NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Jonathan Kuminga Could See Increases Role

Friday delivers a 10-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Friday, Dec. 16.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 16

High-End Tier

Trae Young is expected to be the most popular high-end spend on the slate tonight. In Stokastic’s projections, he is expected to be a top-10 most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Young is gaining significant attention because the Hawks will be without Dejounte Murray (ankle), John Collins (ankle) and Clint Capela (calf), and tonight’s Hawks – Hornets matchup carries the highest total on the slate (240 points). That being said, Young has struggled mightily recently and is worth a fade with this 10-game slate presenting a plethora of other studs to attack. Even with Murray and Collins missing the last three, Young has only produced 46.6 DraftKings points per game, while shooting an ugly 33% from the field and 23% from beyond the arc. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Young is rating as a bottom-10 option on the slate in terms of leverage score for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Slated for less than 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Anthony Davis is rating as a positive leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. He has been spectacular this month, averaging 68.4 DraftKings points per game, excluding Dec. 6 against the 76ers, when Davis exited after only eight minutes due to an illness. Overall, he is leading the Lakers with a 31% usage rate and 1.7 DraftKings points per minute in December. Tonight, the Lakers will be hosting a Nuggets defense that ranks 28th in efficiency. This game’s total ranks third on the slate (237 points) and Denver is only favored 1.5-points, which is tied for the smallest spread of the night. Davis has 70-fantasy-point upside in this elite setting and is a player we must have exposure to tonight.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is also an under owned stud that needs to be included in your player pool. He has faced three brutal matchups in a row, going against the Cavaliers, Mavericks and Heat, three clubs that all rank in the bottom-five in pace this season, but is in a prime spot tonight, taking on the Timberwolves. Minnesota ranks 17th in defensive efficiency and both the Thunder and Timberwolves rank inside the top-five in pace this season. This contest’s total total is the fourth highest on the slate (233.5 points) and the Thunder boast their highest implied team total of the season (118 points). Furthermore, Oklahoma City is only a 2.5-point favorite. Gilgeous-Alexander ranks sixth in the league in usage this season (34.3%) and has been a stud in competitive environments, averaging 53 DraftKings points per game in spreads under three points (six games).

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Value Tier

As noted above, the Hawks will be missing Murray, Collins and Capela tonight. This has Bogdan Bogdanovic and Onyeka Okongwu both projecting to be two of the top-five most rostered players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While fading Young is a logical move at his hefty price tags, ignoring Bogdanovic and Okongwu is difficult at their reasonable price points in this slate-high total against the Hornets (240 points). Bogdanovic is supplying 39.5 DraftKings in 33.2 minutes per game in these past three with Murray and Collins sidelined, and scores one DraftKings points per minute with a 29.3% usage rate with Murray, Collins and Capela off the floor this season. As for Okongwu, he will operate as Atlanta’s primary big with Capela joining Collins on the sidelines and this is a juicy spot for centers, with Charlotte yielding the second most rebounds and eighth most points in the paint. Okongwu should see 25-30 minutes of work, which is plenty of time for him to destroy his low salaries. With Murray, Collins and Capela off the floor this season, Okongwu is providing 1.1 DraftKings points per minute.

For contrarian value plays, Tim Hardaway Jr. is a great target, with small forward lacking many appealing targets and Stokastic forecasting him for low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. After putting up a dud of only 7.25 DraftKings points Wednesday against the Cavs, Hardaway’s price tags on both DraftKings and FanDuel have dropped to very reasonable levels. After facing that Cleveland defense that leads the league in efficiency, the wing is in a perfect bounce back spot against a Trail Blazers defense that ranks 23rd in efficiency. Hardaway had scored at least 27 DraftKings points in six of his previous eight starts before Wednesday -including three efforts over 40 DraftKings points – and this game’s total is up to 225.5 points, which is high for the Mavericks, who rank dead last in pace. Hardaway has responded with 31.7 DraftKings points per game in totals of at least 225 this year.

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Situations to Monitor

For the Warriors, Stephen Curry (shoulder) and Andrew Wiggins (groin) have been ruled out, while Draymond Green (quad) and Klay Thompson (knee) are questionable. While this is a difficult spot for Golden State, facing a 76ers defense that ranks fifth in efficiency, Jordan Poole would have to be considered if Green and Thompson are out, along with Jonathan Kuminga, who would likely start and play huge minutes in this scenario. With Curry, Wiggins, Green and Thompson off the floor this season, Poole leads the Warriors with a 32.3% usage rate, while Kuminga’s usage jumps up to 20%. Even with Curry, Green and Thompson available, Kuminga has seen his role grow as of late, scoring 29.3 DraftKings points in 25.5 minutes per game across his last four. So, if the Warriors end up being extremely understaffed, Kuminga’s strong play would almost certainly continue.

On top of Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) being out, Rudy Gobert (ankle) and D’Angelo Russell (knee) are questionable for the Timberwolves tonight. As noted above, this matchup with the Thunder sports the fourth highest total on the slate (233.5 points) and if either Gobert or Russell sit, there will be elite values to attack from Minnesota. First off, if Gobert is inactive, Naz Reid would likely start and be a free square at his low salaries. With Towns out and Gobert getting ejected after nine minutes back on Dec. 3, Reid flourished as the Timberwolves’ primary big man, posting a double-double worth 49 DraftKings points across 30 minutes against the same Thunder club he will meet tonight. Overall, Reid is supplying 1.2 DraftKings points per minute this season. Now, if Russell is unavailable, Jaylen Nowell would be a worthwhile risk in GPPs, even if he didn’t start in place of Russell. While Nowell disappointed with only 17.25 DraftKings points with Russell out Wednesday, this was in a brutal spot against the Clippers, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency and 27th in pace. Tonight presents a much better spot, with Oklahoma City leading the league in pace and ranking 21st in defensive efficiency, and Nowell would bring a ceiling over 30 fantasy points if Russell was to miss his second straight. In the 234 minutes he has played with Towns and Russell off the floor this season, Nowell has led the Timberwolves with a large 28.4% usage rate, lifting him to 1.1 DraftKings points per minute.

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