NBA Player Props: What to Do With Al Horford's Inconsistent Shooting (May 21)

The Celtics are on the ropes, having dropped both home games to fall down 2-0. Now they have to travel to Miami to get the series back on track. With Game 3 on deck, we will once again take a look at the best Celtics-Heat NBA player props on NBA Bet Pro to find high-EV spots. We have included three here, but there are 22 other +EV plays in the model at the moment. So don’t forget that you can subscribe to NBA Bet Pro today and get a free trial week to access all of these NBA player props with positive ROIs!

Today’s Top NBA Player Props From NBA Bet Pro | May 21

3. Al Horford Over 1.5 3-Pointers (+100, BetRivers)

This was perhaps Horford’s best shooting season of his career, but his 3-point stroke has largely evaded him in the playoffs. He has shot 28.8% from deep in the postseason, down from 44.6% from 3 in the regular season, and he has games of 1-for-8 and 0-for-7 on 3’s mixed in. That said, Horford’s volume has been there enough that he has still gone over 1.5 3’s in 10 of 15 playoff games, including two of his last three.

The plus money on the over seems to be a reaction to how poorly Horford is shooting, not actually how much he is hitting the over. NBA Bet Pro likes those odds on a 52% win rate and gives it a 5% EV.

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2. Jaylen Brown Under 3.5 Assists (-102, FanDuel)

Brown is coming off a terrible shooting game. This could mean a few things for his assists; on the one hand, it could cause Brown to instead opt to distribute and forgo shots. On the other, he could try to shoot his way out of the slump. NBA Bet Pro is projecting the latter, as it has Brown pegged for 25.2 points, 2.7 3’s and just 2.8 assists.

Brown is averaging exactly 3.5 assists during the playoffs, and he has hit the over in one of the two games this series. That said, he is slightly under 50% for the whole postseason (7-for-15). And with the series shifting to Miami, NBA Bet Pro is backing the under, giving it a 54% win expectancy and a strong 8% expected ROI.

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1. Malcolm Brogdon, Under 2.5 3-Pointers (-175, PointsBet)

Brogdon is the opposite of Horford — he is shooting at a high clip this postseason (42.3%), but his volume does not merit this 2.5 line. Even with the good shooting performance, he is only averaging 2.2 made 3’s per game, already below the line before even factoring in the matchup dampening his projection. Brogdon has only eclipsed it in five of 15 games in the playoffs, none of which game in Games 1 and 2 of this series. That has caused this line to be juiced to -175.

But even with that, NBA Bet Pro gives Brogdon a 70% chance of staying under 2.5 3’s, so there is still plenty of value in taking the under despite the short odds. He projects for just 1.8 3-pointers in this game and is getting a whopping 11% EV on under 2.5.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.