Sunday brings several weather concerns for the 1:35 p.m. ET featured slate. The afternoon forecast is teeming with home runs for Mexico City and Coors Field. This should be a wild ride in the large-field tournaments on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including LHP Nestor Cortes in Texas against the Rangers. Milwaukee is the offense to target as the Brew Crew are facing a struggling southpaw in Jose Suarez, who has allowed 19 runs in 16.2 innings for a 10.26 ERA.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Nestor Cortes at Texas Rangers — 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $9,700 | Yahoo $46
It looks like weather could take away RHP Spencer Strider and fellow southpaw Justin Steele is taking part in the early game on Peacock, so that elevates LHP Nestor Cortes to the top of the pitching projections. It looks like there could be some normalization with the Texas offense, as the Rangers have come back to reality, with “just” 12 runs in their last four games.
Cortes is well known for his wonky pitching style, and he has been able to incorporate most of his deliveries within the new pitching clock and tightened balk rules. In his five April starts, spanning 28.1 innings, Cortes logged a 3-1 record, a 3.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, while ceded a trio of longballs and notching 28 strikeouts. Texas sets up well against left-handed pitchers and this matchup is far from a walk in the park. Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim will all be tough outs. However, Josh Jung and Ezequiel Duran are unproven at the major league level. It is also important to note that Corey Seager and Mitch Garver are on the injured list, which means the last couple slots in the order will be filled by replacement level bats.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Drew Rasmussen at Chicago White Sox — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $10,500 | Yahoo $46
Chicago is one of many cities looking at precipitation today, though there is a solid chance this game at least plays. RHP Drew Rasmussen has had two poor starts where he suffered five earned runs — at Toronto and against Houston — but he has held Washington, Cincinnati and Oakland scoreless in the other three. This has worked out to a 3.33 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, one home run allowed and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The White Sox have been beset by injuries the last few seasons and this year they are currently without Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Hanser Alberto and now Andrew Benintendi is dinged up. Plus Jose Abreu is on the Astros, so we are currently seeing a patchwork offense.
Main Slate Bonus Pitching Target: RHP Sonny Gray vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $11,500 | Yahoo $53
Acknowledging there is a chance of a weather delay in Chicago this afternoon, RHP Sonny Gray is a fine alternative for those who do not want to watch the AccuWeather forecast all afternoon. Minnesota does have a slight chance of precipitation, but it should not impact the game. Gray is coming with a similar salary to Rasmussen on DraftKings, though he is carrying a 10%ish premium on FanDuel and Yahoo.
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (May 1)
- MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Back Jordan Montgomery Against the Dodgers? (May 1)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Astros + Rangers = Texas Two-Stack (May 1)
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Jazz Chisholm Jr. (May 1 Main Slate)
- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
For as mercurial as Gray is, and for how much disdain the MLB DFS community has for his consistency, he does have a 3.50 ERA across his 253 appearances, spanning 11 seasons. The 33-year-old has been lights out so far this season allowing just two runs in 29 innings. Of course, there will be regression back to his career norms, as a sub-1.00 ERA is all but impossible to maintain for long, but that does not have to happen today. Dating back to the beginning of last season, the current collection of Kansas City hitters has the second-worst offensive efficiency in the league, with an 83 wRC+ while also landing in the bottom five for power and the top five for strikeouts. The Royals fall off dramatically after cleanup hitter Salvador Perez, making this is a desirable matchup for Gray.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Nick Lodolo at Oakland Athletics — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $38
This is shaping up to be a rough one for the Oakland Athletics, as they struck out 17 times yesterday, with 10 at the hand of Hunter Greene, who is a flamethrowing righty. Today the A’s will be seeing the opposite look from LHP Nick Lodolo, who is a strikeout artist on par with Greene. Lodolo had a 10.3 strikeout rate in three seasons at Texas Christian University, a 13.9 rate in 81.2 MiLB innings and that has evolved into an impressive 11.7 in 129 innings at the big league level. The Athletics are better against lefties than they are righties, but they are still counting on a lot of unproven prospects and journeyman bats on a day-to-day basis. If Lodolo can work around Ramon Laureano, who just returned to action and Jesus Aguilar, he will likely make his fantasy supporters happy today.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. LHP Marco Gonzales — 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
It is a shame that the Mariners will be without LHP Robbie Ray, as the 2021 Cy Young winner needs season-ending surgery on his pitching arm. Now that the 2021 American League Cy Young Award winner is out of the mix, the rest of the Seattle rotation bumps up a slot. That in turn means that LHP Marco Gonzales, who was a luxury option at the back of the rotation, now needs to deliver. Unfortunately, the former St. Louis Cardinal is on the wrong side of 30, and he has seen a dramatic increase in home runs all the way up to 1.58 per nine over his last 61 starts.
