NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

Tuesday’s six-game daily fantasy basketball slate is still walking a bit of a news knife-edge going into the late afternoon. With several key pieces information still to be announced, the entire picture could change between now and lock. As things stand, there are a few superstars in terrific spots, a few key role players with great value and possibly some overrated plays for expensive options. With six games, we will focus on a few of the top overall plays and then take a look at some leverage-based decision points. We are always looking for under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

James Harden — Brooklyn Nets

DraftKings — $11,000 — PG | FanDuel — $11,300 — SG

Let’s get this one out of the way early; Harden is the best play on both sites tonight … assuming he plays at all. Harden has been questionable all day with a sore neck, but he will be the only of the Nets’ trio of superstars to take the court if he does go. This situation typically leads to explosive upside for Harden, and the metrics on Awesemo’s boom/bust tool are bearing that out based on a presumed 38.5 minutes. Harden averages 1.43 fantasy points per minute in the situation throughout the year; he’s a no-brainer if he plays. If he doesn’t, the ground shifts beneath the entire slate, so be prepared.

On DraftKings Harden is a point guard and the priciest play on the board. He lands in the optimal lineup in 37.0% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, second to value-play teammate Bruce Brown. Harden will be very popular on the slate, but he is a fundamental building block and someone we are striving to get to by rostering value plays at other positions. Harden’s 41.6% boom-score probability against such a high salary and a median projection over 60 fantasy points make the upside apparent; the -2.0 leverage score is something we should not be intimidated by on the DraftKings slate.

For FanDuel contests Harden leads the slate by optimal-lineup rate. He lands in that spot in nearly half of simulations, coming up with a 48.5% rate that is a full 10 percentage points better than Damian Lillard‘s second-place finish in the category. Harden has a 41.6% boom-score probability that shows the upside for one of the highest salaries of the season, and he will be owned at a level 0.80 leverage score, meaning we can choose to exceed the public’s 47.7% ownership share and making Harden trend toward a must-play option — assuming he plays.

Draymond Green — Golden State Warriors

DraftKings — $7,600 — PF/C | FanDuel — $7,000 — PF

The first of two Warriors frontcourt players that we are going to look at, Green has been a productive fantasy player by virtue of his continued ability to do Draymond Green things while not scoring the basketball with much frequency. He averages 1.02 fantasy point per minute across all situations this season, though that mark has been at 0.95 per minute over during March and without Stephen Curry. Over the team’s two most recent games, Green has posted 9.5 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game while adding 2.5 stocks but scoring just 4.5 points per game on his 11.4% usage.

For the required salary on FanDuel, Green stands out at power forward. His ability to rack up counting stats combined with a nearly 34-minute projection against a low salary at what is an oddly shaped position on the blue site tonight. There are several star-caliber players in good situations, but Green surpasses them all with his 25.4% optimal-lineup rate. He has a 27.5% boom-score probability that also leads the position, while the public is behind the curve on him, leaving him with a healthy 3.3 leverage score. Getting to Green frequently seems like a great approach on FanDuel tonight.

On DraftKings, however, Green’s higher price against a lower salary cap renders him less frequently optimal and somewhat less interesting. Green lands in the optimal lineup in just 10.1% of simulations, ranking him 30th on the slate and eighth among eligible power forward options. He has just an 8.8% boom-score probability, though he will still be under-owned for the limited upside. Green has a 4.6 leverage score that makes him stand out as one of the better mix-in options at the position given salary to spend.

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James Wiseman — Golden State Warriors

DraftKings — $4,500 — C / FanDuel — $3,700 — C

Wiseman is projected for just 20.4 minutes in Awesemo’s latest update, yet he is still very much on the board on the FanDuel slate, where he is nearly at the minimum salary. For a much higher relative price on DraftKings, he is simply a mix-in play from the value range and someone who would best be rostered alongside another center. Wiseman has averaged 1.07 fantasy points per minute throughout all situations in his rookie year and has seen fluctuating minutes; he has averaged 21.6 per game over the last 10 games.

On FanDuel Wiseman ranks fourth among centers, with an 11.3% optimal-lineup rate. That mark stands only 5.5 percentage points below the slate leader, Dwight Howard, and 4.4 below the spend-up option in Nikola Jokic. For the money, Wiseman looks like a terrific play who will not have to do very much to hit a ceiling score. He compares favorably to all of the options on the slate and will be owned at just a 12.3% clip by the public, making it easy enough to double the field’s exposure on the value play. With limited options and no standout play at the singular center spot, we do not need to sweat the opportunity cost as much as we normally would for a blue-site slate.

On DraftKings Wiseman costs $4,500 and lands in the optimal lineup just 5.2% of the time. He has a 6.2% boom-score probability against that salary, and the public is getting to him at about that amount. He is fine to consider for a few shares, but there does not appear to be a great need to press much beyond the field on the play unless we get some news that changes the nature of his role.

Montrezl Harrell — Los Angeles Lakers

Another standout center play on the board pops up on the Lakers depleted roster. Out of all the options we have explored in the absence of LeBron James and Anthony Davis, Harrell has actually been the team’s leader in usage in the situation, jumping to a 28% share. He averages 1.33 fantasy points per minute in the situation, production for which he is unpriced on the DraftKings slate.

Harrell stands out, ranking third overall with a 23.0% optimal-lineup rate given his relatively low salary. He has a quality 23.7% boom-score probability and a 37.6 raw point projection for the slate, which would be interesting on their own, though Harrell has the public’s attention and is weighted down by a -6.5 leverage score. With several similarly optimal choices at the position, and the ability to get different with a less expensive play, it could make sense to duck slightly below the field while still being sure to get to some shares of what looks like a strong play.

On FanDuel Harrell slots into the group of quality center options at a 12.2% optimal-lineup rate. Comparing him to Wiseman makes sense in that regard, and Harrell costs more and will have a -5.8 leverage score, which should likely make us want more of the Warriors’ value option than Harrell. While we will have plenty of Harrell in our lineups, it seems like a good bet to undercut the field’s 18.0% mark on this site as well.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.