This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | March 23
Point Guard
James Harden ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) is questionable tonight with neck soreness. If he plays, he is the clear top pay up option on the slate as he takes on the Portland Trail Blazers with Kyrie Irving out for personal reasons. This spot checks all of the boxes. Harden has averaged 1.80 DraftKings points per minute in four games played without Kevin Durant or Irving since joining in the Nets. He has played a total of 386 minutes without either of them on the floor and has averaged 1.70 DraftKings points per minute. This type of per-minute production is in line with Harden’s production in Houston whenever Russell Westbrook or Chris Paul were out as well. The matchup is also excellent as the Blazers have been the least efficient defense in the NBA over the last month (though they also have played at the fourth-slowest pace). There is no reason not to view Harden as a priority in any type of contest tonight. If you come across someone that doesn’t have him in cash games, consider taking out a large loan and then playing that person for as much money as possible on future slates (not financial advice).
Russell Westbrook ($10,800 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel) is a natural tournament pivot to Harden given his salary and upside, but it’s still difficult to support that move unless the ownership disparity is massive. Westbrook has been an excellent fantasy producer this season with 1.51 DraftKings points per minute in 32 games played alongside Bradley Beal this season. He has been even better since the All-Star break, averaging 1.64 DraftKings points per minute over six games with Beal. Westbrook is a triple-double candidate any time he takes the floor and that gives him a massive ceiling. The problem when comparing him to Harden is two-fold, however. First, Westbrook’s excellent per-minute production is still far short of Harden’s per-minute production without Durant or Irving. Second, Westbrook has the more difficult matchup as he takes on a Knicks team that is 25th in pace and 13th in defensive rating over the last month and just returned rim protector Mitchell Robinson to the lineup. Westbrook is certainly capable of out-scoring Harden, but Harden is the heavy favorite given the two players’ circumstances tonight.
Damian Lillard ($10,000 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) has seen a decrease in salary now that C.J. McCollum is active. McCollum’s return hurts Lillard’s average production, but it doesn’t decrease Lillard’s massive ceiling. Lillard has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in 17 games played with McCollum this season and we could see a fun back and forth affair between Lillard and Harden tonight. In the games that he has played with McCollum this season, Lillard has a 30.5 percent usage rate and 30.6 percent assist rate and has averaged 36.1 minutes per game.
Ben Simmons ($8,800 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) will play another game with Joel Embiid sidelined as he faces the Golden State Warriors tonight. Simmons has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in nine games without Embiid this season compared to 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 26 games with Embiid active. The Warriors are seventh in defensive rating over the last month but they have also played at the third-fastest pace, so Simmons should benefit from additional possessions. His salary incorporates Embiid’s absence at this point, but there is still plenty of upside given the bigger role that Simmons will need to play offensively.
Dennis Schroder ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) played 29.9 minutes in the Lakers’ blowout loss to the Suns on Sunday. He lost about 2 minutes to garbage time. He also lost playing time to foul trouble, however, as he picked up his fourth foul with 6 minutes to go in the third quarter. Using his first half rotation as a guide, it appears he lost about four or 5 minutes due to fouls and garbage time. I think that we see 33-plus minutes from Schroder tonight in a great matchup against the Pelicans. New Orleans is 25th in defensive rating and 14th in pace over the last month. Schroder has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.9 percent usage rate and 30.4 percent assist rate in 260 minutes played without LeBron James or Anthony Davis on the floor this season.
Jordan Poole ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) is likely to get another start with Stephen Curry out tonight for Golden State. Poole has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.3 percent usage rate and 19.2 percent assist rate in his two starts without Curry. He has averaged 36.1 minutes per game in those two games. Poole’s salary is increasing, but he still offers plenty of upside based on his ability as a scorer and the abundance of playing time. He looks like a much better option on DraftKings than FanDuel.
