We’re back up to nine games for Wednesday’s slate of games and there are a lot of intriguing NBA DFS picks. We already have news on some absences that will open up some obvious and exceedingly popular value plays. We also have another key Bradley Beal game-time decision that could greatly impact Washington’s game against Orlando and I’ll explain why below. There’s a whole lot to hit on so let’s dig into everything worth discussion in the Jan. 8 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.
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Also, watch today’s NBA Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Sal Vetri.
A Potential NBA DFS Barn Burner in Atlanta
Houston faces Atlanta in a game with a 237-point combined total. And, even when accounting for the James Harden strip club corollary, it’s hard to not want a lot of Harden tonight. Russell Westbrook will sit the game out on the front half off a back-to-back. That turns Harden into 1.9 fantasy-point-per-minute player with 47% usage and a 47% assist rate. There is not any conceivable way he truly fails tonight despite his stupidly high price. The same goes for Clint Capela, albeit to a lesser extent, with 1.2 fantasy points per minute and a boost to a 25% rebound rate. Eric Gordon will also see more work but he’s questionably reliable. I’d still consider him a more interesting value play than some guys we’ll discuss coming up.
Atlanta also should be interesting in this pace-up spot. Trae Young has been over 50.25 fantasy points in eight out of his last nine games and it’s hard to see him falling apart against Houston. Kevin Huerter has also pushed his game to another level with over 38 fantasy points in his last four games. John Collins had three down games in a row but the matchup will offer him solid upside at his price as well. There’s room for a lot of production with Atlanta and the ownership likely won’t be there.
Noteworthy Absences Creating Questionable NBA DFS Chalk
Will Barton is out for Denver on a personal absence. As a result, Michael Porter Jr should be a top-owned play of the day against Dallas. Porter Jr. has been unsustainably efficient with his 22.5% usage thus far this year, shooting 54% from the floor. He also has 1.1 fantasy points per minute in court time without Barton. It’s possible that Porter can get going with how good he is and a reasonable price point, but I’d be reluctant to lock him in as chalk.
Porter is an exciting young player who’s looked awesome thus far. But in a potential move to the starting lineup, there is some risk that he loses usage to the regular group. He had just 19% usage starting in his one game this year for Gary Harris and the margins for him to hit tournament value feel a bit tight.
I might be more inclined for Nikola Jokic, who boosts his usage to 27% without Barton on the court. Dallas has been much weaker against scorers in the paint since Kristaps Porzingis went out and Jokic is coming off of a 72.5-fantasy-point explosion with 47 real points against Atlanta. Jamal Murray also sees a boost to 27% usage with 1.1 fantasy points per minute when Barton is off the court. It may be more logical to go to these guys or even a Monte Morris who’ll see more usage in the second unit without Porter (assuming Porter gets the start).
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Josh Hart also projects to see more minutes with Jrue Holiday out. Hart saw 27 minutes against Utah last game without Holiday, including a three-minute stint to start the game that was limited by foul trouble. He should land in the low 30s of minutes without the foul trouble but this is still not a fantastic spot. I don’t mind Hart with his ability to add rebounds and peripherals but his low 16.2% usage doesn’t portend the best as a chalk play.
Much like Denver’s situation, it may be more likely to go a priced-up Brandon Ingram or Lonzo Ball with the benefit they get from no Holiday. Ingram averages 1.33 fantasy points per minute without Holiday with 31% usage. Ball saw 37 minutes without Holiday last game and has pushed his involvement and three-point shooting upwards lately. It’s not an awful Chicago defense so the guys with the more stable roles feel like smarter plays for tournaments.
Orlando Gets The Lucrative Washington Spot At Home
Bradley Beal is a game-time decision after he went through shootaround. But the Washington value has mostly evaporated with Jordan McRae and Ish Smith at prices that would be tough to trust with Beal in the lineup. On the plus side, Beal’s return would likely open more scoring upside with teams generally scoring less since Beal went out. Teams have averaged 104 points against Washington in the last four games without Beal, down from 120.1 allowed on the year. Beal’s 118 defensive rating swapped for a slightly better defender helps and the pace is also down a bit for Washington without him. If Beal misses again, I’d be willing to go back to McRae, Smith and Isaiah Thomas in lineups while I’d have fewer Magic players on the other side.
