This is a great pitching slate from both a talent and pricing standpoint, with multiple options at various tiers. Below are three pitchers that we’re spotlighting for this Sunday MLB slate, with Awesemo weighing in first, and then some additional analysis from myself (Tommienation1).
Charlie Morton ($11,500 DK/$9,100 FD)
“The Padres’ team total is near 3 this afternoon and Morton, while the highest-priced pitcher on DraftKings, is worth it as a -270 favorite.”
It couldn’t be a much better spot for Morton as there are a bunch of potential strikeouts in the Padres’ lineup. He’s struck out lefties at an over 32% rate since the start of 2017, and started off 2018 with a bang, posting a Swinging-Strike rate of 18.7% and Whiff/Swing rate over 41% against the Orioles. Morton is a guy that is great at limiting hard-contact (one of the stats I weight heavily), so this Padres lineup that Morton can dominate with both strikeouts and creating soft-contact.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,100 DK/$7,000 FD)
“Looking at the Vegas implied totals and strikeout numbers for the Rays’ batters, Rodriguez has some of the highest upside on the slate.”
Making his first start of the season, Rodriguez is one of the top options this Sunday afternoon as he’ll get a free-swinging Rays team that is 12th in Swinging-Strike rate so far this season. When you look at the individual strikeout numbers for the Rays hitter in this matchup, the spot looks even sweeter for Rodriguez as Robertson, Cron, Miller, Gomez, and Kiermaier all strikeout over 25% against lefties since the start of last year. He may not be fully stretched out making his first start, but if his command is solid, this is a spot where he can rack up strikeouts efficiently.
Jordan Montgomery ($7,000 DK/$7,400 FD)
“The Orioles’ team total is under 4 today and Montgomery will get the benefit of some good pitching weather at home as a -185 favorite.”
Montgomery had a shaky first start, but he’s going up against the Orioles who, as a team, have the highest Swinging-Strike rate over the first 10 days of the season by a wide margin. There is a lot of power in the O’s lineup specifically from the right side, but Montgomery has been solid at limiting hard contact to righties since last year (27.6%) and strikes them out at a 23% rate. He’s a great value on both sites and one that is going to be a tough fade for me even on a slate with a lot of solid pitching options.