Alex Caruso ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) played 24.9 minutes off the bench in the Lakers’ last game and I expect about 24 minutes from him again tonight against the Pelicans. Caruso has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he isn’t the most exciting option as he only has a 14.1 percent usage rate and 16.7 percent assist rate. Still, he is inexpensive in a good matchup and there are plenty of players that we would like to pay up for on this slate.
Tyler Johnson ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) played 31.5 minutes off the bench when Irving was out last week, including closing the game. With Landry Shamet also sidelined tonight, it should help to secure Johnson’s minutes. Johnson hasn’t been a productive player from a DFS standpoint this season with 0.65 DraftKings points per minute, but he projects as a good point-per-dollar value on DraftKings at near minimum salary that could allow us to fit an extra stud into our lineup at a different position.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Harden, Dennis Schroder, Jordan Poole
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons, Dennis Schroder
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Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,400 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) was extremely disappointing in his last game against the Nets and now he gets a more difficult matchup against the Knicks. Beal has struggled since the All-Star break with only 1.09 DraftKings points per minute in the six games that he has played with Westbrook. While the per-minute production over a small sample isn’t particularly concerning, Beal’s 28.8 percent usage rate is more of a concern. Beal has a 34.2 percent usage rate in 32 total games with Westbrook this season, so that his recent usage is noticeably lower. It could still be a sample size issue, but it could a combination of other things such as a nagging injury for Beal, a fully healthy Westbrook or teams adjusting their defensive schemes to get the ball out of Beal’s hands. The point here is that his recent play is a cause for concern outside of just the fact that he has had some bad fantasy performances. Still, he is relatively inexpensive for his upside and the shooting guard position is extremely thin tonight so there is merit in tournaments.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,800) has averaged 33.5 minutes per game in four games without Curry this season. He has also averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in those games, though that number is skewed by his massive performance two games ago. In 454 minutes without Curry on the floor this season, Wiggins has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.7 percent usage rate and 15.4 percent assist rate. He is second on the team with 8.5 potential assists per game in the two most recent games without Curry (Draymond Green is first with 16 potential assists per game). While we shouldn’t expect another 60 fantasy point outburst from Wiggins, he still grades out as one of the top options at a thin shooting guard position.
Bruce Brown ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) is likely to take on an increased role with Irving sidelined (and if Harden is also out Brown could become close to a must-play). Landry Shamet is also out tonight, so there is even less competition for backcourt minutes. Brown started and played 23.9 minutes the last time that Irving was out. I expect we get a few more minutes than that from Brown tonight. He has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute in 804 total minutes this season.
Furkan Korkmaz ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) joined the 76ers’ starting lineup last game and played about 28 minutes. I expect him to start again tonight against the Warriors because I don’t think there is anyone on Golden State that warrants Matisse Thybulle’s defensive attention. Korkmaz has started four games without Embiid and with Simmons and Tobias Harris since the start of last season. He has averaged 27.2 minutes per game and 0.71 DraftKings points per minute in those starts. Overall, he has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute in 24 games played alongside Simmons and Harris without Embiid over the last two seasons. He is a decent option on DraftKings and a better option at minimum salary on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andrew Wiggins, Bruce Brown
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: James Harden, Andrew Wiggins, Bruce Brown, Furkan Korkmaz
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) is expensive and has a difficult matchup against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are third in defensive rating over the last month, but they are eighth in pace, which is a step up from where they have been most of the season. Butler carries some appeal on this slate because the small forward position is one of the least appealing on the slate. He has been an excellent fantasy producer this season with 1.37 DraftKings points per minute in 25 games played with Bam Adebayo active. Butler has a 27.1 percent usage rate, 13.5 percent rebounding rate and 35.7 percent assist rate in those games. I still think Butler is more of a luxury than a necessity on this slate, but the lack of clear cut top plays at the small forward position makes him an interesting option.
Brandon Ingram ($7,800 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) faces his former team tonight. The Lakers aren’t quite as imposing defensively with James and Davis sidelined either. Ingram has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.3 percent usage rate and 21.2 percent assist rate in 40 games with Zion Williamson active this season. He offers one of the better combinations of floor and ceiling at this position.
