Every week, it’s important to survey the DFS landscape and determine potential building blocks, which are the core plays that form the foundation of most lineups. The popular options rise to the top more often than not, but there also are overlooked plays at every position, usually only a couple of names down the rankings list. In this post, we’ll be making our best NFL DFS Week 10 picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Stokastic provides a variety of tools for all DFS sports that can help you sort through the large NFL feature slate player pool. These were utilized in coming up with the recommendations in this article and include, and they are far from limited to such offerings as the NFL DFS Top Stacks tool, player projections, the Boom/Bust tool and the Lineup Generator.
All tools are updated for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates each week. Additionally, multiple tools are also at your disposal for the sub-slates as well as the primetime “island games” which have turned into one of the most popular DFS offerings on DraftKings and FanDuel. If you’re in the market for more DFS tools, Take a look at the Stokastic Discounts and Coupon Code page as well as the Subscription page to see what packages best suit your needs.
This week the NFL adventure continues in Germany, with Indianapolis and New England playing in Frankfurt. Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Rams are on byes, which leaves us once again looking at a 10-game featured slate.
NFL DFS Week 10 Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel
Best NFL DFS Week 10 Picks and Building Blocks: Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow (Bengals-Texans): DraftKings ($6,800, 15.9% ownership), FanDuel ($8,200, 15.9% ownership)
By the time it is all said and done, Joe Burrow is likely to appear on close to 20% of all tournament rosters. That will have him as the most popular quarterback, so when taking that path, be sure to avoid some of the chalky options at other positions (like Tony Pollard and Bijan Robinson, who feel like traps for very different reasons).
Burrow is clearly back to full health after dealing with a calf strain for the majority of the preseason and for the first month of the actual counting games. He will also be without Tee Higgins, but that is a missing component that can be papered over with steady veteran Tyler Boyd and the now-healthy Irv Smith Jr. The former is a good stacking partner, the latter is only for those with a high risk tolerance.
In Week 8, Burrow shredded the 49ers in San Francisco for 283 passing yards and a trio of touchdowns while completing 87.5% of his passes. The next week he led the Bengals to a victory in Buffalo, rolling up 348 yards and two scores, with a 70.5% completion rate. As long as Ja’Marr Chase (back) is starting, Burrow is a strong option against the Texans.
Jared Goff (Lions-Chargers): DraftKings ($6,400, 7.4% ownership), FanDuel ($8,000, 6.4% ownership)
Oh no, Jared Goff is not in a dome this week, hold on while I clutch my pearls. Okay, let’s think this through. SoFi Stadium has a “fixed roof” that is see-through but a roof nonetheless. Yes, there are openings to the outside, but it is not exactly a carport like, say, T-Mobile Park, which features a retractable roof that doesn’t protect players from the elements all that well.
Looking at the forecast, we can see that game-time temperatures will be in the upper 70s, with no precipitation and very little wind. This is as close to a controlled climate as we are going to see without the game being in an actual dome. Goff was even with the Rams when they played the inaugural season in this stadium back in 2020.
Now that we have put that annoying trope aside, we can focus on the Detroit Lions no longer playing like the Motor City Kitties and the Los Angeles Chargers having a terrible defense that is in the bottom quarter of the league. Though the Bolts have not allowed an aerial score in their last two games, they faced Tyson Bagnet and Zach Wilson, so Goff is going to look a lot closer to Patrick Mahomes, production-wise, who had 424 yards and four scores, rather than a below-replacement level quarterback.
Goff has a career-best 68.3% completion rate so far this year, and while his 1.7% interception rate is a tick higher than his first two seasons with Detroit, it is still below his career mark of 2%. He is not going to add any fantasy points with his legs as he has just 13 yards on 18 carries, but he does have a pair of rushing scores. Running back David Montgomery should be returning, which means Goff will have his full complement of skill-position players all healthy at the same time for once.
Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown are not listed in the breakouts below, but they are strong stacking options to be paired with Goff, or as one-offs against a sketchy LA pass defense.
Best NFL DFS Week 10 Picks and Building Blocks: Running Backs
Joe Mixon (Bengals-Texans): DraftKings ($6,200, 27.3%), FanDuel ($7,700, 21.8%)
It looks like Joe Mixon is going to be a favorite running back in”cash games (H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.), which makes sense for his setup this week. Cincinnati is favored by nearly a touchdown against the visiting Houston Texans, and with Burrow back to full health, the pressure is off the running game.
The Texans have been solid against opposing running backs, with the 14th-ranked rushing DVOA on defense, but combo-backs like Travis Etienne Jr., Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard, Rachaad White and even Najee Harris have still been able to reward their fantasy supporters with above-average receiving performances. Mixon has at least three receptions in the last four games, and he has cleared that milestone in six of his eight appearances. Anything less than 100 yards and a touchdown should be considered a disappointment for Mixon.
Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars-49ers): DraftKings ($7,100, 15.7%), FanDuel ($8,400, 13.4%)
Superficial glances at Etienne’s matchup seem to have gamers heading in other directions this week. That means he slides in as a solid contrarian option for tournaments. San Francisco’s defense has dropped to 25th in the rushing DVOA rankings, which is a big reason the 49ers stumbled into their bye on a three-game losing streak. They allowed Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt 158 combined yards and a touchdown, Cam Akers and Alexander Mattison got them for 103 yards, then Joe Mixon hung 110 and a touchdown during Cincinnati’s Week 8 romp.
Etienne is on pace for just over 1,800 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns. Like the 49ers, the Jaguars are coming off a bye and should be raring to go in this matchup. The second-year back has either scored or topped 100-plus yards in seven of eight games, including a trio of multi-touchdown efforts.
