Sunday Night Football brings together a couple of long-time rivals as the Dallas Cowboys travel to San Francisco, to face the currently undefeated 49ers. This nightcap closes out the Week 5 Sunday action, with one last matchup covered by our Stokastic NFL DFS picks series. In this issue, we’ll be providing our Cowboys-49ers DFS picks for the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Sunday Night slate, so check out these Cowboys-49ers DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Cowboys-49ers DFS Picks
Dallas Cowboys: 20.75 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Dak Prescott barely sliding into the top 25 for the full Week 5 quarterback pool and that is with four teams on a bye this week. Of course that is not quite as much of an indictment on Prescott as it is a feather in the cap of the San Francisco defense which boasts the 6th best passing DVOA, while allowing the second fewest yards per pass on the season.
The 49ers have allowed only four aerial touchdowns this season, with Matthew Stafford (307) being the only opposing signal-caller who has thrown for more than 270 yards. Prescott himself has yet to surpass that milestone himself in four tries and he has thrown just four touchdowns. Setting aside the 40-0 drubbing of the Giants, in New York, Prescott has averaged 37.3 attempts per game with a nice 69.4% completion rate, with all four touchdowns and one interception.
It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys look to approach the ‘Niners defense tonight, though considering no opposing running back has had more than 52 rushing yards against them, Dallas is likely to end up passing above expectations in this matchup.
Running Back
Continuing the thought from the preceding paragraph, looking back through 2022 regular and postseason game logs, just seven running backs rushed for more than 52 yards against San Francisco. This group together averaged just 59.6 yards, with Josh Jacobs leading the pack with 39 rushing yards in Week 17 on 17 carries. In the NFC Divisional Round last year, Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott had 16 combined carries for just 48 yards.
Last week Pollard dipped from 86% of the snaps the game before, to a season low 53%, albeit in a 38-3 drubbing against the visiting Patriots. Pollard is third on the team with 17 targets, with three in each game and a season high eight in Week 2, which was a competitive game against the Jets. The DFS darling should continue to see two-thirds of the backfield opportunities on Sunday Night Football, but that may not be enough to justify his salary – unless of course he finds pay dirt.
Rico Dowdle looks to have the RB2 role nailed down, though he will cede third-down work to Deuce Vaughn. Hunter Luepke scored a touchdown to cap off the win last week, but until further notice, he is just the human victory cigar.
Looping back with one last thought, Dallas has been good about limiting Pollard once the games have been decided, in closer matchups, he should continue to get the rock and be active in all facets of the game – and that is a likely scenario tonight.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb is leading the team with 30 targets and he has at least six looks in each of the last three games. Four receivers have recorded 75-plus yards against the 49ers this season, though the outbursts came in two games; against the Rams and last week against Arizona. Lamb is the focal point of the passing game and in this matchup, arguably the entire offense, though that is the assessment the defense is likely to arrive at as well.
Brandin Cooks is a solid contributor and outside of missing Week 2 with a sprained MCL. The 30-year-old is a proverbial gamer and if he is active, we should expect him to be on the field for around 60% of the snaps and garnering a handful of targets. Michael Gallup has 13 targets over the last two weeks, which is the same as Lamb and two more than Cooks. That is a nice bounce-back from the four combined targets of the first two games and if the 49ers are rolling coverage to Lamb, Gallup is the likely beneficiary as a secondary option with his mid-field routes.
Jalen Tolbert does have nine targets on the season, which is three times what he had during his dismal rookie year. The third-round selection could be a bit of a late-bloomer, but he is cannon fodder at best, outside of the single-game slates. He is a punt play on DraftKings ($1,600), with the understanding that he may not get more than two targets. KaVontae Turpin is $200 less and in a similar boat, though he at least is assured of being active as the main punt returner and in the mix on kickoff returns with Vaugh and Luepke.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson has 25 targets, which is the second most on the team and bodes well if he can continue this track. Dalton Schultz was a solid DFS contributor in his last couple of seasons with Dallas and on many an island game. Peyton Hendershot (ankle) is out, so Luke Schoonmaker will be the main backup. Last week he had three of his five targets on the season, though that is likely a high-water mark. Ferguson is a core play on DraftKings ($5,000), though he falls back to the tournament-only pack on FanDuel ($8,500).