Kyle Kuzma ($6,800 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) has a favorable matchup against the Pelicans with James and Davis out. Kuzma played 36.2 minutes in the Lakers’ loss to the Suns in their last game and he has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in 318 minutes without James or Davis on the floor this season. In the two full games that Kuzma has played without either player this season, however, he has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.4 percent usage rate, 15.9 percent rebounding rate and 19.3 percent assist rate. Even if Kuzma’s per-minute production decreases and ends up closer to 1 fantasy point per minute, he still projects as a strong option at his current salary in a good matchup.
R.J. Barrett ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,200) is a risky option in a great matchup. The Wizards are 22nd in defensive rating and first in pace over the last month. Barrett has averaged 33.6 minutes per game over the last month and 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season. The concern for Barrett is that Derrick Rose isn’t on the injury report (though he is likely to be limited in his first game back from COVID) and Elfrid Payton is listed as questionable. When the Knicks were at full strength before their recent rash of injuries, we frequently saw Barrett’s playing time decrease to 29 or 30 minutes. He’s not a productive enough player to feel confident rostering at his current salary if he is only going to play 30 minutes. If Payton is out and Rose is limited, however, then I expect we see another 33 to 34 minutes from Barrett, which would put him in play against the Wizards.
Kelly Oubre ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) hasn’t benefited from Curry’s absence as much as Andrew Wiggins has so far, but he offers a similar range of outcomes at a cheaper price tag. Oubre has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute in three full games without Curry this season and 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in 295 total minutes without Curry on the floor. Oubre has a 21.6 percent usage rate in those minutes. When he is shooting well, however, we could see more field goal attempts and more playing time.
Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,000 SG FanDuel) has quickly been priced up to account for James and Davis being out. The increased salary makes him a riskier option, but he does still have upside at his salary. The Lakers need scoring and playmaking off the bench and Horton-Tucker provides it. He has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 21.2 percent usage rate and 18.4 percent assist rate this season. He isn’t a top option at this salary like he was last slate, but he is still a viable option.
Joe Harris ($5,400 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) played 37 minutes in his last game without Irving and I expect that we see 34-plus minutes again tonight. He has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in the four games that he has played without Irving and Durant and alongside Harden this season. Overall this season, Harris has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 386 minutes without Irving or Durant on the floor this season. He isn’t a particularly exciting option, but he does have a good matchup and should play a lot of minutes at a weak position and cheap price point.
Derrick Jones ($3,700 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) is another unexciting value option who could play a lot of minutes tonight. Jones only played about 20 minutes in the Blazers’ blowout loss to Dallas last game, but he played 30 and 32 minutes in Portland’s previous two games. He has only averaged 0.70 DraftKings points per minute this season but he could be useful to allow us to get another star into our lineup at another position.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Kelly Oubre, Rui Hachimura, Joe Harris
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/23/2021″ team=”knicks”]
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) has been excellent this season and has one of the best matchups possible against the Wizards. Randle has average 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and 37 minutes per game this season. He is also the one player on the team whose minutes weren’t hurt the last time that the Knicks were fully healthy so we can feel more confident in him than anyone else. He contributes in every category with a 27.8 percent usage rate, 15.9 percent rebounding rate and 27.5 percent assist rate. The Wizards will most likely allow Randle to score at an above-average rate while also allowing the Knicks to convert his potential assists at an above-average rate. Washington has also allowed the fifth-most total rebounds per game over the last month. Randle’s 11.1 rebounds per game ranks 12th in the league this season. It’s hard to draw up a better spot for Randle.
Zion Williamson ($8,700 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) has produced at a higher rate recently thanks to increased usage and an increased assist rate. Williamson has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute with a 32 percent usage rate and 19.6 percent assist rate in 359 minutes over the last month compared to 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.7 percent usage rate and 16.9 percent assist rate overall this season. It will still be difficult to prioritize Williamson given the number of strong pay up options on this slate, including Randle at the same position, but it is worth noting that Williamson has seemingly taken a step forward as a DFS producer.
