MLB DFS Picks, Ownership, HRs & Top Stacks for DraftKings + FanDuel

The Saturday slate was split several ways across the industry, but we still have an interesting seven-game evening main slate to consider. With most of the day’s best pitchers going in the afternoon, the main slate has two veteran aces followed by a lot of youthful upside. We have a few solid stacks from which to choose our bats, and there could be some major power upside for one or two of the popular stacks. Finding a clear secondary stack is more challenging and seems like a smart place to get started with constructions, and stack-plus-pitcher combinations for MLB DFS lineup picks on DraftKings and FanDuel today.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 10.57

Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna — 9.24

Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 7.42

Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts — 10.02

Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada — 9.52

Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 34.18

Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 9.01

Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton — 9.43

Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 4.99

New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 10.57

Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 2.26

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Lewis — 8.72

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 19.21

Toronto Blue Jays: Rowdy Tellez — 12.73

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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

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MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The MLB DFS main slate has one truly elite name and a pitcher who has been at an ace level in recent memory, in veterans Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn. The pair of pitchers make up the top end of the pitching board on both sites, with Houston’s Cristian Javier third in line for salary on both sites. Where we can afford him, it seems to make the most sense to get to shares of Lynn, though the public will be on him to a significant degree. Kershaw is trending more toward public ownership that is level with his probability of success, while Javier could be at the same point or even slightly under-owned.

Of the three, Lynn is the best arm in the best spot. The righty has thrown 24 innings over four starts this season, posting a 29.9% strikeout rate and a 4.1% walk rate, with a 0.97 WHIP and a sparkling 3.23 xFIP. Last season Lynn was at a 25.9% strikeout rate after spending 208 innings in 2019 at a 28.1% clip, so the jump back up above average is nice to see. Lynn is facing a Royals lineup that is right in the middle of the league, striking out 23.7% of the time against right-handed pitching while creating runs exactly at league average with a 100 WRC+ as a roster. The Royals have power and speed up and down the lineup, but Lynn is a top-end arm who typically pitches very deep into games. This is one of the more likely spots for a win and quality start bonus.

Kershaw is taking on an Angels lineup that has been good against left-handed pitching. The Halos strike out at a 20.0% clip in the split, good for seventh-best in the league, and they create runs 11% better than average against southpaws so far this season. Those trends continue in a larger sample extending to the start of the 2019 season, so this is not an easy matchup. Still, we are talking about one of the best pitchers of his generation, with plenty still left in the tank. Kershaw has a 3.29 xFIP and a 1.03 WHIP over seven starts and 39 innings to start the season. The lefty ace is striking out 25.8% of hitters, which is down from 28.1% last season and 26.8% the year before. Looking deeper, the veteran has actually increased his swinging strike rate so far this year, climbing from 12.9% in 2019 and 12.7% in 2020 to 15.6% so far this season, while getting a 32.5% called-plus-swinging rate, which would be his highest mark since 2016 if it holds. There is reason to believe in Kershaw, but this is not the best possible spot for him to put up a ceiling score.

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With the Astros bats looking strong against overachieving lefty Steven Matz, there could be strong win-upside in stacking them along with their starter today. Christian Javier will be owned at less than 10% by the public, around the level at which he is likely to be the leading starter. Javier is off to a strong start in 2021. He has struck out 30% of hitters over his first 25 innings, though that would also represent an average of just 5.0 innings per start. Javier has a solid 4.03 xFIP and just a 0.90 WHIP. The latter number is in line with expectations based on last season’s 0.99 over 54 innings. However, Javier is also in a tough spot. The righty is facing a Toronto team that has struck out just 22.2% of the time against right-handed pitching this season while hitting 32 home runs, putting them among the league leaders in both categories. For $9,500 on FanDuel, Javier is in play at under 10% ownership; at $10,700 on DraftKings, he could easily be considered overpriced, but that is keeping his ownership dramatically suppressed on the site. Currently, Javier has more than double the chance of being a top-two starter as the rate at which the public is paying his price tag.

