Ahead of Sunday’s 10-game slate, this NFL DFS first look article provides an early look at DraftKings and FanDuel main slates and evaluates some of the top options at each position.
NFL First Look: Week 15 NFL DFS Picks
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Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts, PHI vs. CHI ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Hurts’ magical season continued this past Sunday with his third consecutive effort of over 30 DraftKings points. For the season, Hurts ranks third in yards per attempt (8.1) and fourth in passing touchdowns (22), while only throwing three picks. On top of this tremendous efficiency as a passer, Hurts has seen incredible usage as a rusher, leading all quarterbacks in carries per game (10.8) and red zone rushes (43). Facing this Bears defense that is allowing the second-most yards per attempt (7.5) and is the worst-graded defense on PFF, the Eagles boast the second-highest implied team total on the slate (29.5 points). Furthermore, this game’s total is tied for the largest on the board (48.5 points). Hurts has been a stud in totals of at least 45 points this season, with 29 DraftKings points per game (seven games).
Mike White, NYJ vs. DET ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
White is the best option if looking to save at quarterback this week. In his three full starts this season, White is averaging a solid 7.4 yards per attempt and has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points twice. The Jets have thrown the ball at the seventh-highest rate in the league since White took over at quarterback and on the menu for this Sunday is fantasy’s ultimate matchup in the Lions, who are giving up the second-most yards per pass (7.5). This game’s total ranks fourth on the slate (44.5 points) and White should return value with at least 20 DraftKings points in this perfect spot.
Update: Zach Wilson will be starting for the Jets in place of White on Sunday and is a viable punt in this dream spot vs. the Lions, that surely won’t come with much ownership. In Stokastic’s projections, the quarterback is projected to be under 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.Â
Running Backs
Derrick Henry, TEN vs. LAC ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)
Going against a Chargers defense that is surrendering the most yards per rush in the league (5.4), Henry is an appealing spend this weekend. The workhorse back is leading all running backs in carries per game (21.2) and ranks second in red zone attempts (33), while playing 64% of the snaps. Additionally, Henry’s role in the passing game has been solid, garnering a target on 23% of his routes, while running a route on 38% of his team’s dropbacks. This matchup’s total ranks third on the slate (46 points) and Henry is supplying 21.5 DraftKings points per game in totals of at least 45 points over the last three seasons (29 games).
Alvin Kamara, NO vs. ATL ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
This is a great time to buy low on Kamara. Coming off back-to-back poor efforts on the road, he shouldn’t be a popular option this week and is in a nice spot to get back on track, as a 4-point home favorite against a Falcons defense that is the sixth-worst-graded unit on PFF. Despite his recent struggles, Kamara is still averaging 13 carries per game – which is 73% of the Saints running back carries – while logging 71% of the snaps. He has seen 13 red zone rushes this season and has seen terrific usage as a receiver, obtaining a target on 28% of his routes, while running a route on 58% of his team’s dropbacks. Kamara has been dramatically better on his home turf this season, scoring 22.1 DraftKings points per game, which is more than double his average on the road and is generating 25 DraftKings points per game when competing as a home favorite over the last three seasons (14 games).
Ezekiel Elliot, DAL vs. JAX ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Since returning in Week 11, Elliot has had the slight edge in usage over Tony Pollard, leading this backfield with 15.8 carries per game, which is 49.2% of the Cowboys running back carries during this time. Elliott has also seen 16 red zone rushes – which is double the amount Pollard has seen – and been targeted on 19% of his routes, while running a route on 39% of his team’s dropbacks. Elliot comes into this week providing at least 15 DraftKings points in six consecutive games and is a terrific situation to continue this streak this Sunday. Visiting the Jaguars, the Cowboys carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate (26.5 points) and are 5-point favorites. When playing behind an implied team total of 25 points or higher over the last two seasons, Elliot is contributing 17.2 DraftKings points per game (24 games).
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen, LAC vs. TEN ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Particularly on DraftKings, where players are rewarded a full point per reception, Allen is underpriced. Even with Mike Williams back this past week, Allen racked up 14 targets in the win over the Dolphins. He has now seen 14 targets in back-to-back starts and has been targeted on 23% of his routes this season, including 10 red zone targets, which is very encouraging considering Allen has only played in six games this year. This Titans defense he is facing has struggled recently, allowing the second-most yards per pass over the last three weeks (8.5) and Allen is an excellent combination of safety and upside in this plus spot.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. DET ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Wilson is arguably the best value at receiver this weekend and is a must if rostering White. With White starting at quarterback the last three weeks, Wilson has led the Jets with a 23.6% target share, including six red zone targets and four targets over 20 yards. He is producing 22.5 DraftKings points per game during this stretch and should flourish against this soft Lions defense that is yielding the second-most receptions (189) and second-most yards to receivers (2,582 yards).
Treylon Burks, TEN vs. LAC ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Burks missed last week with a concussion and if he is able to return to this Sunday, he will be an outstanding target at these low price points. This season, Burks has operated as the Titans’ clear No.1 receiver when healthy, gaining a target on 25% of his routes, including nine targets greater than 20 yards and three red zone targets in only eight games. In this matchup with the Chargers that presents the third-highest total on the slate (46 points), Burks has a ceiling near 20 fantasy points.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce, KC vs. HOU ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
In a prime matchup with the Texans, who are giving up the seventh-most yards per pass (7.1) and are the second-worst-graded defense on PFF, having exposure to Kelce is a must this week. He is leading Kansas City in target share this season (24%) and leads the NFL in red zone targets (28), which is notably six more than Justin Jefferson, who ranks second in the stat. The Chiefs’ implied team total is the highest on the slate this Sunday (31.5 points) and Kelce is averaging 22 DraftKings points per game when playing behind an implied team total of 30 points or higher for his career (28 games).
Darren Waller, LV vs. NE ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
Assuming Waller (hamstring) is activated off IR and available this Sunday, he will have to be considered at these season-low price tags. This season, Waller has been targeted on 17% of his routes, including seven red zone targets in only five games. While the Patriots have given up the eighth-fewest yards per pass (6.1), they are on a short week after playing in Arizona on Monday night and this game’s total is the fourth highest on the slate (44.5 points). Waller is averaging 13 DraftKings points per game in totals of at least 45 points over the last two seasons (17 games) and is a worthwhile gamble with tight end lacking appealing cheap options this week.
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