Best NFL DFS Week 10 Picks and Building Blocks: Wide Receivers
Seattle Wide Receivers vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders shipped off two defenders at the trade deadline. The secondary was already dreadful before the pass rush got worse. Currently, Washington has the third-worst passing defense DVOA, but they are still hanging on to a decent run defense in the metric. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba are being highlighted as a group for a couple of reasons. First, can we trust coach Pete Carroll to realize that he does in fact not have to control the running game to beat the Commanders? Second, with Geno Smith struggling compared to his magical campaign last year, it is hard to tell what the “pecking” order is in this offense, other than JSN sliding in behind his veteran counterparts.
Let salary constraints and personal preference be your guide when choosing among this trio, but do be sure to sprinkle them in across your player portfolio as defensive backs Benjamin St.-Juste and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. are ripe for the picking.
Cincinnati Wide Receivers vs. Houston Texans
Looking at the Stokastic Lineup Generator, and running a 20-lineup set using the QB+1 and a bringback, as well as the contrarian setting, we can see that Cincinnati stacks are still landing in this category. It is important to remember that crafting “contrarian” lineups does not mean one needs to donk off a position or two with a random sub-1% option, it just means that finding a few less popular plays that still rate out in the top five at their position or salary point is crucial.
On DraftKings, that is being accomplished by using Hockenson, who is detailed below, well above the field, with Trenton Irwin as the discount dandy from the Bengals. Irwin is projected to be on only 15% of all tournament lineups as of the 1:45 p.m. ET Stokastic projections. The main differentiators within this portfolio are only two lineups with Pollard, three with St. Brown.
Further isolating things down to just the eight Burrow lineups, we can see that while Irwin is on five of the rosters, there is still plenty of differentiation from the field, who is likely to have Chase as the main partner with Burrow. Yes, he is one of the top three receivers in the game right now, but he has a sore back. If he does not score multiple touchdowns, there is a good chance that Irwin or Boyd, plus the upgrade from Chase and a punt, will be the higher-scoring pair.
The Lineup Generator is a tool that combines all of the other proprietary Stokastic NFL DFS offerings such as player projections, pOWN%, boom/bust (aka leverage and ceiling) as well as using similar foundational functionality as the Stokastic Simulations.
On FanDuel, we can see that it is Chase who is winning out over Irwin. Christian McCaffrey enters the mix as a spendy and unexpected option in the 20-lineup set. The runback for Houston is now Devin Singletary and not one of the pass-catchers.
Next, when we isolate the eight Burrow lineups created for the blue site, we can see that Chase is actually on only half of the Burrow stacks, with Irwin matching that figure. McCaffrey is still the key differentiator at the high end, though nobody else is disproportionately represented across the eight rosters.
Sign up for the Lineup Generator here for just $14.95 per week for the stand-alone package.
Premium Members can check out all the other wide receiver options here.
Best NFL DFS Week 10 Picks and Building Blocks: Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson (Vikings-Saints): DraftKings ($5,000, 18.3%), FanDuel ($6,600, 10.6%)
Watch the inactive report as T.J. Hockenson has been limited all week in practice after hurting his ribs last week. The expectation is that he will be suiting up, and if he is, expect a standard workload and plenty of looks from his new quarterback Josh Dobbs. Last weekend Hockenson saw 12 targets, bringing in seven for 69 yards — only to see his salary drop on both DraftKings ($200) and FanDuel ($100). There is also a slight chance that Justin Jefferson returns this week, which will help open things up for the passing game. Let others worry about the injury tag and roll with Hockenson in tournaments.
Dalton Schultz (Texans-Bengals): DraftKings ($4,900, 13.6%), FanDuel ($6,100, 12.6%)
This is a nice price point for Dalton Schultz on DraftKings, where he also merits consideration in the flex slot. FanDuel has him with an appropriate salary, especially considering he has reached paydirt in four of the last five games. It looks like there could be some point put on the board in this matchup and anything that keeps rookie C.J. Stroud chucking the ball is a good thing. Wide receiver Nico Collins is out, but Robert Woods (foot) is expected back. Stroud has ample pass-catchers available, but he does seem to favor Schultz in the red zone.
Best NFL DFS Week 10 Picks and Building Blocks: Defense/Special Teams
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants: DraftKings ($4,400, 11.7%), FanDuel ($5,200, 13.2%)
Dallas checks in as the bucks-deluxe option in a matchup against third-string quarterback Danny Tommy DeVito. The Giants have allowed 49 sacks through nine games, including six last week at the hands of the Raiders. While the Cowboys have a pedestrian 21 sacks in their eight outings, they had seven in Week 1, when they shut out the Giants on the road, 40-0.
That was against a healthy offense and line, which is pretty much the exact opposite scenario for this week when the G-Men are in Dallas and rolling out backups at pretty much every position other than running back. Enjoy!
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns: DraftKings ($4,000, 9.3%), FanDuel ($4,600, 10.5%)
Baltimore offers a slight discount over Dallas. The Ravens lead the league with 35 sacks and get to face a struggling Cleveland offense. Even though the Browns would prefer to run the ball, they have still allowed three sacks per game this season. This is likely to be a low-scoring game with two elite defenses taking the field, though Lamar Jackson and company should at least be able to put together a couple of sustained drives, which should be enough to win the AFC North rock fight. If the Ravens can somehow force Cleveland to throw the ball, that is when the fantasy points could arrive in bunches.
As you get your best NFL DFS Week 10 picks and lineups prepped on DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic can help. We have more free DFS content on the NFL DFS homepage, premium DFS software including NFL Sims and the Lineup Generator, and the best live shows and videos from your favorite analysts on our YouTube channel.
You can also talk NFL DFS picks and strategy with the team and the rest of our sharp community on the Stokastic Discord!