LAD — 1-2-3-5-6 – Betts – Seager – Turner – Smith – Taylor

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/08/2021″ team=”angels”]

Looking for a little room on a crowded Top Stacks Tool, the Dodgers stand out for positive leverage on both sites. While the team doesn’t rank as the overall most likely to be the top option on either site, their probability of success compares favorably enough with most of the teams nearer to the top of the list. Getting to one of the best lineups in baseball, despite any struggles, when they are under-owned is always a good idea, though the Dodgers are not in a cakewalk of a matchup, taking on Angels ace Dylan Bundy. The righty hurler is striking out 27.0% of hitters across his first 36 innings in six starts this season. He has a 3.55 xFIP and a 1.08 WHIP, which is very much in line with where he was through his 65 innings last season. Bundy is now an established reliable starter with upside, but he is by no means untouchable, and the Dodgers have interesting bats at good prices on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Outfielder Mookie Betts is one of the best players in baseball, regardless of what his .257/.367/.450 slash looks like to start this season. Betts has hit four home runs and stolen four bases across the 128 plate appearance sample so far, creating runs 30% better than average and posting a .193 ISO. The star is just getting started and is priced somewhat incorrectly at just $3,900 on the FanDuel slate. He costs a full $5,700 on DraftKings, where the entire Dodgers stack will be more difficult but also more interesting to roster.

Corey Seager joins Betts as a Dodgers bat whose early returns could be considered slightly disappointing based on expectations. Seager is off to a .244/.350/.423 start, and he has also hit four home runs. In his 143 plate appearances, Seager has just a .178 ISO and has created runs 18% better than average, while he was at a .278 ISO and 152 WRC+ over 232 plate appearances in which he hit 15 home runs last season. This is an elite option at the position, he will be popular on the FanDuel slate, given a $3,500 price tag, but at $5,100 on DraftKings, he is far less owned and gains appeal.

Veteran third baseman Justin Turner has had one of the better hit tools in baseball over the last decade-plus. Starting out 2021 at a .330/.421/.580 clip with seven home runs in his first 133 plate appearances, Turner is showing no signs of slowing down with age. The third baseman has carried the Dodgers in Cody Bellinger‘s absence, posting a .250 ISO and creating runs 74% better than average. This is a terrific bat who is pricey at $5,500 but is going totally unowned on the DraftKings slate while hitting third in this lineup. Even at $3,800 on FanDuel, Turner is barely gaining any ownership. The public is making a mistake not including the veteran righty in stacks if that is the approach we see in those numbers.

Lefty Max Muncy provides positional flexibility on the FanDuel slate, slotting in at both first and second base, while he plays just first base on DraftKings. Muncy is projected to hit cleanup for the team tonight, bringing his thunderous power to the heart of the order with no ownership following him on the DraftKings slate. Muncy has just a .212 average and a .414 slugging percentage so far this season, but the middle of his triple-slash is a robust .409 on-base percentage, and he has a .202 ISO while creating runs 33% better than average; the traditional baseball stats can be ignored here, Muncy is a strong option at just $4,900 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel.

Catcher Will Smith is under 10.0% ownership on the DraftKings slate, which will always make him a consideration, given his status as one of the better power bats at the position. On a night where we want some under-owned Dodgers stacks, Smith is an extremely relevant piece of the puzzle on that site. He makes for a strong contrarian value on FanDuel as well. The catcher costs just $3,000 on the blue site and is projected for under five percent public ownership. Smith has three home runs in his first 99 plate appearances this season, posting a .225 ISO and a 133 WRC+. He should not be skipped.

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Chris Taylor adds utility by playing second base and outfield on both sites, and he costs just $4,300 on the DraftKings slate, giving him value from the lower-middle of the lineup. Taylor’s righty bat has produced a .273/.400/.485 slash so far, hitting four home runs and posting a.212 ISO. He has added three stolen bases to MLB DFS totals as well, giving him an additional boost in potential upside on any given slate. Taylor is a good mix-in option to differentiate already low-owned Dodgers stacks.

Matt Beaty, Austin Barnes and Gavin Lux make up the back-end of one of the projected lineups for this team. Barnes and Smith could play at the same time, with the Dodgers adding the DH in an American League park. If this is the case, Barnes will likely be entirely ignored for just $3,700 at catcher on DraftKings, though he has less utility even for the minimum on FanDuel. Beaty has a home run but just a .086 ISO over his first 43 plate appearances this year. He hit two long balls in his 54 chances in 2020, he does not have significant upside, but he provides positional flexibility and a discounted salary. Lux has sneaky-good power but extremely low contact rates, making him lousy as a wraparound option. He is only a low-volume mix-in consideration in Dodgers stacks.

HR Call: Yuli Gurriel — Houston Astros

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s MLB betting model.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.