We have a six game MLB DFS slate tonight with pretty weak pitching. Slates like this can lead to lineups that make you uncomfortable, but they also offer an edge because the field will gravitate heavily to the same spots, and it will be easier to build contrarian DFS lineups. Let’s dive into Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, and analyze the best MLB DFS value picks tonight at DraftKings.
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MLB DFS Advice: Don’t Overlook Orioles-Yankees Matchup
Game of the Day: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
An argument could be made that the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox have the best game on the slate, but we’re going to talk about the Orioles and Yankees. The game only has an 8.5 run total, but it is a park that is great for home runs, with two pitchers on the mound that give up some power. Even if this game ends up 5-4, there is a pretty good chance that there are multiple home runs involved.
Kyle Bradish currently has the fourth best odds of being a top two scoring pitcher and the fourth best odds of being a top two value pitcher in the Top Pitchers tool. He has been solid this season, striking out 22.3 percent of right-handed hitters and 23.8 percent of left-handed hitters. He also gets a favorable matchup against a Yankees team that is still without Aaron Judge. The downside is that Bradish is projected to be the second most popular pitcher on the slate with 34.3 percent ownership on DraftKings. Pitching in Yankee Stadium is always dangerous, and he has allowed a .193 xISO to righties compared to .135 actual ISO. Yankee Stadium is a much better park for right-handed power than Camden Yards, so we could certainly see some of that regression hit tonight.
On the other hand, Luis Severino has been terrible this season. He will be facing a predominantly left-handed lineup in a park that is great for left-handed power and he has only struck out 14.3 percent of left-handed hitters so far this season while allowing a .231 xISO and .401 xwOBA. That said, he looks to be going a bit underowned. He has a track record of being a much better pitcher than he has been so far this season, and most projection models expect his strikeout percentage to be five to six points higher going forward. Severino projects less than two points behind Bradish tonight, yet he’s projected for twice as much ownership. If that ownership projection holds, he is a strong contrarian option despite the risk.
Both offenses are interesting as well because of the home run upside– especially if you aren’t going to the pitchers. Severino has allowed a .231 xISO to lefties this season, as mentioned previously, and Baltimore’s projected lineup has eight left-handed hitters including the top seven spots in the lineup. They also offer value as you move down the order, with Ryan O’Hearn, Aaron Hicks and Colton Cowser all priced at $3,600 or below (and Cowser is the absolute minimum). The Yankees’ lineup was just released and Giancarlo Stanton isn’t playing, so they are missing one of their best remaining power hitters. However, Anthony Volpe is leading off, which gives us a strong value shortstop option. The Orioles currently have an 8.4 percent chance of being the top scoring stack at 7.8 percent aggregate ownership while the Yankees are further down the Top Stacks tool with a 3.7 percent chance of being the top stack at 4.2 percent aggregate ownership.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Jose Ramirez (CLE): $6,000 on DraftKings
Cedric Mullins (BAL): $4,900 on DraftKings
Starling Marte (NYM): $3,900 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Jose Ramirez: Ramirez has a fantastic matchup against Jordan Lyles tonight in Cleveland. Lyles has allowed a .233 xISO to left-handed hitters this season while Ramirez has a .379 xwOBA and .192 xISO against right-handed pitchers.
Cedric Mullins: Mullins gets a favorable matchup against Severino and he will look to take advantage of the short porch in right field. He’s reasonably priced at $4,900 on DraftKings and has produced a .330 wOBA and .186 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Starling Marte: Marte remains inexpensive tonight as he faces Ryne Nelson. Nelson has been better against righties than lefties, but he still has just a 19.3 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed hitters. He has held them to a .297 xwOBA and .154 xISO, but Marte offers stolen base upside as well.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Tanner Bibee (CLE): $8,700 on DraftKings
Kyle Bradish (BAL): $7,200on DraftKings
George Kirby (SEA): $9,600 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Tanner Bibee: Bibee is projected to be the highest owned pitcher on the slate and he deserves it. He is reasonably priced at $8,700 and gets to face the Royals, who have a 3.6 implied run total. Kansas City’s active roster has just an 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a 25.1 percent strikeout percentage. Bibee enters the game with a 24.4 percent strikeout percentage and 4.27 xFIP.
Kyle Bradish: Bradish has been good this season, striking out 23 percent of hitters with a 3.83 xFIP, and he is inexpensive at just $7,200. He is projected to be somewhat overowned in tournaments, but he projects as one of the best values. The Yankees are also running out a weaker than usual lineup tonight without Stanton which should benefit Bradish as well.
George Kirby: Kirby is an interesting tournament option as he projects to be lower owned than Julio Urias at the same price point. Urias has the better matchup, but he also only went three innings and threw 66 pitches in his return from a hamstring injury in his last start. The Dodgers have historically been very cautious with Urias, so we should expect Kirby to have a much longer leash. He has a relatively difficult matchup against Houston, but the Astros will be without Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez so its better than usual for Kirby. He has struck out 21.4 percent of hitters with a 2.2 percent strikeout percentage and 3.64 xFIP.
