The Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown delivers the stats and storylines you need to dominate the week in fantasy football. Matt Savoca breaks down all the angles on every team and every game, including the first Chargers game in 16 seasons without Philip Rivers as a member of the team, and the first look at No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 16 games on tap for Week 1 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Lets get into Chargers – Bengals.
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Chargers (23.5) at Bengals (20.5) – Sunday 9/13/2020, 4:05 p.m.
Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
With the departure of longtime quarterback Phillip Rivers, Chargers coach Anthony Lynn reunites with quarterback Tyrod Taylor at the helm (with first-round pick Justin Herbert waiting in the wings). The tandem of Lynn and Taylor spent the better part of two seasons in Buffalo (Lynn took over in Week 3 of Taylor’s second season as starter) manning a conservative, run-first scheme. From 2015-2017, the years in which Taylor was the Bills starting quarterback, they never ranked lower than fourth in team rush attempts and were first in team rush yards for two out of the three seasons. They may not have the same appeal as Lamar Jackson’s rush-happy Ravens, but Taylor and Lynn’s Chargers are likely to produce yards on the ground better than league average.
LeSean McCoy enjoyed some of the most productive years of his career during the same time period, averaging over 99 total yards and 0.63 touchdowns per game, earning three straight trips to the Pro Bowl. Taylor himself was solid on the ground, averaging 36 yards on six rushes during that three year span. This would indicate a solid floor for Taylor due to his rushing and a solid median projection (and high ceiling) for starting running back Austin Ekeler, as Taylor should continue to rely on him as an essential part of the passing game (Rivers targeted running backs on 32% of passes in 2019 compared to Taylor’s 26% in 2017).
Taylor’s mobility should be particularly effective against a Cincinnati defense that finished in the bottom five in rushing DVOA a season ago. Jackson, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray averaged 12.0 fantasy points on the ground alone in 2019 in five games against the Bengals last year. Though we should expect improvement on defense for the Bengals after their acquisitions of Vonn Bell, Josh Bynes and D.J. Reader, expect scrambles and designed quarterbacks rushes to be a highly utilized asset for Lynn, Taylor and company.
Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
Sunday marks the NFL debut for the 2020 No. 1 overall pick, Joe Burrow, who has a bevy of high-quality skill players at his disposal. It will be exciting to see how coach Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan deploy their skill players in this revamped and reinvigorated Bengals pass attack. Former Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Green is slated to return to the field after missing all of last season with foot and leg issues. Though he’s missed significant time lately (playing in only 54% of the Bengals’ games the last four seasons), when Green plays, he’s been nothing short of spectacular, averaging over 70 receiving yards and 0.6 touchdowns on nearly nine targets per game since 2017.
In Green’s absence, Tyler Boyd solidified himself as the team’s target magnet (9.2 per game in 2019) but lacked touchdown upside in Cincinnati’s inefficient 2019 offense. That should change this season, as the Bengals project to have significantly more red zone trips, even with the rookie Burrow likely to experience the typical ups-and-downs of a quarterback’s rookie year. Contested catch specialist (No. 20 in the NFL) Auden Tate, speedster John Ross and 33rd overall pick Tee Higgins round out an exciting group of auxiliary weapons for Burrow. Expect plenty of three- and four-receiver sets (and plenty of pass routes for running backs) as Cincinnati adopts portions of the LSU offense that allowed Burrow to shine. Greater than 27 points, even in a losing effort, is going to be in this team’s range of outcomes each week, though a matchup with the pace-controlling Chargers may not be the game where we see that occur.
Joe Mixon, fresh off a $48 million deal that keeps him in a Bengals uniform for the next half-decade, is the unquestioned workhorse of the Cincinnati backfield. Brian Callahan referred to Mixon as a “volume carrier” this preseason, indicating the team has a predefined amount of touches intended for Mixon on a weekly basis. Giovani Bernard will continue to operate as a spell back but has a realistic ceiling of 10 touches, even in the most negative game scripts. Mixon’s a lock for 18 touches and four targets, making him a rock-solid RB1 in fantasy football.
Prediction: Chargers 27, Bengals 23
Alternative scenario: The defenses dominate, and both quarterbacks struggle in a slow-paced slog. Chargers 20, Bengals 17.
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