Wednesday, June 15, is the first of two getaway days this week, with split-slate action culminating in a nine-game featured slate that has a first pitch time of 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/15)
Top Stack: Toronto Blue Jays vs. LHP Bruce Zimmermann — 5.3 implied runs
The Blue Jays are rising to the top of the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool in their matchup with Bruce Zimmermann. This is far from shocking considering that the 27-year-old lefty has allowed multiple home runs in three of his last four and four of his last six games. The slim silver lining with Zimmermann is that he does limit walks, but, of course, the contact and power numbers obliterate that slight advantage.
Toronto will likely be running out a full lineup of right-handed hitters, which should result in multiple home runs and crooked numbers on the scoreboard. George Springer is one of the best in the game against southpaws, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is simply one of the best against anyone. Teoscar Hernandez and Bo Bichette are phenomenal when they have the platoon advantage, as is former Oakland third baseman Matt Chapman.
The options don’t stop there, with rookie phenom Gabriel Moreno coming off a three-hit game and available at a near-minimum salary across the DFS sites. Regular backstop Alejandro Kirk is an outstanding option if he is in the heart of the order, and even Lourdes Gurriel can be had at a discount if he manages to crack the lineup tonight.
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Late Slate: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Reid Detmers — 5.1 implied runs
Both Wrigley Field and Coors Field are shaping up to be launching pads tonight, so, of course, that quartet of teams should be targeted across all slates. The Battle for Los Angeles is also interesting, with the Dodgers hosting Reid Detmers and the crosstown Angels.
Since throwing a no-hitter one month ago — which is a testament to the defense, as Detmers had only two strikeouts — the young lefty has been marginal across four starts. In this stretch he has been rather lucky with hit sequencing, allowing just 8 of 24 baserunners to score, ceding four long balls and recording just a dozen whiffs.
The Dodgers profile well against Detmers, as their patience at the plate against southpaws limits their strikeouts and leads to walks, both things that are the Achilles heel for the 22-year-old left-hander. Mookie Betts (.224 ISO), Freddie Freeman (.202 ISO), Trea Turner (.254 ISO), Max Muncy (.240 ISO), Justin Turner (.201 ISO) and Chris Taylor (.248 ISO) all have elite power against lefties, with .200-plus ISOs since the beginning of last season.
The late slate has five of the six teams rolling with at least a 5.1 implied run total, and the Dodgers are the lowest of that quintet. It is not hard to visualize two or even three of the other offenses failing while the boys in blue notch half a dozen or more runs against Detmers.
Early Slate: Detroit Tigers vs. RHP Vince Velasquez — 4.6 implied runs
In a fun twist today, the Stokastic Top Batters Tool is actually showing some love to Detroit. The standard default this season has been to ride with the pitchers facing the Motor City Kitties, but Vince Velasquez seems to be the exception to that rule. The 30-year-old righty has always had strikeout upside, but he is not an efficient pitcher and tends to leave his fair share of mistakes hanging over the plate. This will be his first action in three weeks after suffering a groin injury, so he may only be on the mound for 60 to 70 pitches.
Over the last season and change, Velasquez has allowed a .208 ISO in 219 opposite-handed matchups, while right-handed batsmen have DESTROYED his offerings with a .288 ISO in 329 plate appearances. Austin Meadows, Javier Baez and even the venerable Miguel Cabrera stand out in this matchup today. If Eric Haase is in the lineup, he is a fine choice to fulfill the pesky catcher requirement, and at the bottom of the order he still provides synergy as part of a wraparound stack.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: RHP Spencer Strider at Washington Nationals — 4.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,700 | FanDuel $7,500
Wednesday brings plenty of good pitchers, though most are in tricky matchups. In turn, with so many sublimely positioned offenses, it may be worth looking to rookie Spencer Strider for salary relief. This is not going to be a unique strategy, but there are unlimited ways in which we can still differentiate our lineups.
In his last two starts, Strider has averaged 89.5 pitches across 9.2 innings. While that is not particularly efficient, considering he has 13 strikeouts in this timeframe (which also includes a game in Coors Field), he should receive the benefit of the doubt.
Juan Soto missed Tuesday’s game after knocking his knee on the dugout bench Monday. Even if he returns to action tonight, the Washington offense is still lackluster. While the top of the order has been frisky at times, it falls off rapidly with a revolving door of below-replacement-level hitters at the back end.
Secondary Target: RHP Corbin Burnes at New York Mets — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $10,900
Though he has not met the lofty expectations foisted on him by the DFS world, reigning National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes is posting similar numbers to last season. The Mets have been one of the offensive surprises this season, and they actually lead the league with a 126 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers. The hope is that Burnes will limit the power (sub-.090 ISO across his last 900 batters faced) while coaxing half a dozen strikeouts from the back of the New York batting order.
Additional Opportunities
Reid Detmers is a pitcher that we can pick on both in the DFS worlds and the MLB player props market. Currently, he has a 3.5 over/under on his strikeout prop and the Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 3.1, giving him a 64% probability of staying under that benchmark. While this will be a nip-and-tuck wager, the Dodgers have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league against southpaws and their offense could easily send Detmers to the showers early.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Zac Gallen vs. Cincinnati Reds (Early)
- RHP Jose Berrios vs. Baltimore Orioles (Main)
- LHP Tyler Anderson vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Brandon Belt vs. RHP Jon Heasley (Early)
- Matt Olson at RHP Erick Fedde (Main)
- Andrew McCutchen at LHP David Peterson (Main)
- Tyler O’Neill vs. RHP Roansy Contreras (Main)
- Manny Machado at RHP Caleb Kilian (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Aside from a potential short shower burst as a result of high humidity in the DC Metro Area, most ballparks are getting warm weather, with a few even having 10 to 15 mph breezes towards the outfield fences. Then we have hot weather and cold pitchers in Wrigley Field and Coors Field. Enjoy!
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