Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 5

Backfield playing time and depth charts are starting to round into shape, allowing DFS projections to become even more efficient. That said, there are still some spots to find an edge. Let’s dive into the top NFL DFS running back picks and fades for Week 5, using Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections. The projections are especially high on Alvin Kamara.

Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 5

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NFL DFS Running Back Picks for Week 5

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry is seeing his role reduced in 2023 after spending several years as the bell cow in the Tennessee Titans backfield. The reduction in snaps makes sense. Henry will turn thirty years old in January and is in his 8th season in the league. Tennessee has begun to work in Tyjae Spears, especially on passing downs. But despite the negatives for Henry there is still plenty to like in this spot against the Indianapolis Colts. They have just over a 21-point implied team total in a game with a tight spread. It’s leading Henry to pop in Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections, but the field may not be catching on.

Henry projects for 18.6 fantasy points on DraftKings and 16.21 on FanDuel, That makes him the second highest projected running back on the NFL DFS Week 5 slate on DK and the 6th best point-per-dollar value at his $7,500 price tag. At $9,000 on FanDuel, rostering Henry is a little tougher, but he still comes in as a top ten value play on the site. The solid numbers on Henry stand out, but the field is only getting to him 13.4% and 11.6% of the time on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Henry might be on the decline in his career, but the metrics look strong heading into the weekend.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints got Alvin Kamara back last week and he made a major NFL DFS impact. Kamara’s real life numbers weren’t gaudy, but he had an incredible day from a volume perspective. He rushed for 51 yards and caught a whopping thirteen balls on fourteen targets. Those throws were essentially running plays, with Kamara picking up just 33 yards on the receptions. However, the point-per-reception got there for players on DraftKings and wasn’t too bad in the half point per reception format on FanDuel.

It’s hard to see Kamara catching that many balls again in Week 5, but the projection and salary still makes sense in this spot. Kamara is $6,300 on DraftKings with a 17.45 average projection. He comes in at $7,100 on FanDuel and is projected for 14.8 fantasy points. The projection make Kamara the 4th highest running back for NFL DFS on DraftKings and he ranks 5th on FanDuel. Those are solid projections given Kamara’s ownership. He’s picking up 17.3% and 17.6% ownership on DK and FD, respectively.

NFL DFS Running Back Fades for Week 5

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have fully committed to Kyren Williams after cutting Cam Akers just minutes before lock in Week 2. The surprise news on Akers made Williams one of the best value plays on that slate, and has remained so every week since. Unfortunately, Week 5 could be different now that Williams’ price tag is catching up to his production. Williams is getting there from a projection perspective, but his $6,700 salary on DraftKingsand $7,800 FanDuel is a lot to pay for the newly minted starter.

Williams just isn’t getting the love in Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections that the field thinks he deserves. He’s projected for 14.52 fantasy points on DraftKings and 12.78 on FanDuel. That is keeping him outside of the top ten point-per-dollar plays on both sites. However, Williams is pegged for 12.6% ownership on DK and 15.8% on FanDuel. That’s just too much chalk to eat with so many well projected pivots at the running back position in Week 5.

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Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon is a popular name this week. The Cincinnati Bengals finally got in the win column in Week 4 and they have a soft matchup in Week 5 versus the Arizona Cardinals. It’s a game environment that could work wonders for Mixon. There may even be a slight boost to Mixon’s projection coming from the absence of Tee Higgins if the Bengals use their running game for some high probability short passes. The problem is the field is seeing this, as well. Mixon is picking up significant scheme heading into the weekend.

The Bengals’ lead back is projected for 17.67 and 15.2 fantasy points on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. He’s a great point-per-dollar value, as well. Mixon’s $6,400 salary on DK and $7,000 salary makes him the 2nd best value play and neck-and-neck with Alvin Kamara from a value perspective. The problem is Mixon is getting 23.1% ownership on DraftKings and 26% ownership on FanDuel. Those numbers are incredibly high given the lower rates of ownership on all the backs in his range.