NBA DFS Leverage Picks: LeBron James Valuable with Westbrook Out

Wednesday night presents a 10-game slate, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how to handle the high- and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Wednesday, Oct. 26

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays

High-End Tier

In a marquee matchup against the Nets, Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected to be the most-owned stud on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s ownership projections. Similar to last night with a highly owned Luka Doncic, holding strong and eating the chalk with Antetokounmpo is the best strategy for a plethora of reasons: He will be at home and this is a gorgeous matchup, with Brooklyn ranking dead last in defensive efficiency.

This game’s total is the second highest on the slate (232.5 points), and Antetokounmpo averages 63.2 DraftKings points per game in home totals of 230 or more (11 games). Also, Khris Middleton (wrist) remains unavailable for the Bucks, and ever since he got injured during the playoffs last spring, Antetokounmpo has generated 62.4 DraftKings points per game on a massive 38.6% usage rate. With the highest ceiling of any player in action tonight by nearly 10 points, he sits atop Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool with the highest boom score on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Another stud to prioritize is Lebron James. The Lakers are looking to avoid an embarrassing 0-4 start to their season tonight, and they are expected to be without Russell Westbrook (doubtful, hamstring), which naturally leads to an even larger workload than usual for James. His usage and assist rates have increased 3 and 5.9 percentage points, respectively, in 734 minutes with Westbrook off the floor since the start of last season, resulting in 1.56 DraftKings points per minute for James.

He is going against a Nuggets defense that ranks second-to-last in efficiency, and this game’s total is the sixth largest on the board (229 points). James is rating as a strong leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, meaning his projected ownership is too low relative to his huge ceiling.

Lastly, Donovan Mitchell is one of the best high-end leverage targets on the board tonight, with Stokastic projecting modest ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Darius Garland (eye) will remain sidelined, and ever since he got injured in the season opener, Mitchell has three consecutive efforts over 50 DraftKings points.

With a 38.2% usage rate – which ranks second to only Doncic – Mitchell has averaged 1.5 DraftKings points per minute this season. He brings a top-seven ceiling tonight in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, going against a Magic defense that ranks 22nd in efficiency.

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Value Tier

Patrick Beverley is projected to be one of the 10 most-rostered players on both DraftKings and FanDuel with Westbrook doubtful. While Beverley may gain a few extra minutes of playing time with Westbrook absent, he is an easy fade. Beverley is a defense-first player that has never seen large usage throughout his career, and Westbrook’s absence isn’t going to lead to some newfound workload.

Albeit a small sample of only 37 minutes, Beverley has only received a usage rate of 14.4% and scored 0.77 DraftKings points per minute with Westbrook off the court. A similarly priced Lonnie Walker, who is slated for much less ownership in Stokastic’s projections, is a better value to target from the Westbrook-less Lakers. Ranking third on the team in minutes per game with 32.5, Walker is guaranteed to see big minutes tonight and his usage has been at a solid 22.8% sans Westbrook. That has translated to 0.86 DraftKings points per minute.

K.J. Martin is also standing out as an appealing low-owned value play in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. Alperen Sengun (illness) and Bruno Fernando (knee) will miss their second straight game tonight, and Martin ranked third on the team in minutes with those two absent on Monday. He struggled with his shot, finishing with only 16.5 DraftKings points, but the playing time was very encouraging.

Martin should continue to see at least 30 minutes for tonight’s rematch with Utah, even if Jae’Sean Tate (questionable, ankle) is active, as Tate will likely be limited if he makes his season debut. Before Monday, Martin had averaged24 DraftKings points per game in his previous 10 with at least 25 minutes, and this is a great spot for him to bounce back, with the Jazz ranking third in pace and the total the third highest on the slate (232.5 points).

Situations to Monitor

Myles Turner (questionable, ankle) has missed the Pacers’ first four games, but he has a chance to suit up tonight. Domantas Sabonis is now with the Kings and this is a contract year for Turner, which should result in some huge fantasy outings this season.

He will be an outstanding GPP target against the Bulls if active tonight. Stokastic is projecting Turner for essentially no ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and this matchup with Chicago presents the highest total on the slate (234 points). Last season, Turner averaged 31.2 DraftKings points the six times he played in totals of at least 225 points, and he averaged 1.2 DraftKings points per minute with Sabonis off the court, thanks to a 21.8% usage rate. That was a 3-percentage-point jump from his season average.

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