NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

For just a seven-game NBA DFS slate, there are several very interesting looking games on the board for both real basketball action and daily fantasy basketball purposes. There are interesting opportunities up and down the salary spectrum on both sites that stand out on today’s boom/bust tool. The slate has two games — Heat – Hawks and Cavaliers v- Hornets — that are totaled significantly lower than the others on the board, which gives the slate an interesting shape. There are still options in those games, but there is also room to get to some of the very best plays on both sites given the distribution of public ownership. With seven games on the slate, this article will focus on several strong leverage plays with upside. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

John Wall — Houston Rockets

DraftKings — $7,500 — PG | FanDuel — $7,800 — PG

Wall is one of the few Rockets who does not currently appear on the injury report, making him interesting enough on opportunity alone, though he is in a tough matchup against the Clippers. Wall averages 1.01 fantasy points per minute this season without this set of teammates on the floor this season. That is a good but not great mark for the price. He would be better with the 1.13 mark he puts up across all situations for the season or the 1.15 rate he has had since the beginning of March. Wall is a productive, high-end player, and the tools are showing good reasons to roster him on both sites.

The DraftKings board has Wall ranked second when sorting for the frequency with which a player lands in the optimal lineup. He trails only value play Brandon Goodwin on the site in the category and is at essentially double Goodwin’s raw fantasy point projection. Wall has a 29.1% boom-score probability on the slate. He is inexpensive relative to the other high-end options at the position tonight, but he will be under-owned. The most appealing aspect of playing Wall tonight is doing so with significant leverage, as he stands at an 8.1 leverage score with just 18.4% public popularity.

On the FanDuel slate, Wall ranks seventh with a 22.1% optimal-appearance rate. He is third best at his position in the category, trailing Wizards point guards Russell Westbrook and Raul Neto in the mid-afternoon update. Wall has strong upside on the blue site as well with a 29.7% boom-score probability — strong upside for an unpopular player. He will be rostered by the public at just a 13.4% clip, leaving him with a very appealing 8.7 leverage score. Getting beyond the field on him tonight seems like an easy first click.

Damian Lillard — Portland Trail Blazers

DraftKings — $9,500 — PG | FanDuel — $8,700 — PG

Lillard could be the next click at point guard on FanDuel in a high percentage of well-built lineups tonight. He is a different play across sites; DraftKings has him priced appropriately for his talent and upside, while FanDuel’s price is wrong. Lillard averages 1.26 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, and he should be in line for his usual production with plenty of room for upside. Portland is taking on the Grizzlies in one of the night’s two games totaled at over 230 points, suggesting he could be in a high-octane spot.

On the FanDuel slate, Lillard ranks immediately behind Wall when sorting by optimal-appearance rate, landing with a 21.6%. Lillard is a similar play to Wall for a higher salary. Both point guards can be rostered together and look like an appealing combination. Lillard has a 26.4% boom-score probability and strong upside, but the public isn’t getting there, leaving him with a 6.2 leverage score that stands out alongside Wall’s number in that category.

On DraftKings, the play is dramatically different. Lillard is not off the board, but his price is at the right level at $9,500. He still lands in the optimal lineup in 10.1% of simulated slates and carries an 11.3% boom-score probability, but the upside is limited on a play with just a 1.7 leverage score. Rostering more Lillard than the public is viable but not mandatory.

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Christian Wood — Houston Rockets

DraftKings — $8,300 — PF/C | FanDuel — $8,000 — PF

The other primary healthy body for the Rockets, Wood looks like a strong play from that team on both sites tonight as well. Wood has had a strong season, averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute across all situations this year and 1.17 fantasy points per minute in situations without this set of teammates since the start of March. That rate would put him in range of a viable score with upside for better given his salary and projected minutes. With the available leverage, Wood could be a difference maker in GPPs tonight.

On the DraftKings slate, Wood adds center eligibility and picks up additional utility. He costs more by comparison but lands in the optimal lineup in 13.9% of simulated slates. For the $8,300 price tag, he carries an 11.1% boom-score probability and the public will be well behind the curve. Wood stands out among power forwards and centers for his significant 5.5 leverage score, which is only rivaled by the less relevant and currently questionable Juan Toscano-Anderson. This could be an excellent play if the public does not catch up to rostering Wood.

He sits 16th overall by optimal-appearance rate on FanDuel, coming in at 16.2%. His lower salary also inflates his boom-score probability on the site, which pushes up to a 22.6% against a 38.9 raw FanDuel points projection. Wood will only be owned in 14.0% of public rosters, leaving a fair amount of room to get to him at a 2.2 leverage score. Rostering Wood at a more frequent clip than the public is another strong leverage spot on the slate on both sites. He fits in well alongside his teammate and Lillard as a great jumping off point to a lineup construction with a high probability of landing as the optimal build while not eating all the chalk on the board.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.