There is a short five-game MLB slate tonight. It is an interesting slate for tournaments, as there is plenty of quality pitching, but all of those pitchers have at least one red flag, whether it be matchup, recent performance or their general volatility.
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MLB DFS Advice: Framber Valdez, Cubs-White Sox | July 26
Game of the Day: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
This game’s nine-run total is not as high as the game in Fenway Park between the Braves and Red Sox, but the pricing in that game makes it a bit more difficult to target in great quantity for DFS. The game in Chicago has plenty of upside at much more favorable prices, and the upside is available both on the mound and at the plate.
Lance Lynn is projected to be the highest-owned player from this game on DraftKings at 34.6% ownership. Lynn has the second-highest strikeout percentage on the slate at 27.3%, and he has a respectable 3.95 xFIP. The Cubs active roster has the ninth-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season, though it has also been slightly above average in terms of production, with a 104 wRC+. Lynn’s 24.9% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher is fourth highest in the Top Pitchers Tool.
Marcus Stroman will oppose Lynn, and he is only projected for 11% ownership at a healthy $9,400 price tag on DraftKings. He does not project as well as some of the other pitchers on the slate, but he is still a good pitcher in a reasonable matchup at low ownership on a short slate. Stroman has struck out a modest 21.1% of hitters this year, but he also has a 3.76 xFIP and 57.8% ground ball percentage. The White Sox offense has been below average, with an 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season while posting the 11th-highest strikeout percentage at 23.3%.
While both pitchers are viable options, with Lynn being a priority and Stroman being a strong contrarian play, the offenses offer value and upside as well. Lynn has been a very good strikeout pitcher this year, as mentioned previously, but he has also allowed 2.19 home runs per nine innings, and he is pitching in the stadium that has the fifth-highest home run park factor over the last three seasons. Left-handed hitters have been the glaring weakness for Lynn, as he has allowed a .269 xISO and .385 xwOBA while striking out 23.1%. The Cubs projected lineup has five lefties, with three of them in the top 4. It is not the most power-laden lineup, as Mike Tauchman has a .154 xISO, Ian Happ has a .159 xISO and Cody Bellinger has a .134 xISO against right-handed pitching this year, but simply being left-handed is enough to give a hitter home run upside against Lynn. The Cubs currently have the third-highest top stack percentage and third-most projected ownership in the Top Stacks Tool.
It is more difficult to make individual cases for White Sox hitters since Stroman does not have an obvious weakness like Lynn does. Stroman has only struck out 19.1% of lefties compared to 23.5% of righties this season, but he has only allowed a .098 xISO to lefties and a .124 xISO to righties. That said, the White Sox are inexpensive and are tied for the fifth-highest Stack Score in the Top Stacks Tool. They are projected for the sixth-most ownership.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Matt Olson (ATL): $6,400 on DraftKings, $4,200 on FanDuel
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY): $5,000 on DraftKings, $3,000 on FanDuel
Cody Bellinger (CHC): $4,600 on DraftKings, $3,900 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
Matt Olson: The Braves’ 5.6 implied run total tonight in Boston is the highest on the slate as they take on Brayan Bello and the Red Sox. Bello is a promising young pitcher, but he has had issues with left-handed hitters this year. Olson is the best left-handed hitter on the Braves, and he should also benefit from warm weather, with the wind blowing out in Fenway Park. Bello has been lights out against righties, striking out 26.4% while holding them to a .286 xwOBA. Lefties, on the other hand, have only struck out 14.4% of the time and have a .335 xwOBA and .200 xISO. Olson enters the game with a .362 xwOBA and .215 xISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Giancarlo Stanton: The Yankees offense as a whole has been underwhelming this year, but Stanton cannot be ignored against a mediocre lefty in Yankee Stadium. Jose Quintana is only making his second start of the season, and he did a good job of limiting right-handed power last year, as he held righties to a .126 xISO. Still, he only struck out 18.4% of righties, and when Stanton makes contact, he tends to hit the ball far. He only has 35 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, but in 153 plate appearances since the start of last year, Stanton has a .369 xwOBA and .308 xISO. He has a 24.2% chance of hitting a home run tonight in Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool.
Cody Bellinger: Bellinger is having a strong season for the Cubs, though his underlying metrics do not support his production. He has a .346 wOBA and .186 ISO against right-handed pitching this year but just a .308 xwOBA and .134 xISO. He has a great matchup against Lynn tonight, however. Bellinger has just an 18.8% strikeout percentage against righties this season, and Lynn is incapable of limiting hard contact when lefties put the ball in play.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Spencer Strider (ATL): $12,700 on DraftKings, $11,200 on FanDuel
Framber Valdez (HOU): $10,900 on DraftKings, $10,300 on FanDuel
Carlos Rodon (NYY): $9,000 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Spencer Strider: Strider is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, as he has struck out 39.7% of hitters this year and has a 2.68 xFIP. He is expensive with a dangerous matchup tonight against the Red Sox in favorable hitting conditions at Fenway Park, but he has unmatched upside and his strikeout ability gives him a higher floor than anyone else as well. His 37.6% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher is the highest on the slate, and he is projected to be the fourth-highest-owned pitcher at 28.9%.
Framber Valdez: Valdez is another legitimate ace on tonight’s slate. He enters the game with a 26.9% strikeout percentage and 2.99 xFIP. He has only walked 6.1% of hitters this season, which allows him to conserve pitches and work deep into games, and he is an elite ground ball pitcher. He has a dangerous matchup against the Rangers, but every pitcher on this slate has at least one red flag, so Valdez still projects as one of the best options.
Carlos Rodon: Rodon is risky, as this is only his fourth start since returning from injury and he has struggled. He is discounted, however, at $9,000 on DraftKings and only $7,600 on FanDuel. His velocity through his first few starts is in line with previous years, which is a great sign. He also has had some tough matchups, as he faced the Angels in Los Angeles and the Rockies in Coors Field, two of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Tonight’s matchup with the Mets is not an easy one, but Rodon struck out 33.4% of hitters and had a 2.91 xFIP last season, and he is significantly underpriced if his true talent level this year is remotely close to last year’s.
