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Let’s focus on three players — one pitcher, one infielder and one outfielder — to slot into your MLB DFS lineups for today’s Yahoo Cup and MLB Baller contests.
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MLB DFS Pitcher: Trevor Bauer — $49
To Coors, or not to Coors? That is the question on any slate the Rockies are at home, especially when they send out a below-average righty to face a lineup full of left-handed power bats. No one should allow themselves to be talked off the Dodgers against Anthony Senzatela, especially with the year-long points race aspect of the MLB Yahoo Cup where targeting the highest-projected run totals every round isn’t the worst strategy. But if you decide to full-stack the Dodgers, it will certainly limit the pitching options available to you.
And according to Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool, a premium offering created by the No. 1 daily fantasy player in the world Alex Baker, one of those pitchers to pay up for will also be donning Dodger blue today in Trevor Bauer. Awesemo projects Bauer to have a 49.6% chance of being one of the two optimal pitchers at the end of the day, by far the highest mark for any starter. Bauer is coming off his best (albeit abbreviated) season of his career, as he sported a ridiculous 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 12.33 Ks/9 in his 11 starts with the Reds in 2020. In terms of arm talent, it is him and Blake Snell at the top on this slate, then everyone else. Rostering both would be ideal tonight, as there should be enough value bats to make that strategy viable.
For those arguing against rostering a chalky pitcher in hitter-friendly Colorado, the concerns are valid. But let it be known that while Coors Field gave up the second-most runs in the majors last season, Great American Ballpark wasn’t far behind at fourth. Bauer successfully navigated those hitter-friendly confines with ease, and as he gathers more starts in Coors, expect him to do the same there. Buy into Bauer and lock him into MLB Yahoo Cup lineups tonight.
MLB DFS Infielder: Matt Olson — $15
The first non-Dodgers, non-Padres hitter in Alex Baker’s projections is Athletics first baseman Matt Olson. The potent A’s lineup is projected for 4.5 runs despite the cool night-hitting conditions at RingCentral Coliseum in Oakland, and lefty Olson is a big reason why. He is coming off an abysmal 2020 season, slashing for just .195/.310/.424 with 14 homers in a COVID-shortened, 60-game season.
But Olson still sported elite Statcast data in 2020, ranking in the 82nd percentile in hard-hit percentage, 84th percentile in barrel percentage and 91st percentile in exit velocity. He now gets to face a righty in Christian Javier who, despite a decent 2020 rookie campaign, surrendered a 1.82 HR/9 mark to opposing hitters, the second-highest mark on the slate. Olson’s $15 salary is a steep discount from other hitters with far less home run equity on this slate, so roll with Olson as a one-off first-base option for MLB DFS lineups tonight.
MLB DFS Outfielder: Adam Eaton — $10
It is hard to find many effective ways to get off the board on this slate, but rolling with a White Sox stack appears to be one of them. Using Awesemo’s Top Stacks tool, the White Sox stack has a 6.9% chance to end up optimal yet is garnering only a 4.4% roster share on Yahoo. Last year showed the upside this lineup has, and buying back in this season shouldn’t be too hard of a sell.
One major caveat to that theory going forward is the absence of Eloy Jimenez, who will be out for an extended amount of time after surgery on his torn pectoral muscle. And while inserting Eaton into an everyday role may seem like a drastic downgrade, it might not be the steep cliff many are making it out to be, even against a lefty like Adam Heaney. Throwing out 2020’s shortened season, where Eaton received few plate attempts against lefties anyway, Eaton hit for an identical .428 slugging percentage and .014 higher versus lefties than he did versus righties during 2019’s campaign. Assuming he hits second in the order again tonight, Eaton could make for a sneaky low-owned part of a contrarian White Sox stack.
