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Bills vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Football Showdown Game Breakdown & NFL DFS Picks




Best NFL betting picks for Conference Championship between Bengals vs. Chiefs | Expert player props & predictions

Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 5 Sunday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 5 Bills vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Football matchup.

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Week 5 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

The 3-1 Bills head back to Arrowhead Stadium, the site of their AFC Championship game loss a season ago, carrying a ton of momentum after a 41-0 romp of the lowly Texans. Meanwhile, the Chiefs spent Week 4 course-correcting after an uncharacteristic 1-2 start to the season. They too put up 40-plus points, as the Eagles had no answer for Patrick Mahomes. With overcast skies and a slight chance of rain, there is a possibility this game could turn into a defensive battle, but that is highly unlikely with these two offenses.

The Explosion Game is Coming for Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs currently ranks outside the top 20 wide receivers in the NFL in fantasy points per game, and yet the opportunity has been enormous within one of the league’s top offenses. Diggs has seen eight or more targets in every game this season, and he has seen double-digit looks in three of his last four games. He ranks top 10 in the NFL in deep targets, red zone targets, targets per route-run and total air yards. Stay the course, and in single-game slates, continue start Diggs with confidence in the Captain spot in tournaments, pairing him with Allen.

Dawson Knox Is Not a Priority Play

Part of the reason Diggs’ monster performances have not come yet is the high-quality play of the rest of the Bills receiving corps. Dawson Knox in particular has been a surprising addition. Knox has seen five-plus targets in back-to-back games and is tied with Diggs for the team lead in red-zone targets. Knox has finished inside the top 10 tight ends in fantasy scoring in each of the last two weeks, but on this one-game slate, and with so many high-ceiling weapons to choose from, Knox is not intriguing outside of the main slate. The Awesemo value rankings rate Knox as one of the worst value plays among all Flexes on FanDuel.

The Bills Backfield Is a Weekly Mess

Devin Singletary continues to lead the running backs in total touches, earning at least 11 rush attempts in each of the Bills’ first four games. But his target totals have dropped in every game this season, ceding that work to Zack Moss. Moss had been the preferred goal-line back, meaning that despite being projected for less total touches, Moss would be the preferred option on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Moss and Allen have combined for nearly 75% of the Bills rushes inside the 10-yard line.

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Higher-Scoring Quarterback Is a True Toss-Up

Mahomes ranks first at his position in QBR, expected points added, touchdowns passing and fantasy points per game. Allen ranks top three in air yards per attempt, red-zone pass attempts and red-zone carries. Their projections are within a point of one another, and they are the only two players with a 40-point ceiling. With Allen cheaper on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and the projections roughly equal, Allen seems like a slightly better value play, but differentiating between the two is particularly difficult. Every lineup in every contest should have at least one of these two.

Playing Tyreek Hill Is Not Point Chasing

The Bills defense has been excellent this season, ranking best in the NFL in PFF’s team coverage grade, but Hill is a unique weapon. He already has two double-digit-target games, and while many will see the expected absence of Bills linebacker Matt Milano as a boon for Travis Kelce, it also increases the likelihood of Hill getting open over the middle. The Awesemo projections see Hill as the preferred option over Kelce on FanDuel, but Kelce ranks just slightly ahead of Hill on DraftKings.

The Bottom Line

Despite losing to the middling Steelers in Week 1, Week 5 is the first true test for the Bills this season. The last three quarterbacks the Bills have faced are Tua Tagovailoa, Taylor Heinicke and Davis Mills. Now they have to go on the road to face the best offense in the league. For Kansas City, this is as close to a must-win game that one can have in Week 5. With the AFC West looking like one of the winningest divisions in football, and with the Chiefs’ defensive struggles, a 2-3 start could be catastrophic. From a fantasy perspective, however, the Kansas City defense’s ineptitude all but ensures a shootout this Sunday Night.

Week 5 Sunday Night Football Prediction: Chiefs 31, Bills 27

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media! We also have showdown projections and NFL DFS showdown ownership projections. View our DraftKings NFL ownership rankings and our FanDuel NFL ownership rankings. Take a look at our NFL depth chart list, inactives and starting lineups. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS tips for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL DFS rankings, and NFL DFS stacks.

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected]

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