Defense/Special Teams
San Francisco is ceding just shy of two sacks per game, while Dallas has recorded 14 quarterback takedowns through the first four games. On the turnover front, the 49ers have lost one fumble, with no interceptions. The Cowboys have 10 takeaways, with seven interceptions and three fumble recoveries, ranking them second overall on the year.
San Francisco 49ers: 24.25 Points
Quarterback
For what it is worth, the Stokastic NFL DFS projections have young Brock Purdy just ahead of Daniel Jones and a tick behind Russell Wilson and Joshua Dobbs in the full Week 5 rankings on DraftKings, though Jones surpasses him and the gap widens with the other two when looking at FanDuel. However, we are only concerning ourselves with a couple of points and one fortuitous touchdown or an untimely turnover can easily swing these median outcomes once the chaos of an NFL game is underway.
Purdy has multiple touchdowns in three of the four games this season, when including his rushing score against the Cardinals last week. He has yet to throw an interception and has completed 72.3% of his passes while being among the top-three for QBR, yards per attempt and yards per completion. Mr. Irrelevant is really Mr. Efficiency.
Dallas has yet to allow any opposing quarterback to throw for more than 190 yards, but they have not exactly been seeing the cream of the crop with Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Joshua Dobbs and Mac Jones under center thus far. Superstar Trevon Diggs is out for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee, while linebackers Micah Parsons (knee) and Damone Clark (shoulder), along with safety Malik Hooker (shoulder) are dinged up heading into this game. Coach Sean McVay is a master at scheming open receivers, so it would not be a surprise if he goes for a knockout blow through the air in the early going tonight.
Running Back
Elijah Mitchell (knee) is out, so that likely means another insane workload for Christian McCaffrey, with rookie Jordan Mason giving him a break from time-to-time. Using last week as a proxy, we saw McCaffrey on the field for 85% of the snaps, with Mason getting 15%. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk had a season high 65%, though he should be in the 50%-to-60% as a default estimate most weeks. Juszczyk is of course in play for this island game, but keep in mind he has just three carries and one target this season. Something in the 1.5 opportunities is probably realistic for Sunday Night Football with a slight lean to the over.
McCaffrey is second on the team with 21 targets, getting at least five in three of the four games so far. he also has averaged 20 carries per game with 22 in the opener as the high and 18 in Week 3 as the low, so we are seeing some serious consistency here. Mason had three carries last week and on the season, he has six while Mitchell has 16, though 11 of those came in Week 3 in an easy victory over the Giants.
Wide Receiver
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk dominate the snap share as the 49ers run a fair amount of two-wideout sets. Jauan Jennings (shin) was not active last week, so keep tabs on his status tonight. He did get in a full practice on Friday, after being limited for the early part of the week.
Samuel was not targeted last week, which was a surprise, even though he was dinged up with a sore knee, though did get three carries for six yards. He did have a season high 12 targets in Week 3, however, that was a game where Aiyuk was out. It looks like Aiyuk may have the slight edge at this point in the season. Last Sunday, Aiyuk had six receptions for 148 yards and in the opener he had eight for 129 and a pair of touchdowns.
Ray-Ray McCloud III brought in both targets last week for 22 yards, while playing 13 offensive snaps as a replacement for Jennings. Rookie Ronnie Bell and veteran Willie Snead IV filled in the remained of the plays. If Jennings is a go, Snead will likely sit. Bell should be on the field for around 15 plays and he did get his first career touchdown on Thursday Night Football, against the Giants in Week 3.
Tight End
George Kittle was in on 95% of the snaps in Weeks 2 and 4, yet had a grand total of four combined targets in those games. During Week 3, when Aiyuk was out, the veteran tight end dipped down to an 83% snap share, yet had a season high nine targets. The Cowboys have yet to allow a touchdown to this position, with Hunter Henry (4 receptions, 51 yards), Tyler Conklin (5, 50) and Darren Waller (3, 36) finding limited success.
