NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays: Domantas Sabonis & More

Friday delivers a nine-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will use leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Friday, Dec. 30.

NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 30

High-End Tier

For very good reason, most DFS players are going to be prioritizing Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight, with him expected to be a top-five most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections. Both Jrue Holiday (doubtful, illness) and Khris Middleton (knee) will be unavailable for the second straight game, leaving Antetokounmpo in a godly role. With Holiday and Middleton inactive Wednesday against the Bulls, Antetokounmpo erupted for a season-best 84 DraftKings points and with those two starters off the floor this season, Antetokounmpo’s usage rises 1.4 percentage points to a whopping 41.2% and his assist rate skyrockets 15.7 percentage points a team-high 47.4%. With these upgrades, Antetokounmpo produces 1.73 DraftKings points per minute. He also gets an excellent matchup, hosting the Timberwolves, who rank sixth in pace. This game’s total is the third highest on the slate (229.5 points) and Antetokounmpo exposed this Minnesota club for a triple-double worth 63 DraftKings points back in November, even while playing alongside Holiday. This time around, Antetokounmpo’s ceiling is over 70 DraftKings points and the highest on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. With a rare situation with the Magic creating elite punt plays, paying up for Antetokounmpo is an easy task tonight and he needs to be one our core plays, regardless of the heavy ownership coming his way.

As for some lower owned studs to pair with Antetokounmpo, Domantas Sabonis is a tremendous option, with Stokastic only forecasting him to be around 15% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The center has been incredible, scoring 60.5 DraftKings points per game across his last six starts. Tonight, the Kings will host the Jazz and this contest’s total is the highest on the slate by nearly 10 points (240 points). No team in action tonight presents a higher implied team total than Sacramento (121.75 points) and Sabonis should flourish against this Jazz club that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and is allowing the most points in the paint in the league. Sabonis man has topped 50 DraftKings points in seven consecutive starts in totals of at least 235 points and brings a top-five ceiling on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

Opposite of Sabonis, Lauri Markkanen is a great GPP target, with Stokastic projecting him to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With a 24.2% usage rate, Markkanen is averaging 1.2 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has exceeded 50 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts and this Kings’ squad he is facing ranks 22nd in defensive in efficiency and seventh in pace. Markkanen is generating 47 DraftKings points per game in totals of 235 points or more this season (four games) and is rating positively as a leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

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Value Tier

After Tuesday’s altercation between the Magic and Pistons, eight Orlando players have suspended for tonight’s matchup with the Wizards. This leaves the Magic with the league-minimum eight healthy players. In this situation, Markelle Fultz, Bol Bol and Franz Wagner should all see huge minutes and are expected to be very chalky on both DraftKings and FanDuel as a result. Regardless of the ownership, all three are free squares and are chalk we need to be eating. If we look at the minutes these players have played without Wendell Carter Jr., Mo Wagner and Cole Anthony – who are the three most notable names suspended for the Magic – Fultz’s usage has jumped 6.8 percentage points to 28.5% and he has led the team with 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. Furthermore, Wagner’s usage has increased 2.3 percentage points to 27.2% and he has scored one DraftKings points per minute. Bol’s role hasn’t changed much in this situation, but he is averaging one DraftKings points per minute this season and is the only true center available for Orlando tonight. Over 35 minutes is inevitable for the freak athlete and when given a workload of at least 30 minutes this season, Bol has responded with 36 DraftKings points per game (14 games). A lower owned way to attack this depleted Magic squad is Admiral Schofield. Starter or not, Bol should approach 30 minutes tonight and destroy his near minimum price tags. With Carter, Wagner and Anthony off the floor this season, Schofield has averaged 0.8 DraftKings points per minute.

Many Pistons were also suspended after Tuesday’s incident, most notably Killian Hayes. The Pistons continue to be without Cade Cunningham (shin) and with he and Hayes unavailable, Alec Burks is an elite option, that can’t be ignored, regardless of the high ownership Stokastic is projecting him for on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With Cunningham out and Hayes getting ejected in the first half Tuesday, Burks started the second half at point and went off for 49.25 DraftKings points across 30 minutes. He should start tonight and has much higher upside than his salaries suggest against a Bulls’ defense that ranks 19th in defensive efficiency. While Burks won’t lead his team to many wins, he is a very selfish player that is perfect for fantasy and always has to be considered when expected to see high minutes. With Cunningham and Hayes off the floor this season, his usage has increased to 25.4% and he has supplied 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. Additionally, Burks has scored at least 30 DraftKings points in six of the last 10 games he has cracked the 25-minute mark.

Outside of the Magic and Pistons, an enticing punt to roll the dice on in GPPs that is expected to come with essentially no ownership is Willy Hernangomez. Larry Nance Jr. (neck) is doubtful tonight and with him missing, Hernangomez will act as Jonas Valanciunas’ direct backup. Hernangomez scores a strong 1.2 DraftKings points per minute this season and just recently on December 22nd with Nance sidelined, Hernangomez posted 33.25 DraftKings points in 22 minutes of work, both of which set new season highs for the center. The reason for the season high in playing time was due to Valanciunas getting into foul trouble, which is certainly a possible situation tonight against the 76ers. He is always prone to foul trouble and matching up with Joel Embiid is a nightmare for any center that more often than not translates into foul trouble, which is evident with Embiid ranking fourth in the league in free throws attempted this season. While obviously a volatile situation, Hernangomez could find himself in the 20-25-minute range if Valanciunas gets into foul trouble tonight, which would give him an excellent chance to destroy his near minimum salaries. For the last 10 occasions Hernangomez has seen over 20 minutes, he is averaging 30 DraftKings points per game.

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Situations to Monitor

Marvin Bagley (illness) is questionable tonight, and if he remains sidelined, Jalen Duren would be a great value, that likely will get slept on with a plethora of other cheap plays available tonight. With Bagley missing for the last two, Duren has provided 37.3 DraftKings points in 33 regulation minutes per game.

Update: Bagley is available tonight.

Another situation to keep an eye on that most DFS players should forget about tonight is Kyle Anderson (back) being questionable for the Timberwolves. If Anderson misses his sixth straight, the door would open for Naz Reid to see elevated minutes, giving him a great ceiling relative to his affordable salaries. In these last five sans Anderson, Reid is averaging 32.3 DraftKings points per game, including two showings over 40 DraftKings points.

Lastly, the Nuggets are a club to monitor, with Jamal Murray (injury management), Bruce Brown (ankle) and Aaron Gordon (shoulder) questionable. Murray missed their last game for rest purposes given it was the second night of a back-to-back and should be available tonight, while Brown and Gordon are dealing with injuries and have a real chance to sit. Specifically, if the latter sits, Nikola Jokic would see a boost and be a stud to some have some exposure to, that should be very low owned with Antetokounmpo gaining all the attention tonight and Denver in a tough spot against the Heat. Miami is a top-10 defense and a bottom-10 team in pace, but the Nuggets will be back at home tonight and Jokic is simply matchup proof on his home floor, scoring a whopping 63.9 DraftKings points per game in Denver this season, which is 10.7 DraftKings points per game more than when he is on the road. Furthermore, Gordon being off the floor this season has resulted in Jokic’s usage rising 2.5 percentage points to a team-high 31.9%, lifting the two-time MVP to 1.7 DraftKings points per minute. This game presents a small spread of only 4.5 points in favor of Denver and when competing in a spread under five points at home this season, Jokic is contributing 62 DraftKings points per game (four games).

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