Tobias Harris ($8,500 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) is expensive now that he has played several games in a row without Embiid, but he still offers a high ceiling because he takes on a much bigger role offensively without Embiid on the floor. In nine games without Embiid and with Simmons active this season, Harris has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 29 percent usage rate, 11.6 percent rebounding rate and 15.6 percent assist rate.
Rui Hachimura ($6,000 DraftKings/$5,200 SF FanDuel) has been playing big minutes recently and I expect that to continue with Davis Bertans sidelined. He played 40.2 minutes against the Nets on Sunday and he has played at least 36 minutes in five straight games. Hachimura has averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in 27 games with Beal and Westbrook active this season. His salary is especially appealing on FanDuel where he is listed as a small forward.
Paul Millsap ($3,900 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) has started 19 games with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter all active this season. In those starts, Millsap has averaged 24.3 minutes per game and 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. His playing time is volatile, but that works in both directions as Millsap played 29.8 minutes against the Pelicans in his last game. The general rule of thumb for rostering players with volatile playing time is to target them when they are low owned and/or when they are at the bottom of their pricing range. We won’t get a much cheaper price point on Millsap this season than $3,900 on DraftKings.
Aaron Gordon ($6,900 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) formally requested a trade out of Orlando and I’m not sure what impact, if any, that will have on his playing time. He isn’t on Orlando’s injury report so I am assuming that he will play until I hear otherwise. Gordon has been playing big minutes recently and he has been very productive this season. In 14 games with Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic active, Gordon has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.9 percent usage rate, 12.1 percent rebounding rate and 21.2 percent assist rate. He has also been getting back-up point guard minutes recently and Chasson Randle is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is out, I expect Gordon to be the point guard for the second unit, which would increase his expected production. The matchup against the Nuggets isn’t particularly appealing, but Gordon projects well assuming his trade request doesn’t negatively affect his playing time.
Edtitor’s Note: Chasson Randle has been ruled out.
Jae Crowder ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) has a terrible matchup against Miami. The Heat have played at the third-slowest pace over the last month while allowing the fifth-fewest points per 100 possessions. Crowder has been starting for Phoenix, however, and is inexpensive. He played 30.6 minutes against the Lakers in his last game and he has averaged 29.3 minutes per game in 19 starts with Paul and Devin Booker active this season. Crowder has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute in those starts.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle, Tobias Harris, Paul Millsap
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle, Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon, Jae Crowder
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) has been one of the best DFS options all season long. He has averaged 1.67 DraftKings points per minute and 35.8 minutes per game this season. He leads the Nuggets with a 29.2 percent usage rate, 17.7 percent rebounding rate and 40.1 percent assist rate. The center is almost averaging a triple double this season with 27.1 points, 11.2 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game. The combination of playing time and production in every statistical category gives him an extremely high ceiling while also allowing him to consistently produce big games even if one part of his game is less effective than usual.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,700 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) is a poor man’s Jokic. In 14 games with Fournier and Gordon active this season, Vucevic has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute and 34.2 minutes per game. He has a 28 percent usage rate, 17.5 percent rebounding rate and 19.6 percent assist rate in those games, averaging 20.8 points, 11.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. While Vucevic offers a high ceiling because he plays a lot of minutes and contributes in every category, his salary is still a little higher than it should be for his average production thanks to a number of games played without Gordon and/or Fournier.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) played 34.4 minutes against the Suns with Marc Gasol out and Damian Jones no longer on the team. Gasol isn’t on the injury report for tonight’s game, but he wasn’t listed prior to the Lakers’ last game either and he ended up missing it. If Gasol plays, Harrell still should get about 30 minutes but it would be more difficult to trust him at his salary. If Gasol sits, we should see another 32-plus minutes from Harrell. He could have difficulty with Steven Adams given the size mismatch, but the Lakers don’t really have an alternative that offers more size than Harrell. The biggest risk to his playing time if Gasol is out is that the Lakers could play five out and try to shoot Adams off the floor. Harrell is a risky play at his salary, but he does offer substantial upside thanks to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 304 minutes without James or Davis on the floor this season.
