We have 12 MLB games tonight with a nice mix of quality pitching and quality hitting. As a result, ownership should be spread out nicely and it shouldn’t be too difficult to create lineups that project well and are also contrarian enough to succeed in tournaments. Let’s dive into my expert MLB DFS advice for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Advice: Target Mariners-Twins Again Today | July 25
Game of the Day: Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
We’re going right back to this matchup again tonight as it remains one of the most interesting on the slate. The game has a 7.5-run total as we once again have two good pitchers facing off in Pablo Lopez and George Kirby.
Lopez has the second-highest strikeout percentage on the slate at 30.2 percent, and Seattle’s active roster has the second-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season at 24.9 percent. The Mariners have a respectable 102 wRC+ and .166 ISO against right-handed pitching, but most of their best hitters hit from the right side. Lopez has held righties to a .263 xwOBA while striking them out 32.8 percent of the time this season. Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez are certainly still capable of doing damage, but it sets up about as well as it can for Lopez. Lopez is currently projected for 26 percent ownership on DraftKings with a 22.3 percent chance of being a top-two scoring pitcher.
On the other side, George Kirby has only struck out 21.7 percent of hitters this season, but he has also only walked 2.3 percent of hitters, which allows him to conserve pitches and work deep into games. His 19.4 percent strikeout-to-walk ratio is better than every pitcher on the slate other than Lopez. Minnesota has the highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season, so there is plenty of upside for Kirby despite his modest strikeout numbers. Kirby is a viable contrarian option at 9 percent ownership with a 10.4 percent chance of being a top-two scoring pitcher.
While neither offense is likely to succeed, there is plenty of power in both lineups. The Twins, in particular, are interesting, as Kirby has had some issues with left-handed power this season. He has struck out just 20.2 percent of lefties while allowing a .206 xISO and .332 xwOBA. The Twins’ lineup has plenty of left-handed power with Edouard Julien, Alex Kiriloff, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Joey Gallo all likely to start. They are also extremely inexpensive so, if they do produce, we can have nothing but studs around them in our DFS lineups.
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MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP): $6,500 on DraftKings, $4,100 on FanDuel
Jose Ramirez (CLE): $5,300 on DraftKings, $3,900 on FanDuel
Adolis Garcia (TEX): $5,500 on DraftKings, $3,700 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
Fernando Tatis, Jr.: Tatis is in the midst of another productive season with a 130 wRC+ and .224 IOS. His numbers aren’t as good as they were pre-injury and suspension, but he’s still been an extremely good hitter. He has a favorable matchup tonight against Rich Hill in San Diego. Hill is on the final stretch of his career and has allowed a .220 xISO and .372 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Tatis has produced a .445 xwOBA and .307 xISO in 90 plate appearances against lefties this season.
Jose Ramirez: Ramirez gets to face a different old pitcher than Tatis as he faces Zack Greinke in Cleveland. Greinke has only struck out 13.1 percent of left-handed hitters this season while allowing a .376 xwOBA and .212 xISO. Ramirez hasn’t hit for quite as much power as usual this season with a .198 ISO compared to his career .222 mark, but the matchup against Greinke still looks great.
Adolis Garcia: Garcia faces J.P. France tonight in Houston. France has some of the weirdest splits in the league as he has only allowed a .075 xISO and .259 xwOBA to opposite-handed hitters this season. Same-handed hitters, like Garcia, have produced a .371 xwOBA and .248 xISO against France this season, however. France has also only struck righties out at a 14.7 percent clip, so there is a good chance Garcia will be able to put the ball in play and do damage. He has produced a .381 xwOBA and .297 xISO against right-handed pitching this season.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Pablo Lopez (MIN): $10,400 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
Blake Snell (SDP): $10,000 on DraftKings, $11,000 on FanDuel
Corbin Burnes (MIL): $9,200 on DraftKings, $10,300 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Pablo Lopez: We can go back to the well tonight with Minnesota pitching after Kenta Maeda rewarded us last night. Lopez’s 30.2 percent strikeout percentage is the second-highest on the slate and he has a 3.50 xFIP as well. Seattle has the second-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching on their active roster this season.
Blake Snell: Yu Darvish was awful against the Pirates last night as the most popular pitcher on the slate, but that shouldn’t stop us from rostering Snell. After a slow start to the season, Snell now has a slate-leading 31.6 percent strikeout percentage and a 3.53 xFIP year-to-date. His 13 percent walk percentage is still too high, which adds risk by driving up his pitch count while putting runners on base, but he has a favorable matchup against the Pirates and their 2.9 implied run total. The Pirates’ active roster is 24th in wRC+ with a 22.8 percent strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching since the start of last season.
Corbin Burnes: Burnes is another pitcher who started the season slowly but has produced numbers lately that are more in line with expectations. He has a 25.4 percent strikeout percentage and 3.95 xFIP overall this season. In four starts in July, including two against the Reds, he has struck out 36.4 percent of hitters with a 2.97 xFIP. We should never rely on arbitrary sample sizes like a pitcher’s last four starts, but it is nice to see Burnes recently performing at the level that he has in the past. Cincinnati has plenty of young talent on their roster, and tonight’s game is in a hitter-friendly park, but there is plenty of upside for Burnes at a discounted salary.
