It’s hard to believe we’ve already reached Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season. There are still plenty more opportunities to make some money in NFL DFS, though, so let’s dive into Stokastic’s player projections and boom and bust data to see which of the top NFL DFS running backs and fades, including Christian McCaffrey, we should be considering for lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 11
Initial Week 11 NFL player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel have been loaded up on Stokastic. Let’s see what the data is showing at various price ranges ahead of kickoff this Sunday.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 11 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Though he didn’t have a ceiling performance last week, Christian McCaffrey is once again near the top of Week 11 NFL DFS player projections and boom and bust probabilities at Stokastic.
At the running back spot, McCaffrey ($9,300) has the second-highest boom probability on DraftKings behind only Devin Singletary ($5,300) for a Sunday meeting with the Buccaneers. His boom percentage is at 13.5% and he’s currently hitting 15% of optimal lineups based on Stokastic’s simulations.
Glancing over the Christian McCaffrey NFL Week 11 odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper, his total rushing/receiving yards prop is up at 100.5 combined yards on some of the top NFL betting sites. He’s at -210 to hit the end zone at any point and is at +250 to score two or more touchdowns against Tampa Bay.
Devin Singletary, Houston Texans
Stokastic’s optimal lineup rates are another useful data point to consider when building daily fantasy football lineups for Week 11. At time of writing, the aforementioned Devin Singletary is included in 28.2% of DraftKings optimal lineups at $5,300 on DraftKings and in 24.1% of optimals at $6,500 on FanDuel.
Singletary currently has a high boom probability of 23.2% on DraftKings for this Sunday’s favorable on-paper matchup against Arizona, though that number drops down to 14.2% on FanDuel. Fellow back Dameon Pierce returned to practice this week but is not ready to return, and that’s obviously a big bump to Singletary if he can once again assume the lion’s share of the work.
The OddsShopper prop pages for Week 11 show Singletary with an anytime TD line of -120 ahead of a home encounter with the Cardinals. Houston has one of the highest implied team totals of the week (26) and is favored by four points, and Singletary just posted easily his best performance of the 2023 season in Week 10 against the Bengals.
Other running backs that are grading out favorably in DraftKings RB projections at this point in the week include Travis Etienne Jr., Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones and James Conner among others.
Make sure to look through all of the running back data to see what else stands out in Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections.
NFL DFS Fades | Week 11 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Boom and bust probabilities measure how likely players are to meet their respective ceilings and floors relative to their median projections.
For Week 11, let’s find out who may be sitting near the bottom of the pack as far as NFL DFS value goes.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As of Friday, Rachaad White owns one of the higher bust probabilities at the running back position for Week 11’s game against the 49ers. White has a 55.3% bust probability at a salary of $6,000 on DraftKings (1.1% boom) and a 48.5% bust probability and 0.9% boom probability at $6,600 on FanDuel.
It’s been a nice four-game stretch for White, who has logged at least 15.9 DraftKings points in each of the last four weeks. In Week 9 he went off for 27.9 DK points and then followed that up with 97 total yards and a touchdown last weekend versus the Titans. Nonetheless, it’s not looking like the best of weeks to target White if early-week NFL DFS projections are anything to go by.
For Week 11’s action, White’s odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper shows his rushing yards prop trading at 44.5 and his receiving yards line is at 22.5. His anytime touchdown odds are at +185 for Week 11’s matchup with San Francisco.
As usual, there is injury news we are waiting on, so it will be crucial to continue to monitor any updates that come in all the way through Sunday to see if better NFL DFS picks and running back values open up before lock.
We should also remember that accurate NFL DFS player projections are just one piece of the daily fantasy football puzzle and that other factors like ownership projections, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
More Stokastic Week 11 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
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NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
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