There are just two games in the NHL on this Friday night, but we have the return of Ottawa Senators defenseman Thomas Chabot and a lopsided matchup between San Jose and New Jersey. Let’s break the slate down and our NHL DFS picks today.
With both games locking at 7 PM ET, Stokastic members should check the Discord around 6:45 PM ET for lineup and injury information, especially with two of the four teams playing their second game in as many nights.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Nico Hischier (NJ vs. SJ): DraftKings – $5,400 | FanDuel – $5,000
In three games since returning from injury, Hischier has two goals and three assists, skating at least 20 minutes in his two most recent outings. When he’s been skating with Jesper Bratt at 5-on-5, the team is out-attempting the opposition by a whopping 101-51 while winning the high-danger chance differential 22-12. Though the sample is still under 70 minutes, that duo has been phenomenal at creating offense even going back to last season in a sample that crests 435 minutes.
New Jersey hosts San Jose tonight and that is clearly a matchup that favors the home side; the Sharks are giving up the most shots per minute in the league over the last four weeks. Even that stretch of improved play sees the Sharks rank 24th in the league by goals against per minute. With Hischier also on the team’s top PP unit, he has a great matchup at all offensive strengths.
Hischier trails only teammate Jack Hughes for fantasy points projection, on either site, among all centers on the slate tonight. He is priced outside the top-4 at his position on both sites as well, so there is very good point-per-dollar value for him regardless of where he’s rostered.
Michael McLeod (NJ vs. SJ): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $4,100
In the three games since Hischier’s return, McLeod is still skating over 15 minutes a night. In his final three games before Hischier’s return, he was a little over 16 minutes a night so there is still trust from the coaches, as well as acceptable levels of ice time. He is fourth on the team in points per minute at 5-on-5, rating higher than Hischier or Bratt, and his shot rate is in the middle of the roster’s forwards. He has been productive at that strength; he just doesn’t play the high minutes their elite options do.
Like Hischier, this is an ideal matchup for McLeod. In some ways, it’s even more beneficial for McLeod. With the Devils also on a back-to-back, they may not want to play their top forwards 20 minutes (or more) in a matchup they should easily win. It could mean more ice time for our center, and he’s been very good with winger Alex Holtz: in nearly 55 minutes together, they’ve outshot the opposition 43-26 and outscored them 8-1.
McLeod is behind only Mikael Granlund in fantasy point projection among the cheap centers tonight, and that gives him both a strong point outlook as well as excellent point-per-dollar value. He can be used as a salary-saving center in any format tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Brady Tkachuk (OTT at CBJ): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $8,700
With 10 goals in 17 games, Tkachuk ranks 10th among regular forwards this season in goals per game, trailing Boston’s David Pastrnak only slightly. He is landing nearly 4.8 shots for every 20 minutes of ice time, a rate that is second in the league behind Pastrnak again. Ottawa’s captain also averaged 20:29 per night in ice time in November, a mark that is over a full minute higher than what he did in October. That level of ice time for a shooter like this means a very, very high peripheral floor.
Going into Columbus is a good matchup for Tkachuk. In November alone, the Blue Jackets finished 25th by expected goals against per minute at 5-on-5 and 28th by actual goals against. The standout was their penalty kill which gave up just two goals in 15 games. The key there is the team got a .963 save percentage from their goalies while short-handed, a number that screams heavy regression; the league average is over 100 points lower. Ottawa is drawing the most power plays per game this season, so it is a good chance to get in on the ground floor of that regression.
Ottawa’s top winger leads Stokastic’s fantasy projections for all wingers on either site tonight. He is also being priced as the most expensive winger, though, so the value isn’t as high on the centers listed above. Regardless, with so much value across the slate, it is hard to ignore a player with a floor as high as he has in any format tonight, whether by himself or as part of a Senators stack.
Drake Batherson (OTT at CBJ): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $5,900
Batherson started the season slowly with just one goal in his first nine games but has come alive of late with five goals and eight points in his last eight games. That stretch has seen him average three shots per game, too, so it’s not only that his shooting percentage has risen, but he’s shooting a lot more often, too. In fact, Tkachuk was the only Ottawa forward to have a higher shots-per-minute rate than Batherson did in the month of November.
A big key for Batherson tonight is getting Tim Stützle as his center. Over the last two seasons, the team is scoring 3.1 goals/60 minutes at 5-on-5 with that duo on the ice, while that number plummets to 1.9 goals/60 when Batherson is without the star center. This winger remains on the top power play unit, too, so his fantasy profile is getting a boost for tonight.
Among all wingers priced under $6,000 on either site tonight, Batherson is second by fantasy point projection and that gives him solid point-per-dollar value. Given his power play correlation with Stützle, using at least the two of them in tournament stacks is likely the better approach, though Batherson can have a great night by himself thanks to his goal-scoring upside.
