There is an interesting six-game slate tonight, with one true ace on the mound and several other quality options. Most of the pitchers have some sort of red flag, however, so ownership is spread out among them. Five offenses have aggregate ownership projections between 10% and 17%, while the rest are at 7% or less, so there are plenty of options for contrarian stacks. With that in mind, let’s get into the best MLB DFS advice for the Thursday gameset.
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MLB DFS Advice: Yordan Alvarez Is Back | August 3
Game of the Day: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have been a necessity on each of the last two slates, and they will play a huge role on tonight’s slate as well. This game has a 10-run total, and no other game on the slate is higher than 9.0. Chicago’s 5.6 implied run total edges out the Dodgers for the highest mark on the slate, and the Reds have a 4.4 implied run total themselves.
Chicago faces Luke Weaver, which is one of the best matchups possible. Weaver has only struck out 17% of hitters this season and has a 5.06 xFIP while allowing 2.30 home runs per nine innings. Left-handed hitters have a .377 xwOBA and .209 xISO, while righties have a .356 xwOBA and .244 xISO. The Cubs have plenty of power from both sides of the plate, with Ian Happ standing out as a particularly strong value at just $3,300 on DraftKings. Dansby Swanson and Christopher Morel are more expensive but have each produced an xISO north of .200 against right-handed pitching this year. The Cubs currently rank first in top stack percentage at 16.4% and have a 16.5% aggregate ownership projection in the Top Stacks Tool.
Cincinnati hitters will be facing Jameson Taillon, who has massive splits this season. He has been legitimately good against right-handed hitters, striking out 24.5% while holding them to a .282 xwOBA and .118 xISO. Lefties, on the other hand, have had their way with Taillon. He has only struck them out 16.1% of the time while allowing a .404 xwOBA and .290 xISO. Elly De La Cruz is expensive, but he has produced a .352 wOBA and .238 ISO in his first 155 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. His expected numbers are a bit lower, but that is normal for a player with his speed. Jake Fraley, T.J. Friedl and Joey Votto are also likely to be in the lineup against Taillon. The Reds are fourth in Top Stack percentage and fifth in Stack Score in the Top Stacks Tool.
While the Reds are a strong stack, Taillon is also a viable SP2 option. There is no clear-cut SP2 without flaws tonight, and Taillon is underpriced at just $6,200. While the Reds are likely to have a balanced lineup, their lefties are not elite power hitters, and they are likely to have five right-handed hitters. As mentioned before, Taillon has been good against righties this year. He has a 14% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher and a 25.5% chance of being a top-2 value pitcher at 23% ownership in the Top Pitchers Tool.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Aaron Judge (NYY): $6,300 on DraftKings, $4,200 on FanDuel
Jack Suwinski (PIT): $3,600 on DraftKings, $3,100 on FanDuel
Yordan Alvarez (HOU): $5,700 on DraftKings, $4,300 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
Aaron Judge: Judge faces Cristian Javier tonight in Yankee Stadium. Javier has struck out 31% of right-handed hitters this season, but he has also allowed a .237 xISO. Judge has a ridiculous .530 xwOBA and .519 xISO in 189 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year and leads the Top Pitchers Tool with about a 30% chance of hitting a home run tonight.
Jack Suwinski: Suwinski faces Adrian Houser tonight in Milwaukee and continues to be wildly underpriced for his power upside. Houser has held left-handed hitters to a .147 xISO this season, but he has also only struck them out 18.2% of the time. Suwinski has struck out 29.2% of the time against right-handed pitching this year, but he has also produced a .405 xwOBA and .352 xISO. He should be able to put the ball in play against Houser, and he typically does damage when he makes contact. Suwinski also gets a park upgrade as PNC has a 94 park factor for left-handed home runs over the last three years, while American Family Field in Milwaukee has a 108 park factor for left-handed homers over that time.
Yordan Alvarez: Alvarez is back for the Astros, and he has a favorable matchup tonight against Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt has allowed a .182 xISO and .352 xwOBA to lefties with just an 18.4% strikeout percentage in 2023. Alvarez missed time with an injury but has produced a .449 xwOBA and .347 xISO in 179 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year. He also will get to face Schmidt in Yankee Stadium, which is the third-best park for left-handed home runs over the last three seasons.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Shohei Ohtani (LAA): $11,000 on DraftKings, $10,400 on FanDuel
Julio Urias (LAD): $9,800 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Cristian Javier (HOU): $8,600 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani is the only true ace on this slate. He has struck out 32% of hitters and has a 3.52 xFIP this season. He faces the Mariners tonight in Anaheim, which is dangerous because Seattle has power and Angel Stadium is a favorable hitter’s park. No pitcher on this slate is free of red flags, however, so Ohtani still stands out as the top option. He has a 38.4% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher at 46.2% projected ownership. It is also worth noting that he has been much more vulnerable to left-handed power than right-handed power, and outside of Cal Raleigh and Mike Ford, the Mariners power hitters are mostly right-handed.
Julio Urias: Urias has not been as good as usual this season, striking out a modest 22.6% of hitters and posting a 4.38 xFIP. While those numbers typically do not warrant an expensive price tag, he is facing the Athletics on a slate with a lot of scary pitching options. The A’s have the lowest implied run total on the slate, and Urias is second to Ohtani in top-2 percentage and in ownership.
Cristian Javier: Javier has been a volatile pitcher this season, allowing power to both sides of the plate while striking out 22.9% and posting a 5.02 xFIP overall. He is in a dangerous spot in Yankee Stadium, which is one of the most home-run-friendly parks in baseball. The reason to like Javier, however, is that the Yankees are likely to have a right-handed-heavy offense against him. While both sides have hit for power, righties have struck out 31% of the time, compared to just 16.7% for lefties. New York’s projected lineup has seven right-handed hitters, so Javier has a good chance at erasing whatever home runs he does give up by racking up strikeouts. He is much less appealing on FanDuel since it only requires one pitcher and he is more expensive than Urias.
