Week 14 Thursday Night Football features the New England Patriots taking on the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are favored by 4.5 points, and the game has a 44.5-point total. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy football picks, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All daily fantasy football picks and showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
[CARUSO]
Daily Fantasy Football: Week 14 Thursday Night Football
Daily Fantasy Football Showdown Captain
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods
Woods and Kupp are arguably the highest-ceiling players on this slate, but our ownership projections have them as the third- and fourth-highest-owned players. On the season, Kupp has slightly more targets and air yards. In recent weeks, Woods has separated himself as the No. 1 receiver, though. Weeks 10-13:
- Woods – 27% target share, 23% air yards share
- Kupp – 22% target share, 22% air yards share
Woods is $600 cheaper than Kupp, is seeing more volume recently and is projected to be similar in popularity at Captain.
Cam Akers
Akers has quietly emerged as the clear lead back in Los Angeles over the past two weeks. He has seen 62% of the team’s running back carries, and the Rams are still favored by 4.5 points at home. Running backs make up 34.5% of the Captains in winning lineups over the past two years. Akers is also unlikely to share points with a quarterback or receiver because he has a grand total of one target over the past two weeks.
Jakobi Meyers
The Patriots receiving room is a comical mess, but that should keep the ownership on all of them incredibly low for their upside. The Patriots have had their current receiving rotation since Week 10. Since then:
- Meyers – 24% target share, 29% air yards share, 106 routes
- Damiere Byrd – 18% target share, 36% air yards share, 100 routes
- N’Keal Harry – 14% target share, 14% air yards share, 77 routes
Meyers is running more routes and seeing more targets than the other New England receivers. Byrd is only $800 so he makes a solid salary-saver in a Flex spot on DraftKings and FanDuel but Meyers remains the top receiver for this team.
Never Miss An Active/Inactive Ever Again Don't get burned by a player being ruled out last minute, use our New NFL Depth Charts page to see starting lineups and inactive players for every team.Daily Fantasy Football Showdown Flex Considerations
Quarterbacks
The Top Showdown Plays tool has both quarterbacks as less likely to be the top-scoring player than their ownership would indicate. That’s also before adjusting for their slate-high salaries. Jared Goff is extremely sensitive to game script. When the Rams are winning, they pass at a 51% rate. Once that flips and they are losing, their pass rate jumps by 10%. Using Akers with Cam Newton instead of Goff is ideal leverage off the most popular play of the slate.
Newton is an expensive running back with some passing production. He has dipped below 100 passing yards in his two previous games and has five contests with fewer than 20 passing attempts. Newton has topped 250 yards three times. The average final total of those games has been 56.3 points. If this game hits the over by a considerable margin, Newton is likely to be in the optimal lineup and could even push for the Captain spot.
Damien Harris and Sony Michel
Harris logged 12 carries in the first half of Week 13 compared to Michel’s two carries. The only reason Michel saw double-digit carries is that the Patriots wrecked the Chargers. Harris remains the back to target between the tackles. He’s averaging 14 carries for 71.2 and .2 scores this year. Because he hasn’t caught multiple passes in a game is sole reliantly on touchdowns for a ceiling outcome, playing him without Newton seems optimal. He’s a much better FanDuel play than DraftKings.
James White
White has three games with over four receptions this year. All three were New England losses. Newton has only been active for two of those three games but he topped 20 points in both games. Newton and White may not correlate on an individual play level but the same types of games benefit both.
Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett
Higbee found the end zone last week but Everett saw one more target and played and both players ran the exact same amount of routes. Both Los Angeles tight ends should be projected for similar stat lines, but Everett is a better value because of his reduced price tag.
[NFL-Content-Links]
Defense and Kicker
The Rams defense is drawing considerable ownership at Captain but is likely to be best deployed in the Flex. Newton is throwing an interception on 3.3% of his attempts and taking a sack on 6.3% of his dropbacks. They have a positive differential of ownership top 2-6 probability in the Top Showdown Plays tool.
Matt Gay is the home-favored kicker but is priced below Nick Folk. Gay is the obvious choice at kicker and projects as a solid value.
Lower-Owned DFS Picks
Van Jefferson
Jefferson may have unseated Josh Reynolds as the No. 3 receiver for Los Angeles last week. He ran three more routes and quintupled Reynolds up in targets with five looks. He’s a second-round pick and is second on the Rams in aDOT, only behind Reynolds.
Malcolm Brown
Brown and Henderson have taken a backseat to Akers in recent weeks. Sean McVay has talked about using Brown as their third-down back, and he has six games with multiple receptions this year.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more Week 14 daily fantasy football picks content? We have loads of Week 10 DraftKings and FanDuel articles, data, cheat sheets for DraftKings and FanDuel, and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.
