NASCAR DFS PIcks: DraftKings & FanDuel Pennzoil 400 Expert Lineups

The field is set for Sunday’s race with Kevin Harvick and William Byron atop the front row. Let’s dive into the top NASCAR DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for this Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

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Pennzoil 400 NASCAR DFS Picks | DraftKings & FanDuel

Note: Pricing listed (FanDuel, DraftKings)

Kevin Harvick, 1st ($14,000, $9,700) — Cash/GPP (Dominator)

This should be one of the surest things on the board, but I’m hesitant to just write in Harvick as a core play. Since 2018, Harvick leads the Series in just about every statistical category you can think of at Las Vegas. Combine this recent history with how Harvick fared at intermediate tracks in 2020, and you have one of the most likely dominators for Sunday’s event. Also, when you look at the tire combination they’re using this Sunday, Harvick won two of those corollary races.

However, a bulk of these Vegas numbers come from the spring-2018 race when Harvick led over 200 laps. Since that race, Harvick has laps-led totals of 14, 88, 47, 92 and finally zero last fall. Likewise, his finishes have gone 39th, fourth, second, eighth and 10th during that span. These are all fair numbers but nothing that is blowing you away.

With the preferred line, Harvick should be an early favorite to lead the first segment. However, we all remember Harvick’s terrible run in 2020 as the pole sitter, a run that included laps-led totals of 28, zero and nine in his three stints as a pole sitter at intermediate ovals.

William Byron, 2nd ($9,000, $$8,300) — GPP

How easily we forget the past. The last time Byron and crew chief Randy Fugle were paired together, it was 2016 when they won the Trucks championship. Fugle’s expertise has been setting up spec engines for races with high downforce. The trail of bread crumbs should have led us to this pair succeeding in their first low-horsepower/high-downforce race. This very feat they did at Homestead, going from 31st to the lead and leading over 100 laps in the process.

This week nothing has really changed to make me think that Byron can’t run it back. Although he only has one top-five finish to his name at Las Vegas Motor Speedway since 2018, I’m willing to concede we may see a different version of Byron this season. His track history wasn’t that stellar at Homestead last weekend, and he charged through the pack and to the lead with relative ease. Now up front, the only thing stopping him from grabbing an early lead is Harvick.

Martin Truex Jr., 4th ($13,500, $11,100) — Cash/GPP (Dominator)

The modus operandi for Truex has been the hotter/slicker the better. It showed last weekend at Homestead during the second segment, as the No. 19 was the car to beat. This Sunday forecasts Las Vegas with a high in the upper 70s. That is not exactly blistering, but track temperatures will be up and should stay up consistently, as this race starts locally at 1:30 p.m. Comparatively, Truex doesn’t have the laps-led numbers of Harvick but his finishes have been more consistent save for 20th in this race last season.

Brad Keselowski, 10th ($11,300, $10,300)

Joey Logano, 15th ($13,000, $10,000) — GPP

I list these two Penske drivers together because they are essentially the same driver. It is just a matter of, do you want the driver who starts closer to the front or the driver with a hair more place differential? Whatever metric you look at, these two have put up nearly identical numbers, although Logano is averaging more dominator points. I may be wrong, but it’s almost as if they’re both running the same setup …

Personally, it is hard to get away from Logano, who has won the spring Las Vegas race for two straight years. Since joining Team Penske, Logano has led at least one lap in every Las Vegas race dating back to 2014. During that same stretch, his worst finish is 14th (summer 2020). Meanwhile, Keselowski has a similar stretch to Logano, with three wins and a 10-race string of top-10 finishes.

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Ross Chastain, 21st ($5,500, $7,300) — Cash/GPP

I don’t want to get out in front of my skis, but anytime I recommend Chastain, it feels inevitable. Chastain’s history at Las Vegas is pretty dreadful, but remember, the majority of that was in the Premium Motorsports No. 15 and then last year in the No. 6 for an injured Ryan Newman. Altogether, through his past five starts at Las Vegas, he has zero lead-lap finishes and an average finish of 28th.

However, I do believe there is optimism in playing Chastain. To start, in that spot-start last season, Chastain’s average running position was 17th, and he was running 10th after the first segment. After starting 15th, he showed that he could hold his position for the bulk of that race. Second, the No. 42 was always set up well for Larson (five top-10 finishes) and Ganassi always brought in one of the best cars for the Xfinity races at Las Vegas. One of those Xfinity races was a win by Chastain in the summer race of 2018.

Ryan Blaney, 26th ($10,700, $10,800) — Cash/GPP

Blaney may be the safest thing on the board for the DFS. Among high-priced drivers, he is the only one with a relative floor thanks to his place differential. Based on his Las Vegas Motor Speedway history, it should be well within his range of outcomes to see another top-12 finish, something he’s failed to do only once in the past six races here. He should be a shoo-in for at least 60 DraftKings/50 FanDuel points.

The only real question is what sort of dominator potential does he have? For FanDuel this question probably doesn’t matter as much since only 26.7 laps-led points are on the board. However, for DraftKings we’re going to need at least some fastest laps out of Blaney to help make value. Considering his starting position, it’s hard to really give Blaney any solid projection for laps led. Since 2018, Blaney has led 23 laps in total at Las Vegas with 19 of those coming in one event.

Matt DiBenedetto, 30th ($7,800, $9,000) Cash/GPP

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on us both? Well, here we are in the fourth straight week that DiBenedetto is a chalky pick in the pack. Is this the week he finally puts a full race together and finishes in the top 15? The fact is he overwhelmingly has the potential to do so. However, this season has seen him on the bad end of luck, and then he faded towards the end of Homestead.

I still believe DiBenedetto is safe for cash, especially in a week where it’s going to be tough to build a cash team you really feel safe with. However, for tournaments the move may be to go under the field once again on a driver destined to soak up ownership as the chalky place differential play.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com