Nikola Vucevic is priced up for the matchup, as are most of the Magic. Vucevic still looks most appealing to me in terms of raw NBA DFS points. He’s over 41 fantasy points in his last seven games. Evan Fournier has been down recently with his last five games under 30 fantasy points. The usage flowed towards Markelle Fultz with 20 shot attempts for him last game but Fournier and Aaron Gordon both have decent potential in this matchup too. It’s possible none of these guys on the wing achieve their potential thanks to how many ways you can dice the usage up when accounting for Terrence Ross and D.J. Augustin’s minutes off the bench as well. Gordon’s rebounding ability may give him the tiebreaker amongst all of the non-Vucevic pieces.
Utah May Give The Knicks Another Whooping
Julius Randle will be out for personal reasons on the back half of a back-to-back at Utah. One would think that leads to potentially big minutes for a value-priced Bobby Portis. The matchup isn’t great against Utah’s low 102 pace and solid 104 defensive rating but Portis is a steady 1.0 fantasy-point-per-minute player without Randle. Marcus Morris missed yesterday’s game but he would also be interesting if he makes it into the lineup. Reggie Bullock started for him yesterday and didn’t offer much with just 13% usage. He could see more looks but it might be more logical to go to a guy like R.J. Barrett who’s had 29% usage without Randle so far this year. I’d likely go Portis’s way first and foremost because of his low price. Despite the tough matchup, there’s room for someone to meaningfully exceed value with how ball dominant Randle has been this year.
Utah’s side also looks good other despite the somewhat obvious blowout risk. I’d favor a return to Bojan Bogdanovic after he had 35 real points without a single other stat as a chalk play against New Orleans. His price still works even though he’s less of an obvious value. Donovan Mitchell also has the ability to do more than he has in this situation. His price isn’t the most appealing though with a jump for this matchup so it could be flimsy. Ditto for Jordan Clarkson who’s seen steady run off the bench but hasn’t meaningfully excelled lately.
A Return To Kyle Lowry?
Fred VanVleet will be out an extended period of time and we saw Kyle Lowry put up 48 fantasy points in 38 minutes despite 7-for-23 shooting last night versus Portland. The matchup against Charlotte is a worse one with their lower pace and a road back-to-back but it seems like Lowry will have a ton of opportunity with much less ownership today. Serge Ibaka also gets a top center matchup in the league on similarly low ownership. He’s also in play despite his elevated price. Patrick McCaw saw the backup point guard time behind Lowry yesterday and he’s barely playable value as a result. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson saw less minutes than expected with Oshae Brissett stealing run in the fourth quarter. Hollis-Jefferson is fine again but it’s not impossible something like that happens again.
I also wouldn’t totally sleep on Chris Boucher off the bench. He had 29.75 fantasy points in 16 minutes yesterday and this is an even better matchup for big men. He could pick up a few extra minutes on the back-to-back. Charlotte as only a two-point underdog at home means it’s not likely Toronto runs away with this one but Boucher can get it done without blowout run as a pivot to the other NBA DFS value we’ve discussed.
That Milwaukee At Golden State Matchup Got Less Appealing
Last year, a late-night hammer of the Bucks visiting the Warriors would have been one of the most compelling situations on the board. This season, it’s hard to see how Milwaukee doesn’t obliterate them despite the road game. They’re a 13-point road favorite and the Warriors will get Draymond Green back but will be without D’Angelo Russell. The way they keep this game competitive is quality shooting from guys like Damion Lee, Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson and I’m not sure I’d have a ton. You could take a stab at Golden State playing this close and run it back with a very low-owned Giannis Antetokounmpo or a value-priced Eric Bledsoe. But it feels like an unlikely outcome with Golden State severely outgunned in this situation.
