The San Francisco 49ers host the Green Bay Packers in Week 9 of Thursday Night Football. The Packers are 7.5-point favorites and the game has a 48-point total. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All daily fantasy football picks and showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Thursday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel | San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
Showdown Captain
Davante Adams
Anecdotally, Davante Adams has one of the best odds of being the top play in the history of the Top Showdown Plays. He’s also going to be roughly as popular in the Captain spot as his odds indicate he should be. Despite missing nearly half a game early in the year, Adams’ 33.1% target share is first in the NFL. His 34.2% air yards share is 12th in the NFL. Because he gets some much volume from one of the best touchdown throwers in the NFL, Adams has seven scores in five games. He’s the chalk at Captain and deservedly so.
Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have a 27.75 implied team total and may be onto their fourth-string running back. If that leads to an increased number of dropbacks for him, it should be a blowup spot. Rodgers is No. 4 in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt (9.1) and No. 10 in touchdown rate (8%). Quarterbacks have historically seen an uptick in usage at Captain when totals are higher. The 48-point total puts him into consideration at Captain, but Adams’ market share numbers do make it difficult for Rodgers to reach the top without propelling Adams ahead of him.
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Aaron Jones
Update: Aaron Jones is active but may not get the bulk of the work. Tyler Ervin could split snaps with him while Dexter Williams gets in sporadically.
The Packers opened the week pessimistic that Aaron Jones would play, but he did log a limited practice and has yet to be ruled out. There will be concerns of a snap count for him if he does play, but he was averaging 15 carries and 5.6 targets per game before getting injured. Jones was also posting over 100 yards from scrimmage and 1.4 touchdowns per game. If he is active, Jones would be a solid contrarian play with a low floor.
JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon
Update: NBC Sports’ Matt Maiocco believes McKinnon will only be “seeing some spot duty as a third-down back.” That puts Hasty in line for a larger workload than expected.
Instead of listing who the 49ers won’t have because of injuries and COVID tonight, it’s easier to list off who they do have:
#49ers available offensive starters for Thursday's game vs. Packers:
FB Kyle Juszcyk
RT Mike McGlinchey
RG Daniel Brunskill
LG Laken Tomlinson— Eric Branch (@Eric_Branch) November 5, 2020
That’s four normal starters available, three of whom are lineman. With their top-three backs out for this week, Jamycal Hasty is projected to be the primary runner. Jerick McKinnon got two starts early in the year and saw over 20 opportunities in both games. He hasn’t hit double-digit looks since. Hasty, on the other hand, has averaged 10 carries per game over his previous three contests. Being a touchdown underdog isn’t great for Hasty because he only has two catches over that span. Kyle Shanahan could ultimately commit to Hasty out of necessity because of how bereft of talent his team is at receiver.
Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Nick Mullens
There are so many cheap options available on this slate that double-quarterback is a fairly easy lineup to get to. Nick Mullens himself is only $9,200 and hasn’t performed well when called upon. He has 11 games with at least 15 pass attempts in his career. Mullens has scored multiple times in five of those games and has hit 250 passing yards in seven of them. His upside relative to most of the Packers’ premier players is limited, but as a cheap quarterback, Mullens is worth aggressively playing in the Flex. High totals also benefit those playing two quarterbacks based on a year and a half of winning lineups:
- 0 QB – 32.1 final total
- 1 QB – 44.7
- 2 QB – 48.65
Packers Receivers
Update: Allen Lazard will not play. Valdes-Scantling should continue to stretch the field and the underlying volume has been there for him with Lazard out.
Allen Lazard‘s status is not known yet, but he should be expected to take over as the No. 2 receiver upon returning. Both receivers had 17 targets through three weeks, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been wildly inefficient this year. His 7.5 yards per target are No. 72 among receivers, and he is sixth in unrealized air yards. The Packers have been attempting to throw to their No. 2 all year, but Valdes-Scantling has been unable to come down with much. The role is valuable, and inserting Lazard into that role makes him extremely valuable. If he isn’t active, Valdes-Scantling once again becomes a solid stacking option with Rodgers.
Tyler Ervin is listed as a running back on DraftKings. He switched to receiver earlier in the year but could move back if Jones is out. Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon will both be inactive because of COVID-19 concerns. Ervin would make an interesting pivot off of Williams but projects to see far fewer carries than him.
49ers Receivers
The 49ers only have two receivers on their active roster but can call up a number of practice squad players to replenish their ranks. In order of the number of targets they should see:
- Trent Taylor is the only active pass catcher with a target on the season and should play on every snap, making him the best play.
- Richie James is active but has not been targeted this year, but he does have a handful of offensive snaps and 24 targets in the previous two seasons.
- Kevin White logged two offensive snaps in Week 5 but was sent to the practice squad soon after.
- River Cracraft has two career targets, both of which he logged in 2018.
- Chris Finke is the least likely to be called up at all.
Taylor is an easy play at $400 and our highest-projected San Francisco receiver.
Robert Tonyan
Robert Tonyan has run a route 65.9% of Rodgers’ dropbacks this year and is averaging 4.5 targets per game. He’ll need to score a touchdown to make the optimal lineup, but he is worth a few dart throws.
Wanna bet?
With the San Francisco 49ers team seemingly totally decimated by injuries, Robert Tonyan could be a great play in daily fantasy football on DraftKings and FanDuel. However, he could be a good bet when it comes to the sports betting market as well. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for Thursday Night Football.
49ers Tight Ends
Update: Jordan Reed was activated and will play.
Jordan Reed appears set to return from injured reserve and was productive before going down with a knee injury. He saw 14 targets in Weeks 2 and 3. Reed also scored twice in Week 2. Ross Dwelley could play over him because Reed is coming back from an injury, but San Francisco will likely opt to play both tight ends frequently. Reed’s target totals in his brief time as the primary pass-catching tight end make him the preferred choice, but both are in play.
Defense and Kicker
With so much value present on this slate, it’s difficult to find the need to get to a low-ceiling option like a defense or kicker. The Packers are facing a team comprised almost entirely of backups, but they cost $5,200. The upside of scoring a touchdown increases versus this version of San Francisco and their elevated price could keep their ownership in check. Both teams are bottom five in field goal attempts per game.
Lower-Owned Daily Fantasy Football Picks
The $200 players on this slate are the starters, so there aren’t many stones unturned at this price range. Kyle Juszczyk could go overlooked because he doesn’t directly benefit from all of the chaos on the San Francisco roster. The team could still use him more frequently out of necessity, and he is averaging 1.8 targets and 0.9 carries per game this year.
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