NFL DFS Week 5 DraftKings Millionaire Maker Lineup Review and Strategy

Every week, some lucky person takes home $1 million by winning the DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest, aka The Milly Maker. The contest is $20 to enter with a maximum of 150 entries per person. I looked at a few key trends from two years of winners this summer and pulled some key trends that can be found here: Five Key Trends from Million Dollar DraftKings NFL DFS Lineups. In this series, we’ll look at what the winning lineup did each week with its NFL DFS picks on DraftKings and see if it aligns with prior trends or if there are new ways to take down the contest.

NFL DFS Week 5 DraftKings Millionaire Maker Lineup Review and Strategy

The Winning Lineup

The winning lineup in Week 5 pivoted off Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in favor of Patrick Mahomes and two of his weapons. It also featured a secondary stack of Giants players with Devonta Freeman and Darius Slayton. It did not feature a runback on either of those stacks. Lastly, it featured a tertiary stack of Robby Anderson and Todd Gurley, who faced off in a game with a 54-point total. The under was the winning play in that game, but that’s also reflected in this lineup only featuring two players from the contest.

This is the first lineup to win the Milly Maker this year without a quarterback stacked with two wide receivers and an opposing receiver. It still featured a double-stack, though. That has been a mainstay of winning lineups this year and seems increasingly mandatory to take down tournaments in the future.

This may be the lineup that draws the most claims of good luck and that’s okay. Winning a million dollars requires an incredible amount of luck. If Diontae Johnson doesn’t injure his back does Chase Claypool score four times? If Prescott doesn’t suffer a tragic ankle injury do Mahomes lineups cruise to the top? The answer to both of these questions surrounding seemingly random occurrences is probably not. “JDUKE24” will tell you the same thing.

I picked Claypool as a flier cause I thought he had big play potential. I got lucky, I'm not a genius. But usually throw some cheaper guys I think won't be owned. I don't do this for a living lol. (or didn't)

— Justin Duke (@jdukeATX) October 12, 2020

That doesn’t make it a bad lineup. In fact, there are a number of pivots on this roster that were sharp decisions to make before the slate locked.

Finding Pivots in NFL DFS

The Game Stack and Secondary Stack

The obvious place to look for differentiation in this lineup is the choice to go with a Chiefs stack over a Cowboys stack. The most common Cowboys passing stack by ownership was Prescott (15.8%), CeeDee Lamb (16.2%), and Amari Cooper (12.2%). Ezekiel Elliott also came in at 30.8% ownership. This line chose to pay a little more for a slightly differentiated build.

It took an interesting approach to the Cowboys game though. Darius Slayton was the second-most popular play on the slate, but Devonta Freeman went largely unowned in the same game environment. Stacking the two without Daniel Jones or any Cowboys was an incredibly unique way to attack the week’s most popular game. Secondary stacks appeared in a third of winning Milly Maker lineups over the past two seasons. Many of those featured an offensive player and their defense but 12% still featured multiple skill position players from the same team without a quarterback. A secondary stack gives your roster access to another high-scoring game that just happens to feature fewer points or points per dollar than your primary stack.

Chase Claypool

We can’t talk about this lineup without examining Claypool. The Steelers third or fourth receiver scored three times through the air and once on the ground on Sunday. He was the key to winning large tournaments because of his low cost and ownership. Claypool was a solid pivot off Olamide Zaccheaus. The Falcons No. 3 receiver was rostered by a fifth of all lineups. The move to Claypool and rostering Gurley set this roster up well to capitalize on a Zaccheaus bust.

Receiver and Running Back Chalk

Chalk at the receiver position has continued to hit on a weekly basis. Running back chalk has been highly volatile compared to prior years. This lineup featured three of the four most popular plays at receiver. The trend toward more scoring could be playing a role in the increase in receiver predictability. Dallas opponents have scored points in every week, largely because the Cowboys offense forces them to play with pace to keep up. Their horrid defense also plays a role though.

Anderson has hit 99 yards in four of five games because Teddy Bridgewater has only fallen below 260 passing yards once this year. The combination of a new a creative offensive coordinator in Joe Brady and a new passer under center has transformed the Panthers into a consistent threat in the passing game. Anderson, as the leading receiver on the team, has hit as chalk on multiple occasions.

On the other side of things, there have been a lot of cheap running backs seeing impressive market share numbers but not the corresponding ownership. Joe Mixon was that guy last week and Freeman did enough this week to fill that role for this lineup. After playing little in his first game with the Giants, Freeman out-carried and out-targeted Wayne Gallman plus Dion Lewis two weeks ago. He saw 70.8% of the Giants’ running back carries in Week 5 and was just $4,600. Keep hunting for low-owned backs getting a disproportionate amount of touches relative to their price.

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