NFL DFS Picks & Week 10 TNF DraftKings & FanDuel Showdown Lineups

Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 10 Thursday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 10 Ravens vs. Dolphins Thursday Night Football matchup.

Week 10 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Picks

The 6-2 Ravens escaped Week 9 with an overtime victory against the Vikings and now head south to Miami to take on a reeling Dolphins squad that suddenly finds itself in last place in the AFC East. Despite a victory last week against the Texans, the Miami offense has looked anemic in back-to-back weeks, scoring 17 and 11 points. It has now scored 20 points or less in four of their last five outings. They are second worst in the conference in point differential (negative-87 point), and worst of all, they are still unsure if they will have their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa active for this game. Tagovailoa missed last week with a chipped bone in his finger, and the Dolphins are waiting until kickoff to decide if he is healthy enough to play this week. If Tagovailoa is out, it will be another week of backup Jacoby Brissett under center for the Dolphins, which will not help Miami’s chances. But even with the uncertainty at quarterback, the slight blow-out potential and a middling 46.5 Vegas total, there are still a ton of great Showdown lineup options to choose from, many who can change the game with one play, making this a very exciting slate to dig into.

Stay Smart If Fading Jackson

There is not a thing to dislike about Lamar Jackson this week, as this looks like a superb matchup for the current QB2 in fantasy points per game. Jackson is leading the league in carries and yards rushing per game, but he has improved markedly as a passer, which has elevated his ceiling and the ceilings of his skill position players. Jackson ranks 11th in total QBR and 10th in expected points added, and he has had pinpoint accuracy in the red zone, ranking eighth among all quarterbacks in red-zone completion rate. The typical run-heavy Ravens have snuck up to 18th, right at league average in pass plays per game, and Jackson’s 9.8 ADOT is second highest in the NFL. Regardless of platform or Captain/MVP status, Jackson is unequivocally the strongest play on the slate. Lineups that do not utilize Jackson should position themselves around Jackson and the passing game in general failing to reach their potential. Those who think the Baltimore offense will get to their implied total should lock in Jackson.

Fire Up the Dolphins’ Big Two Receiving Options

Regardless of who is under center for Miami, the passing offense will run through two primary weapons: Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle. Waddle has already shown an ability to consistently separate from coverage, ranking 17th in average yards of separation at target, and despite ranking 25th at his position in route participation rate, Waddle is seventh in total targets with 80. He has seen 22 targets in his last two games and 43 over his last four, making him one of the strongest plays from a pure volume perspective. Especially in DraftKings full-PPR format, Waddle is a fantastic option at $8,200. Gesicki should see plenty of usage as well, as the Dolphins have been utilizing him as a glorified wide receiver in recent weeks. Gesicki ranks first among tight ends in slot snaps and top five in routes run, but he does not quite have the same target ceiling as Waddle. That does not make him a bad play, he will just likely need to be efficient on his touches to out-produce Waddle. Waddle and Gesicki have the second- and third-highest leverage scores in Awesemo’s Top Plays Tool, indicating their chance of being the optimal play currently outpaces their projected ownership.

Marquise Brown May Be Worth It at His Hefty Salary

The increased passing volume in Baltimore has been transformative for Marquise Brown, as he has seen double-digit targets in four of the Ravens’ first eight games. Brown has become a bona-fide alpha receiver this year, earning 8.6 targets per game and a 26.6% target share, 14th among all wide receivers. And the Ravens continue to make the most of Brown’s speed, as Brown leads the NFL in targets of 20 or more yards downfield. While Brown could always put up a five-target, 7-point dud a one-game slate, the more likely usage is closer to that of Weeks 7 and 9, where he saw 14 and 12 targets and led in the NFL in air yards. In Awesemo’s simulations Brown is in the optimal lineup at the highest rate of any Baltimore skill position player, and he has a positive leverage score in the Top Plays Tool.

Andrews and Bateman are Volatile but Exciting Tournament Plays

Mark Andrews has earned just 3% less of the Ravens target share compared to Brown and is tied with Brown in red-zone targets with seven. Andrews has seen at least 10 targets in two of his last four games, and he has seen at least six targets in every game since Week 3. He has a 40-point game once this season, and with the Dolphins fourth worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, there is no reason it could not happen again here. Not to be outdone, Rashod Bateman has seen six or more targets in each of the three games he has played this season, has scored 10-plus PPR fantasy points in back-to-back weeks and has not come close to hitting his ceiling score yet. Bateman could easily handle 10 to 12 targets should the Miami secondary overly focus on Brown and Andrews.

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Every Running Back Is a Dart Throw

With the possible exception of Dolphins presumed starter Myles Gaskin, the running backs in this matchup do not look particularly exciting. Gaskin has the highest ranking and is barely inside the top 10 in Awesemo’s optimal lineup percentage. The Ravens continue to use a trio of backs behind Jackson and have given valuable touches to Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell, and Ty’Son Williams over the past four weeks. No player has seen more than 23% of the team’s carries during that span. Gaskin’s usage stabilized of late, as he is averaging 20.3 opportunities per game over the last three weeks. Facing Baltimore’s run defense that surprisingly ranks 20th in PFF’s team rushing grade, he is a decent start, particularly at Flex. But Gaskin will likely cede touches to Salvon Ahmed, who has earned 25% of the team’s attempts since Week 5. If picking a Ravens running back, Awesemo likes Devonta Freeman as a large-field tournament option.

The Bottom Line

While anything can happen in a one-game slate, this one looks pretty cut and dry. Should Baltimore play even close to their capabilities, they should steamroll a Miami team that lacks weapons on both sides of the ball. Baltimore’s defense has not been as advertised this season, but they should be able to generate plenty of pressure and will certainly have the upper hand if facing Brissett. With the quarterback position in flux and Miami’s defense in the middle of the pack in just about every defensive metric, the Ravens should dominate on both sides of the ball start to finish. Make sure to build Showdown lineups accordingly.

Week 10 Thursday Night Football Prediction: Ravens 31, Dolphins 21

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Author

Matt Savoca

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].