Fabian Zetterlund (SJ at NJ): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $4,400
Over San Jose’s last 10 games, Zetterlund is averaging 19:40 per night in ice time, third among the team’s forwards and tops among their wingers. This winger also led the team in shots per minute in the month of November, clearing the next-closest player by over 10%. It pushed him to 2.6 shots on goal per game in that span, even hitting the DraftKings shot bonus twice. He had just six points in 14 games because this is still the worst team in the league, but he’s getting ice time and shooting. Small wins and all that.
Skating on the second line, Zetterlund should avoid the aforementioned Hischier-Bratt duo at 5-on-5, which is New Jersey’s best defensive line. The home side is also on a back-to-back, and New Jersey has given up 15 goals in four games this season when on the second game of a back-to-back. Overall, the Devils are 29th in goals against per minute this season as poor goaltending is once again plaguing this team.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Zetterlund leads all San Jose wingers in fantasy point projection tonight. It is hard to rely on this team for offensive success, but Zetterlund has been an occasional bright spot for him and his price makes him a good value option on either site.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Thomas Chabot (OTT at CBJ): DraftKings – $4,900 | FanDuel – $5,000
Chabot returns to the lineup for Ottawa and it’s great news for the team. Out of their regular defensemen over the last two seasons, Chabot has the second-highest on-ice goal rate (nearly 3.0/60 at 5-on-5), trailing only Jakob Chychrun (who only has 29 Ottawa games played). In the four games leading to his broken hand in October, Chabot had three assists, 13 shots, and eight blocks. He was finding his stride offensively and then he missed five weeks.
Among all defencemen tonight, Chabot ranks third by fantasy point projection on the two sites tonight. At his reasonable price, he’s likely to exceed 20% ownership in many contests, but there are only so many top options to turn to on a short slate. He can be used in all formats.
John Marino (NJ vs. SJ): DraftKings – $2,700 | FanDuel – $4,300
Defenseman Dougie Hamilton missed last night’s Devils game due to injury and though we don’t have confirmation, it seems probable he will miss this game as well. With him out of the lineup, Marino was over 23 minutes in last night’s win. It was his second-highest ice time mark this campaign and the highest since Halloween. He is not one to put up much for peripherals with 13 shots and 27 blocks in 21 games, but he does have 10 points, and New Jersey has one of the best matchups in the league tonight.
On DraftKings, Stokastic projections have Marino at the top of the list for the sub-$3,000 blue line cohort. It gives him tremendous value, though his cheap price and improved usage is likely to draw ownership. He also leads the way on FanDuel for those priced under $4,500, but his point-per-dollar value is less where he’s (relatively) more expensive.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Joonas Korpisalo (OTT at CBJ): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $8,100
Ottawa’s game in Columbus marks Korpisalo’s return to face the team that drafted him in 2012 and for whom he appeared in over 200 games. In the 10 games he has started and finished this season, Korpisalo has faced at least 38 shots in six of them. That is a lot of shot volume against, and his opponent tonight is averaging the 9th-most shot attempts per minute. Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has him 3rd by expected goals allowed of the four goalies tonight, and the mix of volume and reasonable goals against gives him the second-best point-per-dollar value. His price on DK makes him an option in all formats tonight, though the elevated price on FD makes him a worse value on that site. He still has the second highest FanDuel projection, though, so he’s acceptable across the industry.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NJPP: Tyler Toffoli – Jack Hughes – Alex Holtz
This isn’t officially in the Top Stacks tool, but it is worth mentioning. Holtz was moved to New Jersey’s top power play unit last night in place of Bratt. The power play scored once on its two opportunities after that move, so it seems likely they will go back to it tonight. Hughes and Toffoli are known high-end fantasy (super)stars, but it’s Holtz that leads the team in points per minute at 5-on-5 this season. He also leads the healthy non-Hughes/Toffoli forwards in shots per minute at 5-on-5. Getting top PP time boosts his fantasy profile even more, and he’s much cheaper in DFS than the other regular top PP options (DK: $3,300; FD: $4,200).
Hughes and Toffoli are first and third, respectively, among Stokastic’s fantasy point projections on both sites for skaters. Holtz has a top-3 projection for wingers below $4,000 on DK and $4,500 on FD. There is a lot of upside to this trio, and can be used in a power play stack for tournaments along with Hischier and Luke Hughes.
CBJ3: Yegor Chinakhov – Dmitri Voronkov – Kirill MarchenkoÂ
With the return of Kent Johnson, Columbus has assembled their all-Russian line. The duo of Voronkov-Marchenko has been excellent offensively this season, creating 3.7 expected goals and 4.3 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. This trio may not earn much ice time – they are a third line, after all – but their cheap price means they don’t need a lot to go right to have good DFS value tonight.
The Top Stacks tool has this trio with positive leverage on DK tonight, coming in with a 4.8% top-2 stack probability against just 3.1% ownership. For DFS players stacking expensive (and highly-owned) options from Ottawa or New Jersey, this is a filler stack that will have both low ownership and a reasonable chance of success.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
