Friday’s NBA slate should be a rollicking good time with suspensions and injuries opening up playing time for a host of understudies. Plus with a two-game West Coast nightcap, there should be ample late-swap opportunities.
The action for the nine-game main slate gets underway at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s look at the player pool to discuss the top NBA DFS building blocks today for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
NBA DFS Picks: Friday, Dec. 30
Core Play of the Day — Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks-Minnesota Timberwolves
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 64.6 | FanDuel: 62.32
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 27.7% | FanDuel: 37.2%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,900 | FanDuel: $11,900
Tonight we can look to Giannis Antetokounmpo as a core building block in his matchup against the Timberwolves. Khris Middleton (knee) remains out and Jrue Holiday (non-Covid illness/hamstring) is doubtful after missing Wednesday’s game. In that 119-113 overtime loss to the Bulls in Chicago, Antetokounmpo had the second best fantasy performance of his career while playing a hefty 42 minutes.
Over the last 10 games, the Timberwolves have allowed 115.8 points per 100 possessions, which is in the bottom-third of the league for defensive efficiency during this period. In his last five meetings with Rudy Gobert, Antetokounmpo has averaged 36.7 minutes and 21.7 field goal attempts with a 55.3% conversion rate. This has culminated in 29.7 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.9 combined blocks and steals for mid-50s fantasy points.
While there is merit to considering Nikola Jokic as a direct pivot, our Boom/Bust tool gives Giannis a significant edge of being in the optimal lineup on both DraftKings (18.5% vs. 7.5%) and FanDuel (26.9% vs. 4.5%). This is mostly a result of there being several excellent center options who outpace Jokic on a point per dollar basis.
Washington Wizards-Orlando Magic
Tonight the Wizards are heading into Orlando to face a very shorthanded Magic squad. After the kerfuffle between the Pistons and Magic in Detroit on Wednesday resulted in several players suspended for fighting and leaving the bench area. Moritz Wagner will be missing two games as the result of being the catalyst that started the melee. He will also be joined by Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., Mo Bamba, R.J. Hampton and Gary Harris who received one-game penalties. Jalen Suggs (ankle) is likely to be out through the upcoming holiday.
Franz Wagner, Bol Bol, Markelle Fultz, Paolo Banchero and Terrence Ross will all be appealing options tonight as each should play 30-plus minutes. Bol is center only on FanDuel, which will keep his popularity in check, though otherwise this group will be well represented among the top 10 most rostered players tonight.
Former Wizard Admiral Schofield, along with second round rookie Caleb Houston and undrafted rookie Kevon Harris are at the minimum salary on most DFS sites, though there will likely be better discount dandies from other teams that supersede their presence on most rosters.
Bradley Beal (hamstring) is questionable tonight after missing Wednesday’s game. If he remains out, that is a major boost for Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma who each see more offensive responsibilities. If Beal is in, this aforementioned duo slides down a notch, though they are still solid tournament targets.
If Beal sits, then there is a trickledown in minutes that would also result in Deni Avdija, Monte Morris and Rui Hachimura popping up in DFS lineups.
It is also worth noting that Detroit could be another place to look for point per dollar heroes as Killian Hayes is suspended for the next three games for punching Wagner on Wednesday and Hamidou Diallo is out with a one game suspension.
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Additional NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Picks Today – Sports Betting Opportunities
Collin Sexton is an intriguing option with an 11.5 over/under line on his points prop in his matchup against the Kings in Sacramento. In his three games back from a hamstring injury, he has played 16, 23 and 17 minutes off the bench. For the season, Sexton is averaging 14.3 points per game and 21.5 per 36 minutes. Something in the 20-to-24 minute range tonight is a reasonable expectation as his minutes should continue to increase as his hamstring improves.
The NBA Bet Pro projections have him scoring 14.2 points for a 62% probability of surpassing his threshold; at -115 on BetMGM, this works out to an expected ROI of 14%.
Did you know that you can get two free months of Stokastic Plus Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Portland Trail Blazers-Golden State Warriors
This matchup boasts a 232.5 total with Golden State hosting Portland tonight. In the month of December, no team is playing at a faster pace than the Warriors and both squads tend to eschew defense for most of the game.
Aside from Keon Johnson (non-Covid illness) and Justise Winslow (ankle), the Blazers have a mostly healthy rotation. Jusuf Nurkic has been dealing with a sore calf, but is expected to be available tonight.
Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Josh Hart are the best point per dollar options for Portland on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Nurkic is also in play, though the pivot position is loaded with other options.
The Warriors will be without Andrew Wiggins (adductor/non-Covid illness), Stephen Curry (shoulder) and JaMychal Green (leg/health and safety protocol). Klay Thompson will return after sitting out the last game which was the second leg of a back-to-back. Draymond Green and Donte DiVincenzo are also probable to play.
Wiggins has been out for a dozen games and Curry has missed seven, so the salaries for the rest of the players have mostly stabilized and are accounting for new responsibilities. Though the ‘Dubs have won three consecutive games, they are 2.5 point underdogs tonight.
Thompson, DiVincenzo and Jordan Poole are the most appealing options for Golden State. Though Poole has recorded only one 40 fantasy point game since Curry was sidelined the minutes and opportunities are there. Green should see mid-30s minutes and he is a core option on the two-game late slate and a fringe tournament option on the main slate.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today
Tonight should be a fun one with nine teams in action and five games tipping off in the first hour. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows at 4:45 p.m. ET on YouTube, courtesy of No House Advantage.