Kittle in tournaments, absolutely – core play, far from it. Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelly and probably Brayden Willis will see action, but it needs to be noted that NONE of them have a target through the first four games. Last year Dwelly (5), Tyler Kroft (5) and Woerner (2) barely got any looks with Kittle getting 86 of the 98 (87.8%) opportunities to the position, including playoffs.
Defense/Special Teams
Dallas has just one interception on the season and no fumbles, while San Francisco has five picks and nary a fumble. The 49ers are averaging just over two sacks per game, while the Cowboys have allowed only six this year, which is the fifth fewest in the league.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Cowboys-49ers DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cowboys-49ers
- Christian McCaffrey: It isn’t even close.
- Brock Purdy: Consolidates the passing touchdowns.
- Tony Pollard: Should get 20-plus touches.
- CeeDee Lamb: Unquestioned top-option, defenses are cognizant of this as well.
- Brandon Aiyuk: Looks to be the most healthy of the receivers and can score from anywhere on the field.
- Dak Prescott: We are counting on his arm, just four touchdowns on the year, though Dallas romped through the Giants (40-0) and Patriots (38-3), San Francisco is not going to roll over, so that should mean more volume. Success, well that is a different story.
- Jake Ferguson: Already a featured part of the passing game, impressive for a rookie.
- Brandon Aubrey: NFL rookie is a perfect 13 of 13 on field goal attempts, while missing only one of his 10 PATs. He was drafted in the third round out of Notre Dame by the Birmingham Stallions, where he was 32 for 37 (86.4%) from the field during his two seasons in the USFL, missing only two of 59 PATs.
- Jake Moody: Third-round rookie is perfect on nine field goal attempts and 14 PATs. Nailed one from 59 yards out last year with Michigan.
- Brandin Cooks: Salary savings over the other key 49ers lands him in the top 10.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cowboys-49ers
- Deebo Samuel: Dangerous ranking for a player with two 20-plus full-PPR performances. Needs to score to break-even at his salary on the main DFS sites.
- George Kittle: Similar to Samuel, he needs a touchdown as volume cannot be counted on and the team will likely need him to block a fair amount tonight.
- Michael Gallup: Likely to be the one receiver that the defense does not worry about, which makes him interesting if he can get and convert a few mid-range looks.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cowboys-49ers
- Luke Schoonmaker: DraftKings only, but at the $200 minimum, he facilitates an otherwise loaded roster.
- San Francisco D/ST: Dallas limits the fantasy goodness for opposing defenses, so the ‘Niners slide down to lottery land, with a thinned out secondary section seeing just three recommendations instead of the usual five.
- Dallas D/ST: If this game were in the Big-D, they would still only flip-flop with the San Francisco D/ST.
- Rico Dowdle: Should get half a dozen opportunities, but how successful can he be against a brick wall?
- Jordan Mason: Will be on the field for around a quarter of the snaps if his team can gain any sort of separation on the scoreboard, but high-value touches are pretty much non-existent for the rookie.
- Jauan Jennings: Keep an eye on his status, if he was 100% and not coming off a missed game, he would be ahead of the D/STs.
- Kyle Juszczyk: Skip on FanDuel, good for DraftKings at $400 for those building a couple dozen lineups.
- Deuce Vaughn: If the team is down a couple scores, he could see a handful of targets as the Pollard replacement. Dowdle is not exactly a slouch in the passing game, so neither is particularly enticing – but we leave no stone unturned for island games.
- KaVontae Turpin and Ray-Ray McCloud: Each could get a target or two, in addition to being the main return-men for their respective squads. McCloud is at the $200 minimum on DraftKings, so if Jennings is inactive again, move him up to the top of this section.
- Jalen Tolbert and Ronnie Bell: Bell would get the edge if Jennings is out, but otherwise these WR4s are dart throws at best.
- Willie Snead IV: Only if Jennings is out.
- Sean McKeon, Hunter Luepke, Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelly, Jalen Brooks, Peyton Hendershot, Tyrion Davis-Price and Brayden Willis: Most should be active, other than Hendershot who is dealing with an injury, though the collective over/under is 2.5 for this entire group.
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