In this article, we will take a journey through the NFL Sims process. I’ll be sharing my initial reactions and thoughts as we dive into the world of NFL DFS Week 10 lineup building on DraftKings with the help of our trusty Contest Simulations Tool.
Keep in mind that my perspectives may evolve as the weekend progresses, but this article offers a unique peek into how I interpret the results in the Sims, a valuable skill for your DFS journey.
NFL DFS Week 10 – DraftKings NFL Sims Preview
Before we get into the Week 10 NFL DFS analysis, here is a short breakdown of each of the components of the Stokastic NFL Sims tool.
Contest Generator: An industry first! Create a pool of lineups that reflects projected ownership for a given slate. See which players, lineups, and stacks are likely to comprise the field (available only for NFL & NBA).
Pre-Contest Simulator: Take into account both what is happening on the field and with competing lineups. Simulations pit lineups against each and derive simulated profitability for each, resulting in a superior ranking methodology to any other tool.
Post-Contest Simulator: Stop tweaking your process based on yesterday’s results–a sample size of one is meaningless. Instead, leverage simulations to review ROI for DraftKings contests at the individual lineup, user and player level.
Ownership Analysis: Starting with the Week 10 Contest Pool
When starting up the NFL DFS Sims process, we start by building a contest pool with our Contest Generator to see who the chalkiest plays of Week 10 are. This week there is one name that stands above the rest and 4 others that are in the next tier that we need to think about.
Trey McBride stands above the field with a 26.7% Pool Exposure, and he is the second highest in our classic ownership at 23.4%. McBride came out on fire with 25.5 DK points in Week 8 in his first game without Zach Ertz. Unfortunately, he fizzled a bit last week with only 5.2 points, but that was with Clayton Tune acting as his quarterback.
This week the Cardinals get Kyler Murray back. Sure, Murray might be a bit rusty, but we’ve seen the Cardinals pepper their tight ends all season. While Murray may not operate in this same manner completely McBride feels a bit different than Douglas last week and seems like good cheap chalk and a way to save some money in your lineup.
The next two highest-owned players are both Bengals Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon. Burrow has looked more like his old self the last two weeks with wins over the Bills and 49ers where he put up over 25 fantasy points in both, so it feels like the Bengals offense can be trusted once again. Tee Higgins is expected to miss this game as well, so all signs point to condensed touches. It’s interesting to see Mixon as chalk as he has come in under the field all year, but after two weeks of scoring TDs folks might finally be on him, although I have my doubts.
I think Chase looks good and I am going to assume that Mixon comes in under what we are projecting. I may change that assumption if I see him getting touted across the industry, but if he is going to be under-owned and the Bengals offense looks good, I think both of these Bengals make great plays. I don’t think they are necessarily great to play together, but I don’t see it being a major issue as well. I just won’t want to do it on a lot of teams if the Sims want to play both together a lot.Â
T.J. Hockenson and DeAndre Hopkins round out the top tier of high-owned players. I hate to say that I like all the chalk this week at first glance, but Hockenson looks good as well. He has been priced down to $5000 and he could come in lower than we project as he still has a Q tag as of Friday. Hopkins might be the chalk from this tier that I am most skeptical about. But let’s take a look and see what the Sims say.Â
Stacks: Finding the Winning DraftKings NFL DFS Combos
At the time of this article, it’s not the Bengals that the Sims like to stack, but I think that might change a bit over the weekend once Tee Higgins is officially ruled out. That said Burrow is very chalky for a quarterback as well which might be the determining factor to go away from the Bengals as your primary stack.
Here is how the Bengals stack up in the Sims:
It sees Mixon as good chalk as expected. In addition to being good value, Mixon represents direct leverage to the high ownership that Chase and Burrow currently have. This is why I think I will limit my lineups with both Mixon and Chase. Due to their prices, it will be hard for both to pay off their price and ownership. If Chase fails, there is a high probability that Mixon will be a big benefactor in that. This 44% exposure to Mixon feels completely reasonable to me. In my top 150 lineups in the NFL Sims, it has 8 of Mixon paired with Chase. That doesn’t feel too crazy, but I might unfavorite a few of those and replace them with lineups with just Mixon.
So which stacks do the Sims like? Unlike last week’s favorite of Derek Carr, this week’s quarterbacks at the top feel a lot more comfortable.
Dak Prescott leads the way at $6,700 against the struggling Giants. After back-to-back slate-winning weeks, he could see his ownership get steamed even more than the 11% we are currently projecting. The Week 10 Sims are partially high on Prescott because they also like CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, and Jake Ferguson. Given that the Cowboys have the highest team total on the slate this isn’t surprising at all.
The one problem I see with Dallas stacks is they are 17-point favorites and could take their foot off the pedal as the game goes on. If you want to heavily stack this game (3+ flex players) you might need to consider a Giants player as a runback and there aren’t many good ones. The Sims seem to like some of the Dak + the three players mentioned above, but I would be careful not to go overboard with that combo. Deleting a few of these lineups might be a way to lessen your Cowboys exposure.
Geno Smith and Jared Goff round out the other quarterbacks that the Sims are most interested in. Both carry some ownership but aren’t too heavily owned and both have shown that they have the upside to win you a week partially because of their skills, partially because of their offensive weapons, and partially because of the systems they are in. That’s a great situation to be in because they have a lot of ways to get to a breakout game. I prefer Smith slightly, but if either of these quarterbacks is the start of my stack, I am perfectly happy going that route.
Tying it All Together: A Winning NFL DFS Week 10 Lineup Build
In conclusion, my fourth-best lineup embodies a great strategy by pulling all these pieces together.
Here’s an overview of the team we picked out:
We start with Geno Smith, an average-owned quarterback that the Sims likes. We pair him with his difference-making pass catcher D.K. Metcalf, which could set us up for success right off the bat.
Next, we add Joe Mixon who provides us some leverage off Chase and Burrow. We go double tight end but not with cheap tight ends but two tight ends that can have big games in T.J. Hockenson and Trey McBride. Those salary savings at tight end allow us to go up and get expensive difference-makers like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins.
Finally, the Giants D/ST may be uncomfortable, but they are not going to be very popular because of how many people are going to be playing Cowboys players. If they manage a pick 6 early or fumble recovery late and the Cowboys don’t have a crazy game their $2,100 salary might be what you need to take down a big tournament.
This format should provide insights into how I approach the Sims when crafting lineups. Hopefully, this helps to provide some more information on how I think through the tool each week.
Let me know if you have any additional ideas going forward! Best of luck on your NFL DFS Week 10 adventures.
