NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Projections & High-Upside Plays

In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.

*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.

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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Jan. 20

NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates

Xavier Tillman vs. Blazers: $4,600/$3,500

33% DraftKings Boom/16% FanDuel Boom

Due to COVID issues, the Grizzlies are shorthanded. Jonas Valanciunas finds himself in contact tracing protocols for the second time this season and is out for tonight’s game. With him out of the lineup, we saw Memphis turn to Tillman to start last game. He played 29 minutes but also dealt with foul trouble. If not for four personal fouls, we could have seen Tillman play over 30 minutes. Tillman is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute, making him one of the top points-per-dollar plays on the slate. On DraftKings he is a must-roster in cash games as long as he draws another start.

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Damian Lillard vs. Grizzlies: $10,400/$10,000

29% DraftKings Boom/42% FanDuel Boom

Lillard is easily my favorite player to spend up for on tonight’s slate. With C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic out, Lillard has to to do everything for Portland. This team is in danger of falling out of the playoff picture if he doesn’t play out of his mind while this team is banged up. We got a look at what Lillard’s role will look like going forward in the Blazers’ last game. He played 36 minutes with a 39.8 usage rate. If not for a blowout, we could have seen Lillard push for 40 minutes. He missed the last few minutes of the game since Portland lost by 21, and there was no need to leave the starters on the court.

Aaron Gordon vs. Timberwolves: $7,400/$7,000

28.2% DraftKings Boom/43.1% FanDuel Boom

After starting the season on minutes restriction, Gordon is back to playing full minutes. We no longer have concerns about his workload. Gordon played 36 minutes last game, making it the third time in the last five games that he saw at least 35 minutes of run. He’s also playing a big role as a facilitator for Orlando. Due to injuries to Markelle Fultz and Evan Fournier, the offense is running through Gordon. As a result, he’s averaging 5.7 assists in his last five games and came an assist shy of a triple-double on Monday. Gordon’s price is up a bit, but it still isn’t high enough relative to his current role.

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NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates

Andre Drummond vs. Nets: $10,500/$9,900

66.5% DraftKings Bust/61.6% FanDuel Bust

I have no clue what to make of the Cavaliers’ frontcourt rotation. This was already a team loaded with big men, and now they traded for Jarrett Allen. He makes his Cleveland debut playing against the Nets, his old team. The Cavs now have three centers to give minutes to between Drummond, Allen and JaVale McGee. That is not to mention that they are also getting Kevin Love back from injury at some point. Unless this team is going to play gigantic lineups, there is a risk that all these guys play limited minutes. This my real concern with Drummond. If he loses even a couple of minutes, his ceiling and floor start to decrease.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.