Welcome to The Takedown, UFC fans. This weekend, we have a 15-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $250,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some MMA DFS picks and analysis for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
MMA DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 21 on DraftKings & FanDuel
Core MMA DFS Plays
Misha Cirkunov | DraftKings: $8,300, FanDuel: $17
Cirkunov has a background in Judo — Greco-Roman wrestling. He is a southpaw striker, with huge power in his hands. Cirkunov is a strong grappler and has an excellent submission game. I expect Cirkunov will pressure Ryan Spann and look to get this fight to the mat. Furthermore, Cirkunov has the skills to finish Spann once the fight hits the mat and Cirkunov has eight wins via submission. Awesemo’s UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Projections give 53% win odds with 45% chance for a knockout.
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Mid-Priced MMA DFS Picks
Gloria de Paula | DraftKings: $8,800, FanDuel: $19
Gloria de Paula will be making her UFC debut and will be looking to make a statement. She is a high-volume striker, with extremely fast hands and solid combinations. She has defeated back-to-back unbeaten fighters, and she has three wins via TKO due to punches. I expect de Paula to score well in this fight, with her high-volume output even if she doesn’t get the finish. Our UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel projections give de Paula 63% win odds.
Matthew Semelsberger | DraftKings: $8,400, FanDuel: $16
Semelsberger is coming into this matchup riding a four-fight winning streak. He is a pressure fighter and throws nice combinations and solid kicks to the body. I expect Semelsberger will want to keep this fight standing, while using his forward pressure and body kicks to wear on Jason Witt. Semelsberger is live for a first-round knockout and could break the slate with the 60-second bonus on DraftKings. Awesemo’s UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Projections give 51% win odds.
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Value MMA DFS Picks
Belal Muhammad | DraftKings: $7,200, FanDuel: $17
Muhammad is a well-rounded fighter and is stepping up to replace Khamzat Chimaev. He is currently riding a four-fight winning streak coming into this short-notice fight, and his most recent bout was a unanimous decision win over Dhiego Lima at UFC 258 in February. I expect Muhammad will push the pace and try to interrupt Leon Edwards rhythm. That said, I would consider using Muhammad as a core play due to his upside and price. Our UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel projections give Muhammad 29% win odds.
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