We have a nine-game MLB slate with a clear-cut top stack in Coors Field if the weather cooperates. Pitching is more difficult as there are plenty of quality arms, but all of their matchups carry at least some danger. Let’s dive into my MLB DFS advice for this evening’s action.
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MLB DFS Advice: Target Red Sox-Mariners Today | July 31
Game of the Day: Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
There is a caveat here. The actual game of the day is Padres-Rockies in Coors Field. San Diego is the clear top stack with a 23% chance of being the top stack and a 12.2% chance of being the top value stack. They will make or break this slate. There are two reasons that isn’t the game that I chose. First, it is boring. Everyone knows the Padres have good hitters, Austin Gomber is not a good pitcher and Coors Field is a great place to hit. Second, and more importantly, there are significant weather concerns in that game. Wait until closer to lock for more information, but there is a legitimate chance that the game ends up getting postponed. So let’s look at the most interesting DFS game outside of Coors Field, which is happening in Seattle.
Nick Pivetta will get the start tonight for Boston after being used as a bulk reliever in most of his recent appearances. The big impact here for Pivetta is that it means he will have to face the top of Seattle’s lineup instead of entering the game in a weaker part of the order. It also makes it more difficult for him to earn a win, since he will need to complete five innings and leave with the lead to have a chance at getting it, instead of simply leaving with the lead. The small positive tradeoff for us is that it slightly increases his inning projection. Pivetta has been excellent at getting strikeouts this season, with a 29.4% strikeout percentage, which is the second highest on the slate. Seattle’s active roster also has a 25% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching, which is one of the highest in the league. Pivetta is also inexpensive at just $6,600 on DraftKings. He is currently projected to be the highest-owned pitcher at 31.6% with a 12.4% chance of being a top-two scoring pitcher and a 21.2% chance of being a top-two value pitcher.
Pivetta’s opponent is George Kirby, who is having a strong season for the Mariners. Kirby enters tonight’s game with a 22.6% strikeout percentage and 3.60 xFIP. He has only walked 2.4% of hitters, giving him the second-highest K/BB percentage on the slate at 20.2%. He is one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball, which allows him to work deep into games and offset his modest strikeout numbers in DFS. Kirby’s 17.6% chance of being a top-two scoring pitcher is fourth highest in the Top Pitchers tool, and he is projected for 25% ownership.
While both pitchers are strong options tonight, the offenses offer tournament winning upside as well. Kirby’s biggest weakness this season has been left-handed power. Boston’s projected lineup has five left-handed hitters, including three in the top four spots. Kirby has allowed a .212 xISO to lefties compared to a .126 xISO to righties. Masataka Yoshida, Rafael Devers and Triston Casas are the most powerful lefties as Yoshida has a .173 xISO, Devers has a .294 xISO and Casas has a .293 xISO against right-handed pitching this season. While they don’t have as much power, Jarren Duran and Alex Verdugo are productive left-handed hitters as well. Boston is an unlikely team to succeed, as they only have a 2% chance of being the top stack in the Top Stacks tool, but if they do succeed at very low ownership against a popular pitcher, this is a great shot at a large payout.
Pivetta’s biggest weakness this season has been home runs. Boston’s right-hander has allowed 1.33 home runs per nine innings this season and has a .178 xISO to lefties and .201 xISO to righties. Seattle’s home park is one of the worst run-scoring environments in baseball, but it has only been slightly below average for home runs over the last three seasons. While the Mariners do strike out frequently, which gives Pivetta immense upside at a cheap price tag, they also have plenty of power. Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, Teoscar Hernandez and Mike Ford all have an xISO of at least .188 against right-handed pitching this season.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP): $6,400 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL): $6,600 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel
Brandon Lowe (TBR): $4,300 on DraftKings, $3,100 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
Fernando Tatis Jr: Tatis is the clear top hitting option on tonight’s slate if the weather cooperates. San Diego has the highest implied run total and Tatis is their best hitter. Austin Gomber has allowed a .203 xISO with a 16.3% strikeout percentage against right-handed hitters this season while Tatis has produced a .438 xwOBA and .300 xISO in 100 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Ronald Acuna Jr.: Acuna is always one of the best plays on a slate and tonight is no exception. He faces Griffin Canning in Atlanta, where the Braves have an implied run total of about six runs. Canning has had issues with right-handed power this season, allowing a .207 xISO. Acuna is arguably the “safest” hitter in baseball as he offers excellent home run upside in addition to 51 stolen bases. If he just reaches base with nobody in front of him, he is likely to get the equivalent of a double in fantasy points. He has produced a .447 xwOBA and .283 xISO against right-handed pitching this season in addition to his stolen base numbers.
Brandon Lowe: Lowe isn’t actually the third-best hitting play on this slate but, after recommending Tatis and Acuna, it didn’t seem right to go with another stud like Manny Machado in Coors Field. Lowe is still a very strong hitting option, however, and he is reasonably priced at a second base position where it can be difficult to find upside. He gets a nice park upgrade tonight as plays in home-run-friendly Yankee Stadium.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (TBR): $10,500 on DraftKings, $10,600 on FanDuel
Charlie Morton (ATL): $9,300 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
Nick Pivetta (ATL): $6,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Tyler Glasnow: Glasnow is hands down the most talented pitcher on tonight’s slate. He leads the slate with a 34.8% strikeout percentage, which is more than five points higher than Nick Pivetta’s next-best 29.4% strikeout percentage, and a 2.60 xFIP, which is about .7 points better than Alex Cobb’s mark of 3.31. The risk for Glasnow is that he is pitching in Yankee Stadium and has been susceptible to power this season, allowing a .193 xISO to lefties and a .217 xISO to righties. That said, even with the return of Aaron Judge, New York’s active roster has just a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a 22.9% strikeout percentage.
Charlie Morton: Morton faces a potentially potent Angels lineup tonight, depending on who is available. Mike Trout and Taylor Ward are sidelined, but Shohei Ohtani is the best hitter in baseball. It is unclear whether or not C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk will be available after the Angels acquired them from the Rockies. If they are, the matchup for Morton becomes more dangerous, but he is still a strong pitching option with a 24.3% strikeout percentage and 4.07 xFIP at a salary on DraftKings that doesn’t have many pivot options. If Cron and Grichuk are unavailable, the lineup is relatively weak as long as Morton is able to navigate his way around the top part of the order. One noteworthy stat on Morton this season is that he has struck out 28.8% of lefties with a .289 xwOBA compared to just 20.2% of righties with a .373 xwOBA. Ohtani is obviously a problem for anyone but, in general, the more lefties in this lineup, the better it looks for Morton.
Nick Pivetta: There are more details about Pivetta in the Game of the Day section, but he looks like the best SP2 on DraftKings at just $6,600 in a favorable strikeout matchup against the Mariners.
Additional Notes
As mentioned earlier, there is a significant rain concern in Colorado. For now, my approach is to wait and see how things look as lock approaches. If nothing has changed by then, it looks like a situation where your personal risk tolerance will be a factor. On one hand, a threat of postponement will drive down ownership on the best hitting spot on the slate. On the other hand, the Padres are still going to fail over 75% of the time even without adding in the risk of postponement.
