Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 4

The running back position has some great value plays and spend-ups this week. Pricing, ownership and projections are becoming more efficient, as team’s play style and depth charts are becoming clearer. Let’s dive into the top NFL DFS running back picks and fades for Week 4, using Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections. The projections are especially high on Rachaad White.

Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 4

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NFL DFS Running Back Picks for Week 4

Rachaad White, Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a tough road test this week against the New Orleans Saints and their staunch defense. The Bucs have a low implied team total of 17.5 points, but that isn’t stopping Rachaad White from getting an elite point-per-dollar projection on DraftKings and FanDuel. White has taken over Tampa’s backfield, getting the vast majority of snaps in the run and pass game. White has yet to have a breakout performance, but he’s carried at least 14 times every week, chipping in at least two catches in each as well.

White projects for 15.55 fantasy points on DraftKings and 13.05 on FanDuel. The number is boosted a bit on DraftKings because White’s role in the pass game gives him increased opportunities on their full-PPR format. At $5,600, White’s fantasy point projection makes him the second-best value play on the NFL DFS main slate on DraftKings. He checks in as the sixth-best value at the running back position on FanDuel, where he’s priced at $6,900. The key for White is the ownership. There’s a surfeit of running backs in the price range that rank as slightly worse value plays than White but who are getting more ownership. White is picking up 12.2% and 12.9% ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.

Miles Sanders, Panthers

This Sunday’s NFL DFS main slate is the second week in a row that Miles Sanders checks in as a top running back option. In fact, at $5,800 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel, Sanders is the top point-per-dollar DFS play on both sites. The Carolina Panthers are one of the weaker teams in the league, but they have the benefit of hosting the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. The Vikings are 0-3, mostly due to a lackluster defense that can’t hold a candle to their offense’s output. The Panthers have an implied team total just north of 20.5 points, boosting the projection of playmakers like Sanders.

Sanders projects for 16.99 fantasy points on DraftKings and 15.7% ownership. He projects for 14.6 points on FanDuel and 22.1% ownership. It appears the field is recognizing the value on Sanders given those ownership projections. However, NFL DFS players tend to move off bad teams, so don’t be surprised to see the ownership check in a bit lower when the cards are flipped over on Sunday afternoon. Regardless of where Sanders’ rostership rate ends up, he’s a top value and chalk worth considering this week.

NFL DFS Running Back Fades for Week 4

Kyren Williams, Rams

The Rams shocked the world 10 minutes before lock in Week 2 when they announced Cam Akers was being let go and Kyren Williams would take over as their starting rusher. NFL DFS players rushed to get Williams into their lineups as the new de facto top value play on the slate. The late news kept Williams at just 5% to 10% ownership in most contests, and he went on to score two touchdowns in a monster fantasy performance. The world has caught on, and Williams is now getting plenty of attention, making him one of the chalkier backs for Week 4’s NFL DFS main slate.

The playing time and price are there for Williams, but the projection just doesn’t warrant the looks he’s getting from players this week. Williams is $6,000 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel, which are lofty price tags for his projection.

Williams projects for 14.75 and 12.87 points on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. The projection has Williams barely scratching the top 10 value plays on DraftKings and outside the top 10 point-per-dollar plays on FanDuel. That said, it isn’t stopping the field from getting to Williams. He is currently picking up 17.7% ownership on DraftKings and a whopping 21.1% on FanDuel. There are plenty of backs in the same price range or cheaper than Williams that project better at lower ownership. Take the price and ownership discount on those other NFL DFS running backs this week.

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Tony Pollard, Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys looked like one of the best teams in the league until last week when they laid an egg against the Arizona Cardinals. Dallas’ offense simply couldn’t produce in the red zone, killing drives with turnovers and penalties. They entered last week with a 28.5-point implied team total but failed to live up to expectations. They host the New England Patriots this week and will be looking for redemption. They are projected for 24.5 points, and if they do score three touchdowns there’s a good chance one of them is tallied by Tony Pollard. Taking over the full-time running back duties this season, Pollard has a monster workload in this offense.

Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections definitely reflect Pollard’s potential this week. He projects for 19.75 fantasy points on DraftKings and 16.99 on FanDuel. At $7,800 and $8,400, Pollard is a top-5 value play on both sites. The problem is ownership and opportunity cost. Pollard is picking up 20.1% ownership on DraftKings and 18.9% on FanDuel. He’s the top spend-up option at a running back position with great values this week. There’s more volatility in the projection of the backs in the $5,000 to $6,000 range, but if you hit on them the right ones, you’ll be in a strong position to spend salary elsewhere. Most backs have the same ceiling as Pollard, so it’s a question of locking in those averages. On this Sunday’s Week 4 NFL DFS main slate, it’s worth looking at the cheaper value plays at the running back spot.