After taking the weekend matches off, we are back with a 15-match slate on FanDuel and a 14-match on DraftKings. The Miami Open is now into the third round on the men’s side and the Round of 16 on the women’s side, so it’s winding down. Not surprisingly, there have been a lot of close matches and tight finishes in GPP’s, so hitting the ceiling plays is going to be a necessity. This has been a nice run of late, so let’s keep it going with picks for Monday’s March 29 tennis DFS slate.
FanDuel & DraftKings Tennis DFS Picks | March 29
Aslan Karatsev ($22 FanDuel/$9,900 DraftKings)
Opponent: Sebastian Korda
Odds: -313
There has not been a bigger surprise on tour than Aslan Karatsev in 2021 season, as he has looked all of his 27th rank. He has gone 16-2 on the year (all on hardcourts), with his two losses coming against Dominic Thiem and Novak Djokovic in the semis at the Australian Open. On top of that, he comes into Miami with a title win in Dubai that saw him beat four top-50 players and no one outside the top 100. The key to his success, and the key to this match, will be his ability to win first serves, as he’s done all year at a 76% rate. Sebastian Korda has built much of his game around forcing mistakes and capitalizing on break points since his game doesn’t contain a ton of power yet.
Karatsev should have no problem beating Korda at his own game, as he’s done all year to his opponents. With FanDuel’s scoring system being highly predicated on winning the match and providing more ceiling with sweeps, it all works in Karatsev’s favor.
Adrian Mannarino ($10 FanDuel/$5,500 DraftKings)
Opponent: Diego Schwartzman
Odds: +242
As odd as it may sound, the most important stat in this match may be Diego Schwartzman‘s height (5-foot-7). Hardcourt tennis is built for taller players with service games, to put it most simply. Now, Adrian Mannarino does not wow anyone with his service game on any surface, but he has a five-inch height advantage and more success on this surface over the course of either player’s career. Schwartzman has much preferred the red dirt, going just 84-79 on hardcourt, while Mannarino has 243 career wins on hard surfaces.
This should be a good match, but Schwartzman’s lack of success on hardcourts isn’t by chance. In two career head-to-head matches, both on clay, Mannarino was able to take the last. Coming near the very bottom of the pricing grid, even an ugly win would be perfectly acceptable.
Ashleigh Barty ($19 FanDuel/$8,200 DraftKings)
Opponent: Viktoria Azarenka
Odds: -145
Seeing the No. 1 player in the world priced this low in tennis DFS is a bit odd, but even with a tough matchup, Ashleigh Barty is a great play at this price. After taking most of 2020 off, Barty has hardly missed a step, going 11-3 with a title in her home country and a quarterfinals appearance in the Australian Open. There are few to no women on the tour who hold serve like Barty does, at 77% for this year. She has also picked up the aces in comparison to her career numbers, with a 10.9% rate. That bodes well for her floor and upside on DraftKings especially.
Viktoria Azarenka is a warrior, but she has had an off year with injuries and some bad losses that that are atypical compared to last year’s triumphs. If Barty can keep the mistakes on her service game under control, she should handle Azarenka easily enough, with some big upside to boot.
Others: Aryna Sabalenka, Maria Sakkari, Anastasija Sevastova, Daniel Elahi Galan
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