the club in goals and shot volume. His popularity is warranted given the match up odds and leverage over the three Liverpool attackers. Ivan Perisic has sloted into the set piece role with the absence of Hueng-Min Son. Hsi price has elevated and yet he still offers a floor with the volume in set and open play. The added crossing volume has Perisic sitting at an average over ten per match. The shot volume is not there and the goals filter mainly through Kane.
The Leeds side have matched goals with the best of them this season and Jack Harrison is expected to miss the outing against Tottenham. Brenden Aaronson will take command of the set shares and add to his already present high-volume crossing and created chance marks. He is the top value play on DraftKings at 2.43 with 12.64 points according to the Stokastic EPL projections. The attackers around offer consistent scoring from Rodrigo and a surprise life line for the club in Crysencio Summerville. There is no need or reason to fully attack the Tottenham defense as it is hard to penetrate. A one off of Aaronson for a floor and salary relief in cash games if fine. In GPP one off of either of the three offers upside for the form Summerville and Rodrigo have shown in recent outings.
Other Options: Eberechi Eze (DraftKings: $7,900, FanDuel $16), Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings: $9,200, FanDuel $19).
Serge Aurier (DraftKings: $4,400, FanDuel $10)
There was a time when Serge Aurier was a must play at the wing back spot. He is no longer in Tottenham and not the offensive presence of old. His defense has stayed intact and the match up calls for increased opportunity at those defensive metrics. Aurier averages 5.31 won tackles and interceptions per match which trails only teammate Neco Williams at 5.91 per match. Crystal Palace can press the issue and he will be tasked with taking on Wilfried Zaha who has a knack for drawing fouls. Zaha’s aggression can also work against him and offer conceded fouls to Aurier who stands his ground well and can deposes the best of them.
Other Options: Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings: $6.700, FanDuel $13), Andrew Robertson (DraftKings: $6,300, FanDuel $11), Timothy Castagne (DraftKings: $5,300, FanDuel $11)
Illan Meslier (DraftKings: $3,900, FanDuel $9)
Vicente Guaita (DraftKings: $4,900, FanDuel $11)
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