Just like the NBA Boom Bust tool before it, the NFL Boom Bust Tool has been instrumental to the lineup building process amongst subscribers this season. Developed by the data team at Awesemo, including Alex Baker himself, this tool makes it simple to identify under-utilized plays for Sunday’s main slate — as well highlight which players are most likely to fail. Simply group players based on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom), the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust) and compare those scores to their likelihood of making the optimal lineup. With that in mind, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions for Week 7 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Using this tool is imperative when constructing DFS NFL lineups today.
Week 7 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom Bust Top Plays & Fades
Top Quarterback to Boom: Jalen Hurts
Despite condensed fantasy scoring at the quarterback position from week-to-week, there’s an abundance of high-ceiling options to target on this Sunday’s slate. However, with Jalen Hurts slightly discounted from the Patrick Mahomes’ and Lamar Jackson’s of the world at $6,900 on DraftKings, the Eagles signal-caller projects out with the best chances to boom on the slate at 12.8%. His road matchup versus a Raiders team that PFF grades out as the ninth-best defense in the league might not be all that enticing to some, but his rushing floor/ceiling combination makes him equipped to boom in far more matchups than most. Plus, with an optimal appearance rate near 14%, his 11% ownership makes him the most positively leveraged quarterback to target according to Awesemo’s projections.
Top Quarterback to Bust: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers has routinely popped at the top of the bust tool throughout this NFL season, and it’s easy to understand why. Coming off his MVP season in 2020, Rodgers carries no rushing upside besides the random goal line touchdown here and there. Plus, with Davante Adams absorbing so much of the Packers’ offensive production, paying up for him at wide receiver and moving on with this team has routinely worked out. With only one 300-yard passing outing on the season, as well as just one two-plus touchdown performance, Rodgers’ bust percentage of 53.5% on DraftKings makes a lot of sense — something his $7,500 salary over there does not.
Top Running Back to Boom: Darrel Williams
Coming off of weeks with massive boom scores for the likes of Alexander Mattison and Kareem Hunt before lock, this Sunday’s slate is more difficult to mine out a gem. In fact, no player at the position carries higher than a 13.5% boom chance, a stark contrast to the 30%-plus scores that have appeared of late. Still, Darrel Williams makes for an intriguing target as the main back of a Chiefs team that leads the slate with a team total north of 31 points. He’s not the most positively-leveraged running back, as Leonard Fournette sports a 17.7% optimal lineup rate with just 11.8% ownership. But with the second-lowest boom percentage at 29.7%, trailing Chase Edmonds at 25.3%, Williams grades out as a high-floor/high-ceiling option.
Top Running Back to Bust: Derrick Henry
In what is sure to rub some the wrong way, Derrick Henry tops the bust column of the running back position at 40.9% on DraftKings and 41.3% on FanDuel. This speaks purely to his salary-based expectations, as $9,200 and $11,000 tags on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively are numbers that are next-to-impossible to pay off point-per-dollar. So yes his expected rushing volume in a phenomenal matchup against a Chiefs defense 133.2 yards per game on the ground makes him an unquestioned high-ceiling option. But considering his current 19.5% ownership on DraftKings with just a 14.1% optimal lineup appearance rate, making other plans at the position in tournaments is something to consider.
Top Wide Receiver to Boom: Cooper Kupp
Due to the pricing faux pas by DraftKings this week, Rams receiver Cooper Kupp at $8,400 in a phenomenal spot versus an inept Lions defense is expected to carry a ton of interest. However, Awesemo’s projections have that interest level not being nearly high enough by the public, as he currently carries a slate-high optimal appearance rate of 23.8% and yet just 16.2% ownership. He also leads the entire slate in boom chances (31.4%) while simultaneously carrying the lowest bust chances (23.6%), making Kupp a no-brainer option for every format on Sunday.
Top Wide Receiver to Bust: DeAndre Hopkins
While the Arizona Cardinals are off to a blazing 6-0 start, the same cannot be said for their star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Averaging just 61.2 receiving yards per game, which would be his lowest mark since 2016, fantasy scoring has been way down for Hopkins with the involvement of multiple other receiving options, coupled with competent ground game behind James Conner and Edmonds. That’s reflected in his 52.8% bust chances on Sunday’s slate, making him a far more unappealing option than in years past. And considering his just 5.1% boom potential, it would be wise to pivot to nearly every other wide receiver in his range to find better leverage.
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