Thursday has a couple of early tilts along with a seven-game featured slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups for today, such as rookie RHP Tanner Bibee against the Kansas City Royals along with the Arizona Diamondbacks against a struggling RHP Carlos Carrasco.Â
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Priority Pitching Target: RHP Tanner Bibee vs. Kansas City Royals — 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $9,200 | Yahoo $38
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has rookie RHP Tanner Bibee looking like the best pitching option today, though there certainly is no discount for his services on FanDuel. Kansas City heads to Cleveland after dropping all three games in Minnesota, including being victims of a complete game shutout at the hands of RHP Pablo Lopez on Wednesday.
Weather is the only real concern for Bibee in this matchup. The 24-year-old has impressed this season with a 3.46 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and nearly one strikeout per inning over his first dozen starts in The Show. He allowed three or fewer runs in 10 of those tilts, and the Royals are currently ahead of only the pitiful Detroit Tigers in wRC+ with 83. They are averaging only 3.2 runs scored over their last 10 games.
If weather ends up taking Bibee off the board, other options, including RHPs Kyle Bradish and Luis Severino facing each other in the Bronx, Nathan Eovaldi in Boston against one of his former teams and Georgy Kirby in a tricky matchup in Houston against the reigning World Champion Astros, stand out.
For the bold, and I cannot believe I am putting this down for the record, RHPÂ Ryne Nelson has allowed just five runs in his last three starts, all on the road. He has somehow ceded three or fewer runs in 11 of 17 starts. The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed, so if you think his lucky rabbit’s foot has one more good game in it, he is worthy of consideration against the enigmatic Mets.
The one saving grace when it comes to DFS is that we are all choosing from the same player pool. Tonight should be a fun tournament adventure.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Julio Urias vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $8,700 | Yahoo $42
After missing nearly six weeks with a hamstring issue, LHPÂ Julio Urias had a rough return start on Saturday in Kansas City. He threw 68 pitches but ended up getting lifted after the third inning, though that effort included a 12-pitch at-bat against Matt Duffy and just three singles and a double. Though Urias had just a pair of strikeouts, he should be on track for a better performance tonight. Will it be worthy of his salary on the featured slate? Well, that is debatable, but if he gets up to the 80-85 pitch range, he has a chance against a Pittsburgh lineup that has been a tick above average against southpaws this season.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Cleveland Guardians vs. RHP Jordan Lyles — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Seven is most definitely not a lucky number for RHPÂ Jordan Lyles. That’s the number of multi-home run games he has participated in over his 16 starts. His 6.68 ERA is well north of an already abysmal 5.20 career ERA, and his 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings are his second lowest in the last seven seasons. The only risk with the Guardians is the weather, so if this game is taken off the board, look to the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers as solid contingencies.
Jose Ramirez is always the anchor for any Guardians stack because the switch-hitter is phenomenal from both sides of the plate and is also on pace for 20 stolen bases. Andres Gimenez and Josh Bell should have chances today with ducks on the pond, unless Ramirez clears the bases before it is their turn.
While we typically look for a lot of home run power when selecting stacks, we know that Cleveland is below average in that category. However, they have seven projected hitters who strike out 20% of the time or less against right-handed hurlers. Five of their projected bats also have a .330 wOBA or better over the last two seasons against right-handed pitchers. These two ingredients, along with Lyles’ propensity for power and his own lack of strikeout production, make for an excellent, albeit non-traditional, stacking recipe. Bon Appétit!
Late Slate Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Dodgers, but rather than write them up for a third consecutive game against a subpar right-handed Pittsburgh pitcher, let’s take a gander at the Diamondbacks.
Across five June starts, RHP Carlos Carrasco was pretty lucky to end up with only a 6.23 ERA. In 21.2 total innings, he allowed six home runs and a whopping 13 walks. The 36-year-old had a 6.98 xERA during this stretch to go with a 56.5% hard-hit rate and a 13% barrel rate.
The core four to focus on from Arizona are Ketel Marte (.184 ISO), Christian Walker (.233 ISO) and All-Stars Corbin Carroll (.314 ISO) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.169 ISO), all of whom boast elite power against right-handed pitching.
Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas are late-slate differentiation plays as they are likely to be in the bottom third of the order. McCarthy has not shown much pop this season but has been a blur on the base paths after returning from a Triple-A demotion. Thomas has not seen his 43.5% hard contact rate over his last 442 lefty-righty matchups result in above-average power (.147 ISO), but the advanced metrics indicate more should be coming as he develops his skills.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Ryan O’Hearn is an interesting option in the sports wagering market tonight against RHP Luis Severino, who has allowed two or more home runs in four of his last six starts.Â
Using the new true odds feature from OddsShopper, we can see that the +420 for O’Hearn’s home run prop should be closer to +368. This market inefficiency is like getting a profit boost of nearly 8%.Â
While O’Hearn is a pinch-hit risk if a southpaw comes in from the bullpen, he should get at least two chances against Severino. This season he has a .217 ISO against righties, and everyone knows that Yankee Stadium favors hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Though their odds are efficient, switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Aaron Hicks are also on the board as secondary home run wagers.
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Final Thoughts for Thursday, July 6 | MLB DFS Picks
The main weather concern for the featured slate is Cleveland. Considering we want to play both the pitcher and stack the Guardians, we may have some tough decisions to make, as this is also the first game of the main slate.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows, at 5:00 p.m. ET, brought to you by PrizePicks. New users sign up through this link and receive 30 FREE days of Stokastic+ Platinum and a first deposit match up to $100.