Enes Kanter ($6,400 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) has only played 16 and 23 minutes in his last two games, but it is important to look further than those numbers. He played about 12.5 first half minutes against Dallas last game and then barely played in the second half of a blowout. The game before that, he wasn’t in the closing lineup against a Mavericks’ frontcourt of Maxi Kleber and Kristaps Porzingis that can stretch the floor. Prior to those two games, Kanter had played at least 26 minutes in five straight games. I feel better about Kanter’s playing time against Brooklyn than against Dallas for a couple of reasons. First, DeAndre Jordan and Nicolas Claxton combined to play 43.5 minutes at center against the Wizards in Brooklyn’s last game. Jordan and Claxton have combined for 3 3-point attempts this season. They are not going to stretch the floor and force Kanter out of the paint. Second, Harden has averaged 8.4 pick-and-roll possessions per game this season. While that is in the top 20 in the league, it is only 34.2 percent of his possessions. By comparison, Luka Doncic (Kanter’s opponent in the two recent games where he played less minutes than normal) has averaged 13.9 pick-and-roll possessions per game, which is tied for the most in the league and accounts for 48.8 percent of his possessions. Kanter’s biggest weakness defensively is his pick-and-roll defense. He is a good rebounder and a solid post-up defender. He just gets lost in the pick-and-roll. That shouldn’t be as much of an issue tonight as it is against Dallas and the Nets’ center rotation should allow him to stay near the basket. There is no guarantee that the Blazers don’t play small, but the matchup against the Nets is less likely to dictate it than the matchup against the Mavericks did. Most importantly, Kanter’s salary has decreased to a point where there is more upside than downside.
Dwight Howard ($6,000 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) played 28 minutes in regulation against the Knicks on Sunday. He has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute and 25.2 minutes per game in 12 games without Embiid this season. He is an especially strong value at only $5,400 on FanDuel.
Deandre Ayton ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) warrants some attention just because he is cheaper than normal. The reason he is so inexpensive, however, is because his playing time has been inconsistent lately. Part of the inconsistency has been due to foul trouble but part has also been that Dario Saric is a productive back-up that is able to steal minutes from Ayton at times. Ayton played 32 minutes against the Lakers on Sunday and that is the only time that he had topped 30 minutes in his last nine games. For the season, Ayton has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and 29.8 minutes per game. He also has a difficult matchup against Miami. I have some tournament interest in Ayton if he is low owned but I will gladly look elsewhere if he is getting a lot of ownership.
Nicolas Claxton ($3,900 DraftKings/$4,600 PF FanDuel) played 26.2 minutes and closed the game against the Wizards on Sunday. That marked the third straight game that Claxton played at least 23 minutes. Hopefully, the Nets are going to start letting him get more playing time. He is still a risky option since we don’t know for sure if the Nets are actively looking to get Claxton more minutes or if it is just a short hot streak, but he has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season so he projects as a strong value if he does get another 23 or 24 minutes tonight against Portland. Claxton has also been very good at blocking shots this season, which could come in handy against frequent drives from Lillard and McCollum.
Alex Len ($3,900 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) had an excellent game against the Nets on Sunday but he has a more difficult matchup against the Knicks tonight. Len offers upside because he has averaged close to a fantasy point per minute in his career, but he is also risky because the Wizards’ center rotation is anything but consistent. In six starts with Beal and Westbrook active this season, Len has averaged 19.6 minutes per game and 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. His playing time in individual games has ranged from 8 minutes to 29 minutes, which gives an idea of the type of volatility Len offers. Excluding the 8-minute game against Charlotte and the 29 minute game against Brooklyn, Len has played between 18 and 24 minutes in his other four starts.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Montrezl Harrell, Enes Kanter
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Enes Kanter, Dwight Howard
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