Welcome to The Takedown, MMA DFS fans. This weekend we have a 12-fight UFC card in Las Vegas including the main event between Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Ciryl Gane. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $400,000 being paid out. Here, I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for DFS purposes and give some of my favorite MMA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. Let’s dig into the analysis for UFC Vegas 20: Rozenstruik vs. Gane.
MMA DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 20 DraftKings + FanDuel | Tonight
Core DFS Plays
Magomed Ankalaev | DraftKings: $9,600, FanDuel: $23
Ankalaev is currently riding a five-fight winning streak. He is explosive and extremely athletic for the light heavyweight division and is solid when the fight hits the mat, but he does his best work on the feet. Furthermore, Ankalaev will utilize his hand speed and kickboxing to interrupt Nikita Krylov’s rhythm, while looking to test Krylov’s chin early and often. Awesemo’s UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Projections give Ankalaev 76% win odds with a 51% chance for a knockout.
Mid-Priced MMA DFS Picks
Alexander Hernandez | DraftKings: $8,700, FanDuel: $20
Hernandez is coming into this matchup after a sensational first-round knockout of Chris Grutzemacher in October. He has excellent movement and will utilize his forward pressure to setup nasty front kicks to the legs and body. I expect Hernandez will look to keep this fight on the feet while using his striking and pressure to interrupt Thiago Moises’ ground game. Our UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel projections give Hernandez 65% win odds.
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Ronnie Lawrence | DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $18
Lawrence is making his UFC debut, which always makes it hard to have a true read on a fighter. However, I expect Lawrence will look for takedowns early and often, which happens to be gold in UFC DFS, especially on DraftKings. If Lawrence gets this fight to the mat, he is live for a submission. I expect the most likely outcome is Lawrence wins via unanimous decision, but he should still score well with his takedown upset. Awesemo’s UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Projections give Lawrence 60% win odds.
Value MMA DFS Picks
Kevin Croom | DraftKings: $7,800, FanDuel: $14
Croom looked spectacular as an underdog in his UFC debut, with a quick submission of Roosevelt Roberts. However, Croom’s win was overturned to a no-contest due to marijuana use. Croom has 12 first-round finishes with a combined effort of knockouts and submissions. He has 10 wins via submission all coming by way of rear-naked chock. This is a risky value play with solid upside. That said, I expect Croom to push the pace early, which will be his best path for a victory. Our UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel projections give Croom 35% win odds.
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