This week the Scottish Open will play as an official PGA tournament for the second time. The event has 75 of the top players from both the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour to make up a field composed of 156 golfers. A few big names have chosen to skip the tournament, including Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, but overall the field is the strongest this event has ever seen.
The links nature of the course makes predicting who will come out on top a little more of a tricky proposition. Wind and wave splits can play a huge part in who prospers in links golf. For PGA DFS, expect the European Tour regulars to get a slight bump in the large DFS contests. Several players from the DP World Tour are coming in with solid form and are cheap on DraftKings. There could even be heavy ownership on a few names who have rarely, if ever, excelled against a true PGA field.
Below, we will go through a few of the best fade and pivot spots for PGA DFS lineup building, with a focus on large-field GPPs with top-heavy prizes. As always, we will use Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and PGA DFS ownership projections.
PGA DFS Fades & Pivots | Genesis Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club Run Stats and Info
- Par 71, 7,294 yards; features four par 5’s and five par 3’s, making it a non-traditional par-71 layout.
- 2021 winner Min Woo Lee gained over four strokes around the greens and putting. He was lowest ranked in off-tee metrics but had solid approach stats; Xander Schauffele gained over 5.7 strokes on approach in 2022.
- The winner at this venue has been between 22 under par and 7 under par in the last three years it has hosted the event (between 2018 to 2021); weather plays a huge factor in how the course will play.
- Some heavier winds are expected on the weekend this year; solid ball strikers may be key on Saturday and Sunday if betting in play or playing showdown DFS.
2023 Genesis Scottish Open PGA DFS Fades and Pivots
High-Range PGA DFS Fade: Sungjae Im
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 8.8%
This is a tight range in terms of PGA DFS projections, but because of that, it is important to scrutinize every move a little harder. Im seems to be one of the more popular plays in this range and coming off a couple of meh starts, it’s hard to see why. His ball striking has been underwhelming since the beginning of the season, and he’s really only been saved by his putter his last two made cuts, which still amounted to him finishing outside the top 20. That trend of him putting well could continue in Scotland, but it’s not worth chasing, especially not with so many other quality names around him. Im also has some of the worst Open Championship and links course history at the top end of the field for and wasn’t able to make the cut at the Renaissance last season. Given that the ownership looks very flat in the higher-$8,000 range, Im doesn’t need to be a priority for player pools and makes for a solid fade candidate regardless of field size.
High-Range Pivot: Max Homa
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 7.2%
If taking a shot in this range for the week, why not do it with a player who will be less popular but flashed far better upside in his last start? Homa was coming into the Rocket Mortgage off two missed cuts but was able to right the ship Detroit, landing a 16th-place finish for the week. Homa’s start in Detroit was more like the Max Homa from the start of the season, as he was dominant in his ball striking, gaining 7.4 strokes on approach and off the tee for the week. He won at another coastal stop in Torrey Pines in January, and he came over to Scotland early in 2022 and finished a tidy 16th. Despite a little summer lull, Homa is still projecting strongly on Stokastic, with the best PGA DFS projections of any player under $9,000. It’s an easy click to roster him at this price, especially when his ownership is projected to stay under that vaunted 10% mark.
Mid-Range PGA DFS Fade: Ludvig Aberg
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 17.9%
Aberg looked great in his last start. He elevated his iron game and managed to rebound on Sunday after a poor Saturday took him out of contention. The fourth-place finish at the John Deere will help Aberg pad his FedEx points, and as the summer goes on, it’s likely he will get in contention again soon. It’s hard to say if this will be the week he pops for his first win, but the change in course to a tricky links venue doesn’t feel like it will help him keep up the momentum. Despite being European, Aberg has not taken on these kinds of pure links setups yet, and the Renaissance is a spot where his power may get de-emphasized given the fact there are five par 3’s. Aberg’s iron game proved to be more elite last week, but with fewer chances to take his best weapon (driver) out of the bag, he’ll likely be hard-pressed to put up another strong finish.
Mid-Range Pivot: Justin Thomas
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 9.9%
It won’t feel great, but clicking on Justin Thomas’ name in this spot might be a great way to get contrarian in GPPs. His price has dropped so far down on DraftKings ($8,300) that, even with his terrible starts in Detroit and at the U.S. Open, Thomas is still getting a little bit of love from the people. He is just one start removed from a ninth at the Travelers that saw him gain 7.2 strokes on approach, and as a winner at the Honda and the defunct CIMB Classic, he will not get gun-shy in windy conditions. Thomas’ ownership will likely spike again if he plays well, but with him being this cheap and still just 10% in PGA DFS ownership projections, it is a great time to buy back and get overweight on him in larger-field GPPs.
Low-End PGA DFS Fade: Alexander Bjork
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 22.9%
Bjork is a solid European Tour regular. His strength is his iron play and short game, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he popped, especially if the wind stays down. However, the truth is, as solid as Bjork is, he’s never done anything against a field like the quality of the one he’ll be facing. Despite being 33, he has one European Tour win and he’s never made a cut in a major despite six career major starts. He is playing well, but the fact is Bjork is trending for ownership that has him destined to be a top-5-owned player in larger fields. The PGA DFS projections like plenty of other in-form European Tour regulars just as much as Bjork, so paying for 20%-plus ownership doesn’t make a lick of sense. He is a fade in large-field GPPs on this basis alone.
Low-End Pivot: Nicolai Hojgaard
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 7.8%
It has been a tough go for Hojgaard this summer on the PGA. He finished second earlier in the season at Corales but could only manage a 33rd in Mexico and then promptly missed cuts in Canada and at the Memorial. Hojgaard is talented, though and was able to turn things around in his last start in Detroit, where he grabbed a share of 17th place for the week. More encouraging is the fact that the finish in Detroit was built off the back of an above-average long game, which saw him gain 4.5 strokes ball striking for the week. There is no doubt he carries some risk, but remember that his best finish on the PGA prior to this week came at another very open, coastal venue in Corales. Hojgaard is still projecting for one of the best top-6 probabilities in this range on Stokastic, yet he feels like a forgotten man at this point at under 8% projected ownership, making him an ideal pivot to look to off the more popular Bjork.
