College football Week 3 continues with a 14-game Saturday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 3 DFS picks and projections for Saturday, Sept. 16.
CFB Week 3 DFS Picks and Projections | Saturday
Quarterback
Tyler Buchner ($7,100): Alabama decided to make the move from Jalen Milroe to Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner under center this week. Alabama enters this week as a 34-point favorite over USF in a game with a 61 total. Buchner brings decent efficiency with a 56.9% career completion percentage for 7.9 yards per attempt. More importantly, he averages 5.6 yards per carry on the ground. Even if Milroe still mixes in, this matchup gives Buchner an elite floor. The offense also has problems, which could keep starters in longer than other teams in the same situations.
Carson Beck ($8,400): Georgia demolished Tennessee-Martin and Ball State to start the year. They now draw South Carolina as 27.5-point favorites. New starter Carson Beck has played excellent football with a 72.1% completion percentage for 9.5 yards per attempt. Georgia also hasn’t been at full strength once this year. In this matchup, South Carolina should push Georgia just enough where the Bulldogs have to try for the most of the game. Largely an unknown at this point, Beck’s upside keeps him in play as a GPP option.
Jayden Daniels ($8,600): LSU enters this game as a 9.5-point favorite over Mississippi State in a game with a 54 total. Jayden Daniels has played excellent football so far, averaging over 300 yards per game passing. Daniels also possesses the elite mobility, rushing for over 700 yards in back to back seasons in 2021 and 2022. Mississippi State rebuilt their secondary and just allowed 340 passing yards to Arizona last week.
Riley Leonard ($6,700):Â A 17-point favorite over Northwestern, Duke comes in a 33-point implied team total. Despite smashing Clemson and Lafayette so far, Duke still passes 53% of the time, while ranking 48th in pace. Northwestern provides a more than willing dance partner behind their 35th ranked pace and horrific defense. Leonard remains one of the most efficient signal callers in the ACC with a 63.3% career completion percentage for 7.3 yards per attempt. He also has excellent mobility, evidenced by his 699 rushing yards and 13 scores last year.
Running Back
Damien Martinez ($6,400): Oregon State enters this game as a 24.5 point favorite over San Diego State in a game with a 48 point total. The Aztecs allow 5.0 yards per carry to opposing offenses and this will be the top rushing attack they’ve faced this year. Damien Martinez carried 19 times in the opener before Oregon State didn’t try against their FCS opponent in Week 2. He averages 124.5 rushing yards per game so far.
Ja’Quinden Jackson ($6,700): Early projections have Utah somewhere around a 35-point favorite over FCS opponent Weber State. Micah Bernard is out for the year, opening additional opportunities for Ja’Quinden Jackson and Jaylon Glover. Last week, Jackson carried 19 times and handled a pair of targets. While he isn’t likely to see that much opportunity here, his efficiency makes him a worthwhile opponent.
Makhi Hughes ($4,600): A 12 point favorite over Southern Miss in a game with a 48.5-point total, Tulane provides an interesting running back value in Makhi Hughes. He carried 22 times with one target last week. Southern Miss is allowing over eight yards per carry.
Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s’ college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!
Wide Receiver
Derwin Burgess ($5,900): Georgia State runs full air raid behind a 66% pass rate. They’re 20 point underdogs to Wisconsin, but the Badgers have allowed Buffalo and Washington State to move the ball. Burgess has 18 targets through two games. Khaleb Hood ($5,300), Jjay Mcafee ($3,400), and Anthony Queeley ($4,800) are all viable as well.
Emeka Egbuka ($7,800): A strong game environment, Ohio State enters this matchup against Western Kentucky as a 30-point favorite in a game with a 65 total. Many will be drawn to Marvin Harrison Jr. ($9,100) for good reason, but don’t sleep on Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka has 12 targets so far this year and narrowly trailed Harrison last year. He also handles the occasional carry in the run game.
Malachi Corley ($4,700): On the other side of the Ohio State game, Malachi Corley expects to return from injury. Last year, he accounted for 101 receptions 1,295 yards and 11 scores. He is simply too cheap regardless of opponent.