Strikeouts were never really part of the strategy for Gonzales, and he has definitely entered the “crafty lefty” portion of his career. Looking at his pitch mix, he has gone away from his fastball over the last two years and has been relying on his changeup. That is a pitch that works when hitters are not expecting it … but when they know it is going to be coming nearly one-third of the time they can sit on it. Though that is not a pitch type that ends up in a lot of home runs, it does lead to extra-base line drives when it is hit in the gap.
Toronto will be running out a right-handed lineup on Sunday, with George Springer, Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the core four fantasy targets. Whit Merrifield and catchers Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk are likely to find themselves in the lineup on Sunday. They will be at the bottom of the order, but still a fine source of differentiation at a nice discount.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Target: Milwaukee Brewers vs. LHP Jose Suarez — 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
There are a lot of weather spots on the “main” slate, so the nice thing about American Family Field is that it has a retractable roof. The other nice thing for the Brewers is that LHP Jose Suarez will be on the bump for Los Angeles. On Saturday, the Brewers ended up putting up seven runs, four earned, on LHP Reid Detmers, and he is a far better pitcher than Suarez.
Even with the elevated strikeout rate for the project Milwaukee lineup, that is not of any concern against Suarez, where it was something that had Detmers on the shortlist of options last night. In his last start, Suarez allowed five home runs to the Athletics … yes, the same Oakland offense that we target with opposing pitchers on a near daily basis. When Suarez first came up to the majors, he did have a home run issue, with 2.59 per nine innings in his first 21 outings spanning 83.1 innings. His next two seasons, it seemed like that was under control, as he was solid with only 1.09 per nine innings over 207.1 innings. This year he now has ceded seven in just 16.2 frames. There is no guarantee that he will continue at this pace, but it would stand to reason that he could be tipping his pitches or potentially masking an injury.
Willy Adames is a tremendous option, as is catcher William Contreras, who should be in the lineup behind the dish or as the designated hitter. Mike Brousseau is a pinch-hit risk if a left-handed reliever comes into the game, and the Angels have four in their bullpen. While Christian Yelich does not have much pop against fellow southpaws, he should get a couple at bats against some right-handers, and as the leadoff man, he is all but assured of five plate appearances. Brian Anderson is far from an exciting option, but he should have a prominent slot in the batting order and he can handle mediocre lefties.
Mexico City Matchup: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres — 20.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
This game is not going to catch anyone off guard on Sunday after sportsbooks took a bath against enterprising folks who loaded up on same-game parlays. Saturday saw a 15 projected game total, and the overnight lines were posted at 20 midway through yesterday’s action.
This paragraph was posted yesterday, though some readers glossed over it: All we need to know is that this game is being played in Mexico City at Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium. While this venue has similar dimensions to Coors Field, it also is at another 2,000 feet of elevation. This CBS Sports article does a nice job of breaking everything down that we need to know about this game. For those that fall into the TLDR category, play ever hitter in what is projecting to be a batting practice environment.
Sunday we have RHP Alex Cobb going for San Francisco and the hope for the Giants will be that he is able to induce groundballs at something close to the 58.1% rate of his last 61 starts spanning 323.2 innings. RHP Yu Darvish is slated to take the ball for San Diego, and he has allowed a sterling 1.07 home runs per nine innings over the last three-plus seasons, but that does not mean he will be shutting down the G-men.
One other thing to consider is that the Giants used five relievers who combined for 133 pitchers after starter Sean Manaea left the game logging just two innings on 71 pitches. The Friars were in a similar spot, using five relievers who combined for 123 pitches. Keep in mind both teams were off on Friday as a travel day, but how wild would this game be if a position player ended up on the mound?!
This slate also, of course, has the Coors Field Extravaganza, though that somehow pales in comparison to the game taking place 1,500 or so miles to the south. Load up on the Diamondbacks swinging the stick from the right side of the plate against LHP Austin Gomber, who has been saddled with a 9.28 ERA in just 21.1 innings, with five longballs and 15 strikeouts.
Then we have the Rockies against RHP Ryne Nelson, who somehow survived last season in very limited innings but has been exposed this year with an anemic 17 strikeouts, which is one more than his 16 earned runs in five starts spanning 27 innings. Batters of both handedness have found success against Nelson, so we do not need to be picky.
Final Thoughts for Sunday, April 30 | MLB DFS Picks
Today is a rough one from a weather perspective, as most of the Mid-Atlantic venues are looking at sustained rain for most of the day. New York and Washington are looking at heavy rain this morning, and there could be a little bit of a respite this afternoon, but nothing is certain. Boston starts to get wet about an hour after first pitch, so if that systems slows a little, they could have a window to get in the first seven innings unscathed (fingers crossed).
Chicago is in for a stormy afternoon, so similar to Boston, it all depends when the front arrives. Detroit is the “safest” and while there will be precipitation in the area, there is a chance nothing congregates enough to impact the game.
Check out Sunday’s Stokastic MLB Strategy Show starting at 11 a.m. ET, brought to you by Sorare. Get 1 FREE “Limited” card after completing your first 5 card purchases on the primary market!
