There are only three MLB games tonight, but there is still plenty of money to be won. This slate has several good pitchers, along with solid but not great offenses. Smaller slates typically result in a more contrarian approach in GPPs than large slates because of the heavily concentrated ownership on the best plays.
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MLB DFS Advice: Guardians-White Sox | July 27
Game of the Day: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
This game has it all. Tanner Bibee is facing off against Dylan Cease, and they are projected to be two of the three most popular pitchers on the slate. The offenses do not project as well as most others, but they are still in a favorable park for hitting and they each still have respectable 4.3 implied run totals.
Starting with the pitching, Cease is $8,000 on DraftKings and enters the game with a 28% strikeout percentage and 3.95 xFIP. The strikeout percentage is second best on the slate, while the xFIP is third. He has a tough matchup, as Cleveland’s active roster has struck out a league-low 17.1% of the time against right-handed pitching this season and has a 104 wRC+. He has the second-highest top-2 pitcher percentage at 39% and about 42% projected ownership in the Top Pitchers Tool.
On the other side, Bibee has been impressive in his rookie season. He has struck out 24.6% of opposing hitters and has a 4.31 xFIP and 0.76 home runs allowed per nine innings. The White Sox active roster has just an 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year and has a 23.3% strikeout percentage that is the 11th highest in baseball. Bibee currently is third in top-2 pitcher percentage at 35% and first in top-2 value percentage at 39.9%. He is projected for about 50% ownership.
Neither offense is in an ideal spot, but they both offer leverage against popular pitchers on a short slate. While they may not succeed very often, they are powerful because when they do succeed they have a clear path to the top of the leaderboard since they immediately eliminate 40% to 50% of opposing lineups as a result of a popular pitcher failing.
The Guardians started the season off as one of the least productive offenses in the league, but they have turned things around as expected and now have a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Cease has been very good against hitters from both sides of the plate, so there are not any drastic splits to target. Jose Ramirez is the best hitter from Cleveland and is the clear top option, however. The Guardians’ 15.7% top stack percentage is the third highest on the slate, and they are tied for second in Stack Score in the Top Batters Tool. They are projected for about 16% aggregate ownership.
The White Sox are projected to be the second-lowest-owned team on the slate at only 10.6% aggregate ownership. Like Cease, Bibee has been good against hitters from either side of the plate, so there are no obvious weaknesses to target. Luis Robert is the best hitter on Chicago and is a strong option where affordable, while Eloy Jimenez and Jake Burger offer less expensive sources of power. The White Sox have a 13.4% chance of being the top-scoring stack, making them look like a strong contrarian stack at their current ownership.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Francisco Alvarez (NYM): $3,800 on DraftKings, $3,100 on FanDuel
Christopher Morel (CHC): $5,400 on DraftKings, $3,800 on FanDuel
Eloy Jimenez (CHW): $4,200 on DraftKings, $3,200 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
Francisco Alvarez: Alvarez’s matchup against Josiah Gray is not great, but there are no truly bad pitchers to target on this slate. Gray has limited right-handed hitters to a .149 xwISO and .323 xwOBA this year, but Alvarez is inexpensive at a position that does not offer much upside. He has produced a .318 xwOBA and .237 xISO in 181 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season. He also leads the Top Batters Tool with a 28.9% chance of hitting a home run tonight.
Christopher Morel: Morel does not carry the name value to justify a $5,400 salary, but he actually has the highest xISO on the Cubs against right-handed pitching this year at .213 in 183 plate appearances. He will face Miles Mikolas in extremely good hitting weather in St. Louis. Mikolas is a serviceable pitcher, but he has allowed a relatively high .170 xISO to righties this season. Morel is considerably less expensive on FanDuel and has outfield, second base and third base eligibility as well.
Eloy Jimenez: Jimenez has a tough matchup against Bibee, but most hitters on this slate have tough matchups. Jimenez has a .187 xISO in his 220 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year, so he offers an affordable source of power in a favorable park for hitters. It is also worth noting that Bibee’s most used secondary offering is his slider that he has thrown 41% of the time to right-handed hitters. Jimenez has shown the ability to hit right-handed sliders, producing a .329 xwOBA and .222 xISO in 120 plate appearances that have ended with the pitch since the start of last season.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Kodai Senga (NYM): $9,000 on DraftKings, $10,600 on FanDuel
Dylan Cease (CWS): $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
Tanner Bibee (CLE): $7,200 on DraftKings, $9,600 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Kodai Senga: Senga has the highest strikeout percentage on the slate at 29.7%. He has a strong 3.71 xFIP as well. Pitching conditions are tough tonight, as it will be around 90 degrees with the wind blowing out in New York, but all three games tonight are either in favorable parks for hitters or favorable hitting conditions, so it is not much of a factor. The Nationals’ 18.6% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season is the second lowest in baseball, but they also only have an 89 wRC+. Senga is projected for the most ownership on the slate at 68.8% on DraftKings and also has the highest top-2 pitcher percentage at 49.8%.
Dylan Cease and Tanner Bibee: Check the Game of the Day section above. Both pitchers have a full breakdown there.
